Anomaly or New Norm? What to Make of QB Outliers for 2023 (Fantasy Football)
Every fantasy football season, we see players put up statistical numbers inconsistent with their preseason expectations or career averages. Sometimes it’s good, like when Jamaal Williams rushes for 17 touchdowns. Sometimes it’s bad, like when Diontae Johnson fails to find the end zone on 147 targets. These surprising seasons are difficult to predict but can easily cause overreactions in the next season’s fantasy drafts.
How do we know if these unanticipated performances signal that the player’s skill has actually changed or if they are just an aberration that will self-correct? As with most things in fantasy football, there isn’t an easy answer, and a lot of nuance is involved when trying to figure it out.
In this article series, I’ll explore players that had what appeared to be outlier seasons in 2022. I’ll examine the player’s history, team situation, and any other factors that may have led to the massive improvement or decline. I’ll then attempt to determine if it’s more likely that last season was an anomaly that we should expect to regress to the mean, or if it’s the new norm and what we should expect moving forward.
First up, quarterbacks.
The Stats
I’ll be looking at efficiency stats throughout this series. These per-attempt stats are not perfect, but they give us a better understanding of a player’s ability, as opposed to pure volume stats. Since players score fantasy points through yards and touchdowns, I’m using efficiency metrics based on those stats. For quarterbacks, I chose to examine yards/attempt and touchdown percentage.
Here are the quarterbacks that were on the extreme ends of those stats last season.
Tua Tagovailoa: 8.9 Yards/Attempt
After a mostly disappointing start to his career, Tua put up some legendary performances in his third season. His 8.9 yards/attempt led the league and was the fifth-best of the last decade. It was significantly higher than the league average of 6.6 yards/attempt, which was also his career average over his first two seasons. His touchdown rate also skyrocketed to 6.3%, up from 4.0% over his first two seasons.
Anomaly or New Norm?
There were some pretty obvious changes to Tua’s situation in 2022. First-year head coach Mike McDaniel came over from San Fransisco and installed a new offense, which Tua executed masterfully. The Dolphins also added bonafide stud wideout Tyreek Hill. First-round pick Jaylen Waddle, who will be featured later in this series, also took a huge step forward in his second season.
It makes sense that an offense featuring two elite playmakers would lead to an increased yards/attempt for the quarterback that leads it. It’s also easy to forget that Tua was a blue-chip prospect and first-round draft pick that entered the league off of a major hip injury. He may not be able to repeat 8.9 yards/attempt, but given his pedigree, offensive system, and surrounding talent, I expect him to remain near the top of the league in efficiency.
Kyler Murray: 6.1 Yards/Attempt
At the bottom of the league, we find Kyler Murray. His 6.1 yards/attempt ranked 38th among quarterbacks who attempted at least 150 passes in 2022. That’s behind the likes of Carson Wentz (6.4) and Kenny Pickett (6.2). It was even more disappointing considering that he threw for a career-best 7.9 yards/attempt in 2021. He wasn’t quite last in 2022, finishing ahead of Joe Flacco (5.5). His 3.6% touchdown rate was the worst of his career, ranking 23rd in the league.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Multiple factors contributed to Kyler’s lackluster season. He was without superstar wideout DeAndre Hopkins for the first six weeks of the season, then struggled through a hamstring injury in the middle of the year before tearing his ACL in Week 14. All in all, it felt like a lost season for the former number-one draft pick.
The Cardinals decided to move on from Kliff Kingsbury and his “horizontal raid” offense. That should be good news for Murray, but there is still trepidation considering his injury recovery timeline and the departure of DeAndre Hopkins. He should see some positive regression toward his career average of 7.0 yards/attempt when he returns to full strength, but there are still plenty of unknowns on the horizon for Murray and the Cardinals.
Brock Purdy: 7.6% TD Rate
From the moment he took over for San Fransisco in Week 13, Purdy was on fire. The 49ers won all six games led by Purdy to end the season, and he threw for multiple touchdowns in each game. It’s a relatively small sample size, but his 7.6% touchdown rate led the league and is the 11th best over the last decade among quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts.
Anomaly or New Norm?
Since it was his rookie season, Purdy doesn’t have a professional precedent to compare with his 2022 statistics. He put up a 5.5% touchdown rate in his four years at Iowa State, though comparing their offense to the Mike Shanahan system isn’t exactly a fair juxtaposition. He is also surrounded by players who excel at pass catching and YAC at every offensive skill position, making throwing touchdowns just a bit easier.
Maintaining a 7.6% touchdown rate for an entire season may be a bit lofty for Purdy, especially as he recovers from the elbow injury he suffered in last season’s playoffs. Still, given his surroundings and outstanding showing last season, it would not be surprising at all if he remained above league average.
Kenny Pickett: 1.8% TD Rate
At the other end of the touchdown rate spectrum, we find Kenny Pickett, the first quarterback selected in the 2022 NFL Draft. He had a much different rookie experience than “Mr. Irrelevant” Brock Purdy. His seven touchdowns on 389 attempts made him the only quarterback in the league with a touchdown rate below two percent. It was a worse rate than Zach Wilson (2.5%) and teammate Mitch Trubisky (2.2%)
Anomaly or New Norm?
Like most rookie quarterbacks, Pickett has plenty of room for improvement. The good news? First-round quarterbacks, even the ones who struggle as rookies, tend to improve if given a second year to start, as exemplified in the following tweet.
Over the last decade, these are the QBs drafted in the 1st round with under a 3% TD rate as rookie starters who retained the job the next season. They all improved in year two, some more than others
Kenny Pickett had a 1.8% TD rate as a rookie in 2022. What will it be in 2023? pic.twitter.com/QhWtECQ6Rb
— Aaron Larson (@aalarson) July 7, 2023
Unfortunately, Pickett’s situation hasn’t changed much headed into 2023. Matt Canada remains in charge of the Steelers’ offense, so we shouldn’t expect much stylistic change. The only new offensive weapon in Pittsburgh, and I use the term “weapon” loosely in this case, is dilapidated Allen Robinson. They did improve the offensive line through free agency and the draft, which allows for some optimism.
Ultimately, Pickett improving his touchdown rate comes down to natural regression and him becoming a better quarterback in year two.