Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 5 (Fantasy Football)

Week 4 brought plenty of drama and surprises. Patrick Mahomes, in a bizarre twist, kneecapped his best receiver Rashee Rice after an interception, leaving fantasy managers frustrated and saddened. Amari Cooper saw an 82-yard touchdown erased by a questionable holding call, robbing him of a huge day. And, of course, Nico Collins is proving to be unstoppable, continuing his breakout in the Texans’ offense.

By focusing on key metrics like TPRR, YPRR, and 1D/RR, we can get a clearer picture of which players are poised for positive or negative regression. Let’s dig into the data and find out who’s set to shine and who could be a risk moving forward. Plus, I’ll wrap things up with an updated Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to highlight the biggest movers of the week!

First Downs per Route Run (1D/RR)

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Overperformer: Wan’Dale Robinson (New York Giants)

1D/RR: 0.059
Result: 11 receptions, 71 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.6 (half-PPR)

Wan’Dale Robinson overperformed his 0.059 1D/RR, largely by being a PPR merchant who’s benefiting from high target volume but not doing much with those opportunities. Despite seeing plenty of space after the catch, Robinson struggled to turn those looks into first downs, leaving a lot of potential on the table. He’s racking up receptions without making a significant impact on his team. Meanwhile, it’s clear that Malik Nabers is Daniel Jones‘ top read, with Robinson as the second option on most drop-backs. He can be a flex play with a decent floor, but his role will limit any real upside or ceiling.

Underperformer: Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals)

1D/RR: 0.179
Result: 6 receptions, 60 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9 (half-PPR)

Tee Higgins posted a 0.179 1D/RR in Week 4 but only managed nine half-PPR fantasy points, despite seeing nine targets. With the Bengals holding the lead for most of the game, his opportunities were somewhat limited, but the target share and 1D/RR suggest better days are ahead. His involvement in the offense remains steady, and as long as he keeps seeing that volume, Higgins should be primed for bigger performances moving forward. Keep him locked in as a strong play with potential for improvement.

Targets per Route Run (TPRR)

Overperformer: Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs)

TPRR: 0.103
Result: 3 receptions, 73 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 14.8 (half-PPR)

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Xavier Worthy overperformed with a 0.103 TPRR in Week 4, continuing his trend as a boom-or-bust player. This was highlighted by his 54-yard touchdown, which accounted for a massive 80.4% of his total fantasy points. Worthy’s big-play ability is undeniable, but relying on him for consistent production remains risky. However, with Rashee Rice now hurt, the opportunity for Worthy to earn more targets in the offense is there, potentially giving him a shot at more consistent volume moving forward. Still, expect the highs and lows in his weekly output.

Underperformer: Jakobi Meyers (Las Vegas Raiders)

TPRR: 0.385
Result: 5 receptions, 49 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.4 (half-PPR)

Jakobi Meyers posted an impressive 0.385 TPRR in Week 4, showing his heavy involvement in the Raiders’ offense. However, he only managed to bring in five of his 10 targets, leaving some points on the table. With Davante Adams potentially on the move, Meyers could see even more consistent volume, though the Raiders’ shaky quarterback play doesn’t make it a fun ride. Still, the target share should be there, making him a valuable asset moving forward despite the uncertainty at QB.

Yards per Route Run (YPRR)

Overperformer: DJ Moore (Chicago Bears)

YPRR: 0.846
Result: 3 receptions, 22 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.7 (half-PPR)

DJ Moore posted a disappointing 0.846 YPRR in Week 4, but he salvaged his day with a touchdown in the back of the end zone. While he was able to find the end zone, his lack of consistent production indicates that he and Caleb Williams are still not fully in sync. Hopefully, as they develop their connection over the coming weeks, Moore’s top-tier ceiling can be unlocked. If they can get on the same page, he has the talent to provide much more significant fantasy contributions.

Underperformer: Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos)

YPRR: 2.5
Result: 3 receptions, 60 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.5 (half-PPR)

Courtland Sutton had a decent performance with a YPRR of 2.5 in Week 4, but he only managed to rack up 60 receiving yards. Ironically, Bo Nix, the quarterback, also threw for just 60 yards, making for a lackluster offensive showing. The Broncos narrowly edged out the Jets 10-9 in what was arguably the worst game of the week. While Sutton is by far the go-to receiver in this offense, the struggles under Nix make it hard to feel confident in him as a must-start option right now. With the team’s overall inconsistency, it’s tough to trust Sutton in your lineup and I would only consider him in a pinch if the matchup makes sense.

Applying PRS to Predict Fantasy Points

Khalil Shakir is shaping up to be a strong buy candidate at this point in the season. He’s becoming Josh Allen’s go-to guy when the team needs a first down or an outlet pass, consistently making key plays when it matters. His rapport with Allen, especially in crucial situations, makes him a valuable fantasy asset with upside.

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Jauan Jennings has been making the most of his extra playing time with both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel missing time. With Brandon Aiyuk not playing up to expectations, Jennings has seen an increased target share and capitalized on it. On top of that, Josh Downs looked excellent in his return from an offseason injury, showing promise as a key piece in his team’s offense moving forward. With all this in mind, here are the top 24 in season-long PRS rankings as of now.