Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 12
The football season always feels like it is taking forever to get here when I am waiting for it in the summer. Then, the season starts, you blink, and it is more than halfway over. The good times do go by too fast. Heading into week 12 we have seen a litany of injuries to key players and with many quarterbacks being among those injuries we have seen some weird fantasy output this year. Nothing we can do about it unfortunately, but we can at least dig into the stats and try to find an edge for our teams. Let’s look at some of the advanced statistics from last week to help us make sound fantasy decisions this week. We will look at aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and an update to my PRS (Predictive Receiver Score).
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Overperformer: Amari Cooper (Cleveland Browns)
aDOT: 6.9 yards
Result: 4 receptions, 34 receiving yards, 0 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.4 (half-PPR)
Amari Cooper being lumped into the overperformer section of this article with 5.4 fantasy points is, well, concerning. Dorian Thompson-Robinson was making just his 2nd NFL start, but with DTR at the helm, Cooper managers should be worried about the prospects of starting him down the stretch here. DTR and the Browns did face the Steelers so I will reserve judgement on his rest of season outlook for now. But if I can move Amari due to his name value and get a decent floor play type of piece, I think I would heavily consider it.
Underperformer: Tre Tucker (Las Vegas Raiders)
aDOT: 17.6 yards
Result: 2 receptions, 36 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 4.6 (half-PPR)
Adian O’Connell was 5th in week 11 with an aDOT of 11.4. If he is going to continue to push the ball down the field then Tre Tucker should start to see decent fantasy days. Tucker was targeted 7 times by AOC and with a deep average depth of target he could be in line for a boom game or two soon. The Raiders’ schedule to end the season is quite filled with games that should see decent offensive output from their opposition, so the opportunities for Raiders pass catchers will be plenty. It will be fun to see if AOC can pull through and buoy these weapons for the fantasy playoff run.
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 12.
Overperformer: Rashod Bateman (Baltimore Ravens)
TPRR: 8.0%
Result: 1 receptions, 10 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 7.5 (half-PPR)
It has been a disappointing season for Bateman, and things do not seem to be improving. Lamar Jackson does not seem interested in looking his way much of the time and that has led to a horrible output in fantasy this year. He brought down an acrobatic catch in the endzone, and thank goodness because he only saw two targets, so he was inches away from another goose egg for fantasy managers. Not that anybody is or should be starting him at this point, honestly even rostering him in most league settings does not make sense, but with Mark Andrews going down for most of the season, it will be interesting to see if he can gain any traction over the coming games.
Underperformer: DeAndre Hopkins (Tennessee Titans)
TPRR: 31.3%
Result: 4 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 1 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 13.9 (half-PPR)
DeAndre had a touchdown and still ended up in the underperforming section which is not what we normally see. But when you see a 30+ percent TPRR I expect to get over 15 points most of the time from a player getting that workload. Will Levis started out hot with his 4 TD performance, but reality has quickly set back in and he’s been pedestrian the last few games. Fantasy managers will get a mixed bag for the rest of the season with opponents that they are facing. Hopefully, we get more of the Levis from his first start down the stretch and get some prime D-Hop performances to go with it!
Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
Overperformer: Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers)
YPRR: 0.6
Result: 2 receptions, 21 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.1 (half-PPR)
Christian has had a disappointing sophomore campaign thus far and unless he can have an explosion similar to the end of last year, he will be a bust for this fantasy season. Jordan Love is not what was promised and it has led to a lot of disappointing Packers pieces for fantasy football. Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs have been cutting into the opportunities available to go around this year, and with Jordan Love not performing at a high level, the opportunities that are available are not as productive. Christian will need to break some big plays over the coming weeks to get the boom weeks that we need.
Underperformer: DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles)
YPRR: 3.54
Result: 6 receptions, 99 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.9 (half-PPR)
As anticipated, DeVonta Smith‘s opportunities immediately increased. He should be setup for a solid end to the season with Dallas Goedert still out at this time. The timing of Goedert returning will be interesting because there is a good chance that it could occur right at the beginning of the fantasy playoffs. That will not affect the choice managers have, you are starting Smith, but it will affect the production you get from him most likely. The Eagles offense has looked rather clunky the last few weeks, but as long as you are getting 5+ targets per game for DeVonta, he can produce at an elite level for your squad.
Applying Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward
If you would like to see how I came up with my PRS calculation or the correlation numbers behind it, take a look at my first article in this series.
Here are the Top 24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 11:
| Player | PRS | Predicted FP/G | Actual FP/G | Over/Under Predicted |
| Tyreek Hill | 114.02 | 22.8 | 21.56 | -1.24 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 85.35 | 16.72 | 14.29 | -2.43 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 80.12 | 15.61 | 16.83 | 1.22 |
| Justin Jefferson | 79.62 | 15.5 | 18.62 | 3.12 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 78.07 | 15.18 | 17.37 | 2.19 |
| A.J. Brown | 77.18 | 14.98 | 17.13 | 2.15 |
| Keenan Allen | 76.21 | 14.78 | 18.46 | 3.68 |
| Puka Nacua | 72.64 | 14.02 | 14.22 | 0.2 |
| Mike Evans | 70.62 | 13.59 | 14.4 | 0.81 |
| Nico Collins | 68.88 | 13.22 | 12.79 | -0.44 |
| Stefon Diggs | 68.27 | 13.1 | 15.45 | 2.36 |
| Noah Brown | 68.19 | 13.08 | 12.08 | -1 |
| Tank Dell | 67.21 | 12.87 | 13.66 | 0.79 |
| Rashee Rice | 64.29 | 12.25 | 8.4 | -3.85 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 63.02 | 11.98 | 11 | -0.98 |
| DJ Moore | 62.95 | 11.97 | 14.06 | 2.1 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 62.55 | 11.88 | 10.86 | -1.03 |
| Davante Adams | 61.49 | 11.66 | 11.83 | 0.17 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 60.75 | 11.5 | 15.48 | 3.98 |
| Cooper Kupp | 57.1 | 10.72 | 9.25 | -1.47 |
| Khalil Shakir | 56.46 | 10.59 | 5.39 | -5.2 |
| D.K. Metcalf | 55.62 | 10.41 | 11.4 | 0.99 |
| >Demario Douglas | 55.31 | 10.35 | 5.68 | -4.67 |
| Deebo Samuel | 55.16 | 10.31 | 7.38 | -2.94 |
I sure wish that Rashee Rice would get more work in this Chiefs offense. It makes little to no sense that he is not receiving more targets with how uninspiring the offense has been, but I am sure Andy Reid is trying. He is a legendary coach so I can’t really question his ways! I just would like to see a player as good as Rice get more action. Let’s hope that the Chiefs offense can find a groove down the stretch and payoff some of the high draft capital that was used on their pieces. But alas, here we are, the Chiefs are still in a spot to get the 1 seed and go on another deep playoff run.
Here’s to hoping that we get a healthy week of football for once and wishing you and yours a Happy Thanksgiving!