Anomaly or New Norm? What to Make of QB Outliers for 2025 (Fantasy Football)
Every fantasy football season, players put up statistical numbers inconsistent with their preseason expectations or career averages. Sometimes it’s good, sometimes it’s bad, but it almost always leads to reactions the following season. Oftentimes, it leads to overreactions in the next season’s fantasy drafts.
So, how do we know if these unanticipated performances signal that the player’s skill has changed or if they are just aberrations that will self-correct? As with most things in fantasy football, there isn’t an easy answer, and a lot of nuance is involved when trying to figure it out.
In this article series, I’ll explore players who had what appeared to be outlier seasons in 2024. I’ll examine the player’s history, team situation, and any other factors that may have led to the massive improvement or decline. I’ll then attempt to determine whether last season was an anomaly that we should expect to regress to the mean, or if it’s the new norm that should be the expectation moving forward.
First up, QBs.
2024 Recap
In this edition last season, I wrote that while Brock Purdy should remain efficient, we probably shouldn’t expect him to stay north of 9.0 yards/attempt. That was spot on, as it fell to 8.5 yards/attempt, still good enough for third best in the NFL. I also accurately called for Joe Burrow to bounce back, but as you’ll see below, he exceeded expectations. I inaccurately predicted that Patrick Mahomes would see his TD rate and aDOT rise. His 4.5% TD rate was the exact same, and his aDOT technically went up, but only by 0.1 yards.
On to 2025.
The Stats
I’ll be looking at efficiency stats throughout this series. These per-attempt, per-target, or per-game stats are not perfect, but they give us a better understanding of a player’s ability in a system, as opposed to pure volume stats. Since players score fantasy points through yards and touchdowns, I’m using efficiency metrics based on those stats. For QBs, I chose to examine attempts/game, average depth of target (aDOT), and TD percentage, with a few others sprinkled in. I usually love looking at yards/attempt, but there were no screaming outliers in 2024. I also chose to ignore rookies this year, as we only have a single season of stats to look at.
Here are the QBs who were on the extreme ends of the stats last season.
Joe Burrow: 38.4 pass attempts/game, 6.6% TD rate, 1.4% INT rate.
Burrow was featured in this article last season for his unusually low 6.3 yards/attempt. That regressed to 7.5 yards/attempt in 2025, matching his career average. He makes an appearance in this year’s version for setting career-highs in both pass attempts/game and TD rate. He led the NFL with 652 total attempts in 2025, 68 more than runner-up Aaron Rodgers.
Separately, Burrow’s pass attempts, TD rate, and INT rate are all impressive, but not record-setting. However, they do become record-setting when you consider the fact that he accomplished them all in the same season. Among QBs to attempt at least 650 passes in a season, only seven have thrown TDs at a 6% clip or higher. Among those seven qualified QBs, Burrow’s TD rate in 2024 was the third highest, and his 1.4% INT rate was the lowest.
You can see those seven qualified QBs in the table below, sorted by season.
| Season | Player | Attempts | TD% | INT% |
| 2024 | Joe Burrow | 652 | 6.6% | 1.4% |
| 2021 | Tom Brady | 719 | 6.0% | 1.7% |
| 2013 | Drew Brees | 650 | 6.0% | 1.8% |
| 2013 | Peyton Manning | 659 | 8.3% | 1.5% |
| 2012 | Drew Brees | 670 | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| 2011 | Drew Brees | 657 | 7.0% | 2.1% |
| 2011 | Matthew Stafford | 663 | 6.2% | 2.4% |
In the end, Burrow finished as the QB3 in fantasy football for 2024, behind only Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Looking at his historical numbers from 2024, Burrow appears to be a prime candidate for regression. However, this Cincinnati team doesn’t look much different than last season. That team, for reference, scored the 6th most points in the league but only had a 9-8 record, mainly because they allowed the 7th most points. The defense was a problem for their team, but it was great for Burrow’s stats, as he and the offense had to keep the pedal to the metal in most games.
