Does the “Hot Hand” Exist for WRs in Fantasy Football?
Introduction
In the world of fantasy football, the concept of the “hot hand” has long intrigued managers and analysts alike. Will a player who has performed exceptionally well in recent games continue to deliver strong performances, or is this just a statistical anomaly? This article delves into the data of NFL wide receivers over the past six seasons to investigate whether the hot hand phenomenon exists for them in fantasy football. By examining the consistency of scoring trends among top WRs, we aim to uncover patterns that could influence draft strategies and weekly lineup decisions.
For this analysis, I split up receivers into groups, based on whether they were the WR1, WR2, or WR3 for the season.
Trends
First, we can take a look at average fantasy points per week, to see if pass catchers generally heat up or cool down at any point during the season. The results are pretty weak — receivers stay fairly consistent at their level of scoring, regardless of depth chart position.
We can continue this idea by observing the probability of a WR being a bust in a given week. For this article, I qualified a bust as scoring less than eight points that week.
We see that at all levels, as the season progresses, receivers are more likely to bust. For WR3s, their likelihood of having a poor performance increases by about 10%, and for WR2s, just under. WR1s aren’t as affected by this trend, but in the final weeks, they are still a bit more susceptible to busting, likely due to teams benching their top guys in later weeks.
The Hot Hand
Now, what about the hot hand? If a WR puts up big numbers a few weeks in a row, does this mean they are less likely to do it again in the next week? Let’s find out.
First, I calculated the historical probability of a WR scoring 10 or more points in a given week, given that they scored 10 or more points in their previous three weeks as well (PPR scoring). The results were quite shocking. 74% of the time, WR1s are able to continue their output of 10 points or more. This number drops for WR2s and WR3s, becoming more of a toss-up.
If we expand this same question to any week given the previous five weeks the receiver scored 10 or more points, the results hold. In fact, the numbers increase a bit for WR1s and 2s.
Here, it is evident that top receivers stay hot. You can count on a WR1 to continue their production, even through five weeks! However, for WR2s, you can’t be so sure — their performance can go either way. WR3s, well, don’t expect them to stay hot.
Upping the point total to 15 or more, the results are nearly the same for three-week spans.
And shockingly, they hold for 15 or more points five weeks in a row as well. Keep in mind, however, the sample size gets much smaller in this case (only ~100 cases of this for WR1s in the past six seasons)
If we flip our thinking, we can check to see if receivers can get “cold.” Looking at the historical probability of receivers scoring under 10 points in a week given they scored under 10 points in the previous three weeks, we see the likelihood is low for WR1s and somewhat high for backups and third-strings.
Expanding this to five weeks in a row, the results are fairly similar. This is definitely cause for concern, as it tells us if your WR2 is struggling for multiple weeks in a row, they’ll have close to a 50% chance to continue their dry spell. A complete toss-up! Luckily, for your WR1s, you can expect them to snap out of it — although it still might be smart to proceed with caution.
Conclusion
The hot hand is real! For wide receivers in fantasy football, the hot hand is very strong — top receivers consistently putting up high numbers will continue to do so. The lower they are on the depth chart, however, the more of a toss-up it is on whether they’ll be able to maintain their performance streak. On the flip side, players who get cold can stay cold, especially if they are lower on the depth chart. While you should keep an eye out for WR2s who are consistently underperforming, it does appear that the top guys usually break their cold streaks. The bottom line is not to overthink it with your best receivers — ride the hot hand, and while you should proceed with caution during cold streaks, don’t get too discouraged during them.
That’s all for this article, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions!