Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 16 (Fantasy Football)
If you are still alive and fighting in the fantasy playoffs, congratulations. If you are not, then I applaud you for using your valuable time to visit and read my article once again. We saw some performances in the first round of the playoffs that probably eliminated a lot of good teams in your leagues. Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins, Keenan Allen, and Chris Olave all missed the week and then other players may have hurt your team worse by playing (looking at you DeAndre). But without further ado, let’s jump into our advanced statistics again this week by looking at aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and an update to my PRS (Predictive Receiver Score). As we get closer to the end of the year, use this PRS calculation to your advantage for moves in keeper or dynasty leagues once your trading window opens back up.
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Overperformer: Curtis Samuel (Washington Commanders)
aDOT: 8.1 yards
Result: 5 receptions, 41 receiving yards, 2 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 18.6 (half-PPR)
Sam Howell gets benched, Cooper Kupp has a great game, and are the Rams going to upset someone on wild-card weekend? The Rams were shutting down the Commanders for three quarters and then entered Jacoby Brissett. He led the Commanders on two scoring drives to end the game and looked sharp out there throwing the pill. Curtis Samuel caught two touchdowns from two different QBs to bolster his week. He is a deeper league add this week, and although production is not guaranteed, it is nice to see him out there on the field getting targets in the offense. This week against the Jets he may not be a great play and this game could get sloppy, but against San Francisco in Week 17 they could be down by 100 and have to pass the ball 50 times.
Underperformer: DeAndre Hopkins (Tennessee Titans)
aDOT: 22.4 yards
Result: 2 receptions, 21 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 3.1 (half-PPR)
Will Levis is still throwing the ball deep to DeAndre, but his nine targets last week only amassed 3.1 half-ppr points, unfortunately. If you made it through to the next round with DeAndre then you can thank the fantasy lords for that one. Tennessee faces the Seahawks in Week 16, and although that looks like a solid matchup on paper, the Seahawks are a desperate team fighting to make the playoffs, and Tennessee is just a complete wild card. It is hard to trust that offense right now, but there aren’t many players that get nine targets like Hopkins, so it will be hard to go away from him this week. If you play him, just know that he could easily sink your chances at a ship this week.
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 16.
Overperformer: Demarcus Robinson (Los Angeles Rams)
TPRR: 7.9%
Result: 2 receptions, 44 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.4 (half-PPR)
Demarcus Robinson had a nice week for Los Angeles and he has taken over the Tutu Atwell role in the offense. He most likely won’t get many targets but he will get designed touches in the run game so you do have a semblance of a floor here. I doubt many teams will need to start him, but in deeper leagues or dynasty, he may be worth adding just in case of emergency.
Underperformer: Rashod Bateman (Baltimore Ravens)
TPRR: 33.3%
Result: 3 receptions, 39 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.4 (half-PPR)
Baltimore didn’t have to throw the ball all that often on Sunday night against the Jaguars, and that led to Bateman’s high TPRR. He only ran 18 routes and he did not do much with them, but he is seeing targets and Lamar is looking his way. I would never think of starting Rashod this week, but I do see a game against the 49ers coming up where they should be trying to throw the ball a bit more. Rashod isn’t worth an add at this time, but I do want to keep an eye on how he finishes the season in regard to next year.
Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
Overperformer: Jakobi Meyers (Las Vegas Raiders)
YPRR: 1.0
Result: 2 receptions, 32 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.2 (half-PPR)
In a game where the Chargers gave up in front of America, Jakobi was able to score one through the air and by throwing one as well. Can’t count on that every week of course, but Jakobi has been solid this year and should continue to be a focal part of this offense. In games where they actually have to try, he will be a viable option and can definitely be started this week against the Chiefs where they should be trailing and passing the ball quite a bit.
Underperformer: Jerry Jeudy (Denver Broncos)
YPRR: 3.22
Result: 3 receptions, 74 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.9 (half-PPR)
I have officially given up on Jerry Jeudy. I don’t know if Steve Smith ruined his psyche or what, but he has been plain bad this year. He doesn’t get two feet in bounds near the sideline, doesn’t make explosive plays enough, and just has not been reliable in any sense of the word. If you have any other options on your squad, please go elsewhere. I do not know if Jeudy possesses any name credibility anymore, but I would trade him in any dynasty league I am in. Courtland Sutton has been the guy for this Broncos team and Russell Wilson, and I see no reason they wouldn’t bring him back next year. Hopefully, Jeudy can get it together to end the season and restore some of the old faith we had in him, but I grow more and more concerned about that ever happening.
Applying Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward
If you would like to see how I came up with my PRS calculation or the correlation numbers behind it, take a look at my first article in this series.
Here are the Top 24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 15:
| Player | PRS | Predicted FP/G | Actual FP/G | Over/Under Predicted |
| Tyreek Hill | 115.31 | 23.08 | 21.13 | -1.95 |
| Nico Collins | 79.21 | 15.42 | 13.87 | -1.55 |
| Justin Jefferson | 76.79 | 14.9 | 15.53 | 0.63 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 76.44 | 14.83 | 13.42 | -1.4 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 74.63 | 14.44 | 16.44 | 1.99 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 73.44 | 14.19 | 11.99 | -2.2 |
| A.J. Brown | 72.84 | 14.07 | 15.78 | 1.71 |
| Deebo Samuel | 72.22 | 13.93 | 11.6 | -2.33 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 71.47 | 13.77 | 15.88 | 2.11 |
| Rashee Rice | 70.92 | 13.66 | 10.81 | -2.85 |
| Keenan Allen | 70.49 | 13.57 | 16.92 | 3.36 |
| Mike Evans | 69.74 | 13.41 | 14.76 | 1.36 |
| Puka Nacua | 68.36 | 13.11 | 13.13 | 0.01 |
| Stefon Diggs | 63.18 | 12.01 | 14.11 | 2.1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 62.97 | 11.97 | 11.24 | -0.73 |
| Tank Dell | 62.73 | 11.92 | 12.4 | 0.48 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 61.41 | 11.64 | 14.58 | 2.94 |
| DJ Moore | 61.37 | 11.63 | 13.88 | 2.25 |
| Davante Adams | 61.28 | 11.61 | 12.06 | 0.45 |
| Michael Pittman Jr. | 60.6 | 11.47 | 12.84 | 1.37 |
| Chris Olave | 59.63 | 11.26 | 11.68 | 0.42 |
| Cooper Kupp | 56.03 | 10.5 | 11.43 | 0.93 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 55.78 | 10.44 | 7.16 | -3.29 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 55.56 | 10.4 | 12.63 | 2.23 |
Jaylen Waddle finally had his boom game this past weekend with no Tyreek Hill, Rashee Rice is a star, and prayers for Michael Pittman Jr. Fantasy football is a fun, gut-wrenching, glorious game we play and through it all, you have made it to the semis. Injuries, pooped in his big boy pants weeks, and plain dumb luck, but you are still alive and fighting for the ship. In the iconic words of Rocky, “I didn’t hear no bell.” Take this unwavering determination into your semi-final matchups this week and pummel the competition.