There is no reason to believe it will be any different in 2025, and in fact, the defense could be worse. Linebacker Germaine Pratt, who led the team in tackles last season, signed with the Raiders this offseason. As of this writing, All-Pro defensive end Trey Hendrickson and first-round draft pick Shemar Stewart remain unsigned. On top of all that, the Bengals’ strength of schedule is expected to be more difficult in 2025, according to Warren Sharp’s metrics.
While this may be bad news for the Bengals as a team, it means that Burrow’s pass volume projects to remain one of the highest in the league. The bigger question is, can he keep up the ultra-high efficiency? His 6.6% TD rate was the highest of his career, just more than a full percentage point above his career average of 5.5%. That number is likely to regress to the mean, but with the full offensive arsenal, including Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Mike Gesicki, and Chase Brown, all returning, Burrow should remain a premier fantasy QB, and his top-end production should be considered the norm for now.
Baker Mayfield: 7.2% TD Rate
Let’s stick with TD rate here. Baker Mayfield didn’t lead the NFL in the stat; that was Lamar Jackson at a ridiculous 8.6%. Still, his 7.2% was easily a career high, with his previous best coming in at 5.6% during his rookie campaign in 2018. This led to a career-high 41 passing touchdowns for Baker, which, combined with his 378 rushing yards, another career high, culminated in a QB4 finish on the season, just behind Joe Burrow.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Joe Burrow has put up elite numbers since entering the league. Lamar Jackson has topped a 6.9% or higher TD rate three times. It hasn’t been the same story for Mayfield’s career. After burning out in Cleveland, he appeared on the verge of becoming a perennial backup before getting revitalized by a short end-of-season stint with Sean McVay and the Rams before getting another chance to start in Tampa.
Before his phenomenal 2024 season, Mayfield’s career TD rate was a pedestrian 4.6%, making his most recent 7.2% rate appear to be an outlier that screams regression. This, as friend of the Ballers, JJ Zachariason, points out in the post below, is bad news for his prospective fantasy value in 2025.
Baker Mayfield had a touchdown rate of 7.2% last year.
There’ve been 15 quarterbacks since 2011 with next-season data who were +/- 0.5% in TD rate to Mayfield’s 2024 number. Every single one scored fewer fantasy points the following year. The group averaged a drop of 4.2 PPG.
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) July 10, 2025
Mayfield also topped a 70% completion rate for the first time in his career. In fact, he had never been above 65% before 2024. Then there is the fact that he also more than doubled his career high in rushing yards. His 2024 season looks like an anomalous performance that I don’t want to chase in 2025.
Dak Prescott – 3.6% TD Rate
On the other end of the TD efficiency spectrum, we find Dak Prescott. He was only throwing TDs at a 3.6% rate over the first half of the season, which translated to just eight through the first eight games. To add injury to insult, literally, he suffered a season-ending hamstring injury in Week 9.
It wasn’t all bad for Dak. He had three straight top 12 finishes from Weeks 3-5, including finishing as the QB1 in Week 3. However, his 14.6 fantasy points/game ranked 26th overall, right between Anthony Richardson and Trevor Lawrence.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Dak’s TD rate wasn’t the worst in the league; eight qualified QBs were worse. I chose to examine his numbers because, unlike the QBs behind him, his rate was significantly lower than his 5.2% career average heading into 2024. In fact, from 2021 to 2023, he threw TDs at a 6.1% rate.
Looking ahead to 2025, we have plenty of reasons to believe a healthy Dak will bounce back. While Mike McCarthy is out as head coach, there is still continuity for the offense as offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has been promoted to lead the Cowboys. They still have one of the best receivers in the game in CeeDee Lamb and a new explosive weapon in the passing game with George Pickens. With questions in the offensive backfield and on the defensive side of the ball, there is plenty of potential for an uptick in passing volume as well. If his TD rate regresses the way I’d expect, Dak can easily outperform his ADP
Tua Tagovailoa: 72.9% Completion Rate, 6.1 Yard aDOT
Tua catches a lot of flak in both the fantasy and real football communities, but he consistently puts up substantial numbers when he is on the field. Unfortunately, that was a problem again for him in 2024.
