Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 12 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to the TPRR report! Trade deadlines have passed in many leagues, but you might still have some deals out there for Week 12. In a season where quarterback play around the league seems at best inconsistent, finding players who make the most of their opportunities might prove to be the key to eking out wins in the final stretch of the fantasy season. This week, I’ve added a few thoughts on players you could target in trades or on waivers.
This weekly series gives actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. We use this statistic to evaluate a player’s efficiency and production related to their opportunities. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.
Week 11 Recap
Here’s a look at Week 11’s top 25 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum 🎉 15 🎉 routes run):
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
- Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Justin Watson (33.3%) was the most involved wide receiver against the Eagles in Week 11. Is Watson the latest in the line of Kansas City receivers who amount to nothing? Probably, and he has had some brutal drops that give me pause. However, Watson’s routes, snaps, and targets present a glimmer of hope. If you’re looking for a cheap dart throw to pick up off waivers, Watson could pay off with Travis Kelce continuing to deal with nagging injuries and Patrick Mahomes in the never-ending search for a decent receiver.
- Is it a coincidence that Trevor Lawrence has his best fantasy performance in a week when he targets Calvin Ridley (30% TPRR) nine times? Zay Jones‘ presence in the lineup also seems to open things up, considering Ridley hasn’t had a top-15 performance with Jones sidelined. Whatever the reason, there’s hope that this becomes a trend in Jacksonville.
- Diontae Johnson (25% TPRR) was a fantasy dud for a second consecutive week, which is unfortunately par for the course when Kenny Pickett is your quarterback. If you’re looking for that silver lining, however, Johnson has a favorable run-in for the remainder of the season. Cincinnati in Weeks 12 and 16 are question marks, but games against the likes of Arizona, New England, and Seattle (in championship week) present some opportunities for Johnson to provide some value. For the right price, he’s a decent trade deadline target.
- Bonus: Samaje Perine tied Jerry Jeudy for the most targets in Denver, catching all seven of his targets on 12 routes run. That’s a 58% TPRR. Perine is still the backup to Javonte Williams, but he’s a pass-protection specialist. The dink-and-dunk approach Sean Payton is adopting for Russell Wilson could give Perine some sneaky value, especially against defenses that can pressure the quarterback. Denver plays Cleveland in Week 12.
- Odell Beckham tops the list this week, but I’m still hesitant. OBJ only ran 17 routes, and Baltimore passes at the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The injury to Mark Andrews should open up more opportunities, so it’s worth seeing what role Beckham, Isaiah Likely, and other Ravens pass catchers can carve out against the Chargers.
Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 11, with the minimum routes run set at 150. The right-hand column (+/-) shows a player’s movement in the rankings from week to week.
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
- Nico Collins (23.36% TPRR) had plenty of opportunity with Noah Brown missing in action, garnering the most targets from likely ROY C.J. Stroud. Tank Dell (24.36% TPRR) likely has a better floor and ceiling, but Collins is a flex-worthy starter as long as Brown is out.
- Mike Evans (24.93% TPRR) has continued to enjoy his best target rate in years, and he’s unquestionably more valuable than Chris Godwin in Tampa Bay.
- A.J. Brown (25.91% TPRR) had his worst game in Week 11, dropping him a few spots in the weekly rankings. Obviously, he’s not coming off anyone’s starting rosters, but opposing defenses have had success in forcing Jalen Hurts away from his top read.
- Gabe Davis (13.7% TPRR) turned in his second goose egg in three weeks and is the WR61 since Week 6. However, he’s still rostered in 83% of Sleeper leagues. The good news is that Buffalo takes on Philadelphia (league-worst against WRs) this week, but he’ll be hard to hold through a Week 13 bye and games against San Francisco and Dallas.
Full TPRR List
This list includes all WRs with at least 150 routes run on the season.
|Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min. 150 Routes)|
|3||Amon-Ra St. Brown||DET||331||94||28.40%||0|
|17||Michael Pittman Jr.||IND||371||92||24.80%||1|
|32||Odell Beckham Jr.||BLT||195||41||21.03%||14|
|70||Calvin Austin III||PIT||174||26||14.94%||-4|
|72||Terrace Marshall Jr.||CAR||198||29||14.65%||1|
|92||Allen Robinson II||PIT||274||32||11.68%||2|
|96||DJ Chark Jr.||CAR||286||31||10.84%||-5|