Anomaly or New Norm? What to Make of QB Outliers for 2024 (Fantasy Football)
Every fantasy football season, players put up statistical numbers inconsistent with their preseason expectations or career averages. Sometimes it’s good, like when Raheem Mostert finds the end zone 21 times. Sometimes it’s bad, like when Chris Godwin goes for over 1,000 receiving yards on 130 targets but only scores two touchdowns. These surprising seasons are difficult to predict but often cause overreactions in the next season’s fantasy drafts.
How do we know if these unanticipated performances signal that the player’s skill has changed or if they are just an aberration that will self-correct? As with most things in fantasy football, there isn’t an easy answer, and lots of nuance is involved when trying to figure it out.
In this article series, I’ll explore players who had what appeared to be outlier seasons in 2023. I’ll examine the player’s history, team situation, and any other factors that may have led to the massive improvement or decline. Then I’ll attempt to determine if it’s more likely that last season was an anomaly that we should expect to regress to the mean, or if it’s the new norm that should be the expectation moving forward.
First up, quarterbacks.
2023 Recap
In this edition last season, I predicted that Tua Tagovailoa and Brock Purdy may not be as efficient as 2022, but that they should remain near the top of the league. That was generally correct, though I will examine Purdy again this year. I also called for Kyler Murray to bounce back, which he more or less did once he finally got back on the field. Finally, I optimistically thought that Kenny Pickett had a chance to increase his atrocious touchdown percentage (technically he did improve, by a measly 0.1 percent).
The Stats
I’ll be looking at efficiency stats throughout this series. These per-attempt, per-target, or per-game stats are not perfect, but they give us a better understanding of a player’s ability in a system, as opposed to pure volume stats. Since players score fantasy points through yards and touchdowns, I’m using efficiency metrics based on those stats. For quarterbacks, I chose to examine yards/attempt, yards/game, average depth of target (aDOT), and touchdown percentage, with a few others sprinkled in.
Here are the quarterbacks on the extreme ends of those stats last season.
Brock Purdy: 9.6 Yards/Attempt
Last year this article kicked off with Tua Tagovailoa leading the league at 8.9 yards/attempt. Purdy blew that away in his second season, climbing up from an already impressive 8.1 yards/attempt as a rookie. For even more context, Purdy is one of only six quarterbacks ever to pass for over 9.0 yards/attempt with at least 300 attempts in a season. His mark of 9.6 yards/attempt is the second-highest ever among that group, trailing only Kurt Warner’s 2000 season where he hit 9.9 yards/attempt. If you raise the bar to 350+ attempts, Purdy’s rate becomes the highest ever.
BROCK PURDY IS IN A LEAGUE OF HIS OWN!
It’s actually insane how far apart he is from all other #NFL QB’s when it comes to Efficiency! #FTTB #49ers pic.twitter.com/vCmJpAA2GV
— 49ers & NFL News 24/7 (@49ersSportsTalk) July 9, 2024
Anomaly or New Norm?
When you put up one of the highest numbers of all time in an efficiency stat, it’s impossible to call it the norm. However, Purdy has been amazingly efficient in his first two NFL seasons. He’s now averaged 9.2 yards/attempt over a 25-game regular season sample size to go along with 7.9 yards/attempt in six playoff games. I should also mention that he hit at least a 7.0% TD rate in each of his first two seasons. We can’t expect him to set new records every season but, given the system, the supporting talent, and what he has shown so far, finishing near the top of the league in efficiency should be the norm for Purdy.
Joe Burrow: 6.3 Yards/Attempt
Burrow’s rate wasn’t the lowest in the league, but it was pretty close. His season ranked 25th out of 29 quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts last season, sandwiched right between Kenny Pickett and Zach Wilson. It was the lowest rate of his career and the first time he was under 7.0 yards/attempt since his rookie season.
Anomaly or New Norm?
It was a rough year for Burrow. He spent the first month of the season dealing with a calf strain that, while he played through it, seemed to hamper his performance. He averaged a miserable 4.8 yards/attempt over the first four weeks, then saw that number climb to 7.5 yards/attempt from Weeks 5-9. Just as he was heating up, a wrist injury in Week 10 ended Burrow’s season. It’s reasonable to expect a bounce back from Burrow if he has a clean bill of health heading into 2024.
Bryce Young: 5.5 Yards/Attempt, 2.1% TD Rate
Young had the lowest yards/attempt in the league last season and joined Josh Dobbs (5.9) as the only two QBs under 6.0 yards/attempt. Since 2014, there have been 292 instances of a QB attempting 300+ passes in a season. Of those 292, Young’s 5.5 yards/attempt is tied with Derek Carr’s 2014 rookie campaign for dead last. His 2.1% TD rate was second-lowest in the league, only ahead of Kenny Pickett’s 1.9% rate. It is also in the same ballpark as Trevor Lawrence’s rookie TD rate of 2.0% in 2021.
Anomaly or New Norm?
