Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 17 (Fantasy Football)
In the spirit of the way this article is usually written, I cannot say that Amari Cooper was an under or overperformer. Still, I felt it wrong to write this article and not mention his legendary performance. Amari decided that he was going to win folks’ semifinal matches by himself in Week 16 with an absurd stat line of 11 receptions, 265 yards, and two touchdowns. Those 44 half-ppr points were 10.5 more than the second-best receiver George Pickens. If you had Amari Cooper and could take advantage of that superpower in the semis, then go ahead and get you a Cooper jersey if you win it all. But without further ado, let’s jump into our advanced statistics again this week by looking at aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and an update to my PRS (Predictive Receiver Score). As we get closer to the end of the year, use this PRS calculation to your advantage for moves in keeper or dynasty leagues once your trading window opens back up.
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Overperformer: Devonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles)
aDOT: 6.6 yards
Result: 4 receptions, 79 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 15.9 (half-PPR)
The Eagles survived Tommy Cutlets and Tyrod Taylor on Christmas day to take back hold of the NFC East. The Eagles made everything look extremely easy on offense last year, but this year it hasn’t had the same look to it. Maybe that is due to Shane Steichen being with the Colts now, or the fact that Jalen Hurts has looked a bit gimpy all year. Whatever the case may be, Devonta has continued to produce this season, but the inconsistency has led to some weeks you’d have been better off starting someone else. Devonta ranks as the 15th WR in half-PPR scoring, but it has been an up-and-down ride for sure. Hopefully, anyone playing him in the finals gets the up part of that ride this week.
Underperformer: Jalen Tolbert (Dallas Cowboys)
aDOT: 24.5 yards
Result: 2 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.1 (half-PPR)
It is nice to see Tolbert getting a bit more run the last few weeks and getting down the field targets. Tolbert could be a sneaky dynasty add if you have any room or a player you can drop. Next season he will be entering his third year, and Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup will both be one year older. Tolbert’s involvement in the offense down the stretch gives a glimmer of hope into what he could be as a downfield, home run hitter for the Cowboys, and I suspect his value goes up next year as well, even if it is just incrementally.
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 17.
Overperformer: A.T. Perry (New Orleans Saints)
TPRR: 3.2%
Result: 1 receptions, 35 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10 (half-PPR)
The New Orleans Saints are the kings of looking lost on Thursday Night Football and making the final score look respectable at the very end. This team is one of my least favorite to watch this year and that is mainly because of Derek Carr. The offense is way too talented to look this inept, and on Thursday, their ineptitude even affected Alvin Kamara. That’s where I draw the line! Nonetheless, A.T. Perry has been a solid option down the field in jump ball type of scenarios this year, but Derek Carr hardly ever throws a ball like that until they are down 30 points. Perry could be an interesting dynasty option to keep an eye on especially if they blow it up and go in a different direction at QB.
Underperformer: Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills)
TPRR: 44.4%
Result: 5 receptions, 29 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.4 (half-PPR)
Stefon Diggs‘ season has been exceptionally unremarkable. The first-round pick in fantasy drafts this year has not been able to deliver on that price tag, and over the past few weeks under OC Joe Brady, he has received fewer opportunities. The offense has started to implement a lot more running of the football and the routes run for the entire wideout group is way down. A 44% target per route run should result in an epic day for Diggs, but when that number is based on running only 18 routes then it’s no wonder we see such a low output for fantasy. If you are in the championship game this week and have Stefon Diggs, I do not envy your decision on whether or not to play him.
Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
Overperformer: Brandin Cooks (Dallas Cowboys)
YPRR: 0.063
Result: 2 receptions, 14 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.4 (half-PPR)
Cooks has had a bit of a touchdown uptick over the past seven games, scoring four TDs. The problem for fantasy football managers is that if he does not score a touchdown he is a real landmine for your starting lineup. Brandin hasn’t reeled in more than four receptions in a game all season except one time (Week 10 against the Giants). There is a real chance he wasn’t even played that week as he had just scored 1.2 points the week prior. Cooks is coming to the end of his great career and he is still helping the Cowboys get on the scoreboard, but his time as a fantasy asset may be up.
Underperformer: Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)
YPRR: 2.94
Result: 1 receptions, 50 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.5 (half-PPR)
Jaylen Waddle has had one of the oddest fantasy years I can remember. He pops as a top-12 wide receiver in all the advanced metrics, but he is barely scraping by as a top-24 wide receiver in actual fantasy points. The buying opportunity for Waddle could be as good as it will ever get. The manager in my league that has Waddle isn’t even playing him this week. That is where we are at! I will be making a few offers in the offseason for sure. When Waddle gets the ball he produces, but the reason his value in dynasty has dropped a bit is because he always gets banged up and he simply hasn’t seen the ball come his way enough. I hope for him that turns around next year because his peripheral measurables are awesome and I want to see him ball out.
Applying Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward
If you would like to see how I came up with my PRS calculation or the correlation numbers behind it, take a look at my first article in this series.
Here are the Top 24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 16:
| Player | PRS | Predicted FP/G | Actual FP/G | Over/Under Predicted |
| Tyreek Hill | 112.6 | 22.5 | 20.65 | -1.85 |
| Justin Jefferson | 77.29 | 15.01 | 16.48 | 1.47 |
| Nico Collins | 76.11 | 14.76 | 13.55 | -1.2 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 75.68 | 14.67 | 16.73 | 2.06 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 73.66 | 14.24 | 13.49 | -0.75 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 73.21 | 14.14 | 11.53 | -2.61 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 72.86 | 14.07 | 16.36 | 2.3 |
| Puka Nacua | 72.32 | 13.96 | 14.05 | 0.09 |
| A.J. Brown | 71.83 | 13.85 | 15.46 | 1.61 |
| Keenan Allen | 70.49 | 13.57 | 16.92 | 3.36 |
| Mike Evans | 69.93 | 13.45 | 15.39 | 1.94 |
| Rashee Rice | 68.12 | 13.06 | 10.67 | -2.4 |
| Deebo Samuel | 64.49 | 12.29 | 11.22 | -1.07 |
| Stefon Diggs | 63 | 11.98 | 13.53 | 1.56 |
| Tank Dell | 62.73 | 11.92 | 12.4 | 0.48 |
| Chris Olave | 62.21 | 11.81 | 12.04 | 0.23 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 61.41 | 11.64 | 14.58 | 2.94 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 60.6 | 11.47 | 12.84 | 1.37 |
| DJ Moore | 59.48 | 11.23 | 13.17 | 1.94 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 59.25 | 11.18 | 10.69 | -0.49 |
| Davante Adams | 59.22 | 11.17 | 11.31 | 0.14 |
| Amari Cooper | 59.1 | 11.15 | 12.73 | 1.58 |
| Cooper Kupp | 56.08 | 10.51 | 11.14 | 0.63 |
| Christian Kirk | 55.51 | 10.39 | 10.44 | 0.05 |
It is a real shame that Tyreek Hill won’t win MVP, but I understand why. This wide receiver season will go down as one of the best of all time, and he may not even win Offensive Player of the Year because of Christian McCaffrey. Nevertheless, what a great season for Tyreek, and I hope he continues to produce at similar levels for the rest of his career, because man is it fun to watch. If you are in the finals this week, good luck. If you are trying to avoid the toilet bowl trophy, I wish you luck as well. Thanks for reading this year and happy holidays to you and yours!