His 72.9% completion rate was a career high and the highest in the entire NFL. On the flipside, his 6.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT) was a career low and the lowest in the whole league. He had a 17-game pace of 4,430 passing yards and 30 touchdowns, but the problem was that he only played in 11 games.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Tua has always been recognized as an accurate passer, averaging a 68.1% completion rate over his five-year career. His 72.9% is higher than normal, but it isn’t shocking, especially considering the depressed aDOT. Therein lies the problem. The general theory is that Mike McDaniel changed Miami’s offense to protect Tua by getting the ball out early, but they took it to the extreme in 2024. Tua’s 6.1-yard aDOT was nearly a full yard shorter than the next lowest, Patrick Mahomes, at 6.9. It was a wild shift from McDaniel’s first year with the Dolphins, when Tua’s aDOT of 10.1 yards led the NFL.
Heading into 2025, it’s tough to predict how McDaniel and Tua will operate the offense. However, the fact that Jonnu Smith, whose 5.0-yard aDOT was the lowest among all WRs and TEs last season, was traded away could be a good sign. On the other hand, that could also mean more targets for De’Von Achane, who had a negative aDOT (-0.3) last season.
Ultimately, it’s difficult to envision Tua’s aDOT getting any lower, so 2024 was probably an anomaly. He may not revert to his double-digit aDOT ways of 2022, but it’s important to recall that he led the NFL with 4,819 passing yards in 2023 with a reasonable 8.1-yard aDOT. Of course, that was also the only season of his career so far that he played in all 17 games.
Anthony Richardson: 47.7% Completion Rate, 12.3 Yard aDOT
Richardson started 11 games at QB for the Colts in 2024, and he put up some wild numbers. He was essentially the exact opposite of Tua, leading the NFL with a 12.3-yard aDOT but finishing dead last with a 47.7% completion rate. His 3.0% TD rate was the third-worst in the league, and his 4.5% INT rate was the highest. His 45.4 yards/game and six TDs on the ground barely kept him fantasy relevant. He ended up 25th overall in fantasy points/game, finishing as a top-three fantasy QB in three weeks but also outside of the top 24 in three weeks.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Richardson’s competition percentage wasn’t just low in 2024; it was historically low. Only three QBs since the year 2000 have attempted over 100 passes and completed fewer than half of them.
| Season | Player | Attempts | Completion % |
| 2000 | Akili Smith | 267 | 44.2% |
| 2011 | Tim Tebow | 271 | 46.5% |
| 2024 | Anthony Richardson | 264 | 47.7% |
Akili Smith and Tim Tebow did not last long as NFL QBs, and Richardson won’t either if he can’t complete a higher percentage of his passes.
Now for his 12.3-yard aDOT, which was historically high. Richardson was the first QB with at least 99 dropbacks and an aDOT above 12 yards since Ryan Lindley in 2014. If the dropback threshold is raised to 299, we once again find Tim Tebow, who had a 13.2-yard aDOT in 2011.
These numbers are so extreme that they have to become anomalous if Anthony Richardson turns into a full-time NFL starter. He simply won’t get continued chances to see the field if his completion rate doesn’t improve. There are a few examples of QBs who improved their accuracy after shaky starts. Namely, Josh Allen and Cam Newton, who both hovered just north of 50% to start their careers. Let’s also remember just how raw Richardson still is as a QB.
Anthony Richardson has only started 28 games in his College + NFL career.
Other notable young QBs:
Cam Ward – 57 starts in College
Bo Nix – 78 starts in CFB + NFL
Michael Penix Jr – 48 starts in CFB + NFL
Jaxson Dart – 41 starts in College pic.twitter.com/ckwnGdEPuj— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) July 10, 2025
Even if Richardson doesn’t win the starting gig in August, the number four overall pick in 2023’s draft will likely get a look at some point in 2025. He’ll either improve his passing performance or be sent back to the bench, possibly for the rest of his career.