You can’t completely judge a QB on his rookie season, but will this be the norm for Young’s career or will we look back on it as an anomaly? As brutal as his debut season was, the former number-one overall pick will get a chance to reboot in season two. The top reason to be optimistic is Dave Canales’s arrival in Carolina. Canales has been credited with turning around the careers of Geno Smith in Seattle and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay. Now he gets the chance to work his QB whispering skills on Young. The Panthers also brought in Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette, and Jonathon Brooks as potential offensive weapon upgrades. If all this leads to improved numbers from Young in 2024, he’ll be worth taking late in fantasy drafts.
C.J. Stroud: 273.9 Yards/Game, 1.0% INT Rate
Stoud’s rookie season could not have been more different than Young’s. His 273.9 passing yards/game led all QBs who played in nine or more games. Joe Flacco (323.2) and Kirk Cousins (291.4) were the only two ahead of him but did not meet the games played threshold. It was the second-highest average ever for a rookie with the same nine games played threshold applied. You can see the top five in the table below.
| Rookie QB | Year | Yards/Game | Games |
| Justin Herbert | 2020 | 289.1 | 15 |
| C.J. Stroud | 2023 | 273.9 | 15 |
| Andrew Luck | 2012 | 273.4 | 16 |
| Joe Burrow | 2020 | 268.8 | 10 |
| Baker Mayfield | 2018 | 266.1 | 14 |
His interception rate was also exceptionally low. He threw a pick on just 1.0% of his passes, trailing only Dak Prescott (0.9%) for the lowest ever by a rookie. His yards/game average and high TD/INT ratio put him in elite company.
C.J. Stroud is the fourth QB in the last 35 seasons to lead the NFL in these categories 🔥
It took the other three at least seven seasons to accomplish what he did in his rookie year 🤯 pic.twitter.com/idvXqiUv5n
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) July 8, 2024
Anomaly or New Norm?
Again, we can’t define a quarterback’s career by his rookie season. However, Stroud’s numbers put him in some elite company to start a career. The addition of Stefon Diggs, a full season of Tank Dell, and the newly extended Nico Collins put Houston in the discussion for the best wide receiver trio in the league. Dalton Schultz is a dependable presence at tight end and Joe Mixon has always been a steady contributor out of the backfield. With the Houston coaching staff intact, there’s no reason to believe Stroud will suffer a sophomore slump.
Will Levis: 11.1 Yard aDOT, 58.4% Completion Rate
We have one more of last year’s rookies to talk about. Will Levis led the entire NFL and was the first QB to top an 11.0-yard aDOT since Joe Flacco in 2020. While his willingness to chuck it deep was entertaining, his 58.4% completion rate left something to be desired. It ranked dead last among qualifying QBs. If you want to see all of the shenanigans, you can check out the clip of every Levis snap from last season that Borg posted.
I asked myself the question… "Can it work? Can Will Levis dropkick the doubters?"
Every. Single. Will. Levis. Play. Go! 📽️ 🍌 pic.twitter.com/34fQaJh26a
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) July 8, 2024
Anomaly or New Norm?
Will Levis’ surroundings will look much different in year two. Tennessee is an offense that went through a complete overhaul this offseason. Defensive-minded Mike Vrabel is out as head coach and replaced by Cincinnati’s former offensive coordinator, Brian Callahan. The team also spent up on free agents Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard and drafted offensive tackle JC Latham at number seven overall. Levis will get every chance to succeed, but it’s hard to imagine him completely reigning in his gun-slinging mentality. It can be expected that he remains near the top of the league in aDOT, but he’ll need to improve elsewhere to be a trustworthy fantasy option.
Patrick Mahomes: 6.8 Yard aDOT, 4.5% TD Rate
This last outlier was the most surprising to me. Mahomes, generally considered the best quarterback in football, ranked 41st among 45 qualified QBs in aDOT. It was the lowest of his career and the first time under 7.6 yards. The lower aDOT technically resulted in the highest completion percentage of his career, but at 67.2%, it was only 0.1% higher than in 2022. Despite the lower aDOT, Mahomes also threw touchdowns at a career-low rate (4.5%) and interceptions at a career-high rate (2.3%)
Anomaly or New Norm?
Of all the outliers in this article, this feels the most anomalous. The combination of Kansas City’s wide receiver talent and the way opposing defenses played to take away the deep ball forced Mahomes and the Chiefs to take advantage of openings at shallower depth. Rashee Rice, who led all Kansas City wideouts in receptions, yards, and touchdowns, had an aDOT of just 5.2 yards, the lowest among WRs with at least 50 targets.
However, Kansas City’s offseason moves suggest that they won’t prefer to dink and dunk the ball down the field in 2024. They let cardio king Marquez Valdes-Scantling walk and replaced him with Marquise Brown and rookie Xavier Worthy, two speedy wideouts who can get downfield. Mahomes will still take what the defense gives him, but it would be shocking if his aDOT didn’t rise this season. It would be even more shocking if his career-low 4.5% TD rate didn’t naturally regress positively.