Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 11 (Fantasy Football)
To all the teams that are 10-0 (slight few) bravo. But to those of you who are 20-0 (added win for median scoring), you are a wizard! Week 10 has come and gone and we saw a record five games being determined by field goals at the buzzer. The witching hour was full of game-altering flags, Jameis doing Jameis things, and amazing heroics. None more deserving of praise than CJ Stroud and Kyler Murray leading their respective teams down the field in the clutch. Although the games were exciting, that is not what we are here for. We are here to determine which receivers ran hot, remained in the flames, and which ones are hitting a cold spell. I want to take a look at some of the advanced statistics from last week to hopefully help us make sound fantasy decisions this week. We will look at aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and an update to my PRS (Predictive Receiver Score).
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Overperformer: Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos)
aDOT: 7 yards
Result: 8 receptions, 58 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 15.8 (half-PPR)
The Bills are in trouble. The Broncos are rising. Those two sentences are not what I thought I would be writing going into week 11, but alas here we are. Russell Wilson has been Dangeruss enough this year to help buoy Courtland to a top-24 fantasy season so far, but the volume has not been profound. Sutton seems to be Wilson’s go-to guy at this point and there is definitely reason for it. Courtland has been making great plays this year and no other play has shined brighter than his touchdown catch in the second quarter of the Monday Night Football game. His ability is apparent but his target depth is concerning for fantasy managers that need a boom type of game from him. Sutton remains a must-start, but the low passing volume from the Broncos and short depth of targets to Sutton make him a floor play most weeks.
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) November 14, 2023
Underperformer: Gabe Davis (Buffalo Bills)
aDOT: 17.4 yards
Result: 2 receptions, 56 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 6.6 (half-PPR)
No, I did not pick these two because they just played on Monday night, it just worked out that way. Of the two QBs in the game, one was throwing deep to Gabe, while the other was working the intermediate and short game. Seems like the short game worked well to secure the only thing that matters to the team, the win. Ken Dorsey (the Bills’ OC) was subsequently let go after this game, and it was not his fault in my opinion. Ken was scapegoated for poor decision-making from his QB and skillet hands Gabe. Gabe the babe has really hit a skid here at the midway point of the season. He is a complete rollercoaster play week-to-week and he has so much potential for spike weeks, but if you do not need a boom play, you would be better off staying away as of now.
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 11.
Overperformer: A.T. Perry (New Orleans Saints)
Result: 2 receptions, 38 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.8 (half-PPR)
It was interesting that the Saints started to have wide receiver production as soon as Carr left the game. But hey, that happens when Jameis Winston is out there throwing the ball from sideline to sideline and choosing to live dangerous play-to-play. The Saints have WRs who can make plays, but Carr does not give them the opportunity to do so very often. Perry was a good illustration of that on Sunday with an awesome TD catch where he wrestled the ball away from the Vikings defender. And although he will most likely go back to a limited role once Michael Thomas is back, he is an interesting flyer for dynasty due to the Saints’ need for a bigger body, go up and get the ball type of receiver.
Underperformer: Zay Flowers (Baltimore Ravens)
Result: 5 receptions, 73 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 9.8 (half-PPR)
Baltimore really dropped the bag this week and allowed the Browns to somehow win that game. Lamar Jackson looked a bit flustered down the stretch, but in his defense that Browns defense is feisty. It was nice to see that he wanted to get Zay involved early and often, but he only ran 26 routes which makes it hard to have a boom type of game. Right now Zay is extremely touchdown-dependent for having a great fantasy day. Zay earns targets when he is running routes, but this week they only ran 50 plays. That is always going to lead to a blah day without a touchdown, but there should be good things ahead for Zay due to his ability to separate and garner attention from his QB.
Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
Overperformer: Quentin Johnston (Los Angeles Chargers)
Result: 4 receptions, 34 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 11.4 (half-PPR)
QUGE! Okay, okay, I will calm down, but it was nice to see Quentin Johnston get into the end zone and have a tiny, mini-breakthrough game. Although he finally had a decent fantasy game, it could’ve been so much bigger. QJ dropped a slant pass across the middle that easily could’ve gone for a 40+ yard touchdown. Johnston has started to at least get a few looks from Justin Herbert as of late, but that is mostly due to the fact that the Chargers hardly have anyone left to throw to. Johnston ran 35 routes in this game so his YPRR number is outrageously low for a player that scored over 10 fantasy points. QJ can be added as a stash on the waiver wire right now, but he is not a player you should be looking to start. Maybe by the time we get to the fantasy playoffs, he will have a real breakthrough, but for now, we wait and hope.
Underperformer: Michael Pittman Jr. (Indianapolis Colts)
Result: 8 receptions, 84 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.4 (half-PPR)
Michael Pittman is so good at football. Pittman is an excellent possession receiver for Gardner Minshew and he looks his way an absolute ton. This game was the conclusion of the international series for the 2023 season and man…what a dud. The Colts edged out the Patriots and moved to 5-5 but it was not pretty. Michael Pittman helped the Colts move the chains numerous times in the game, but with Josh Downs playing through an injury, he was one of the only reliable options that Gardner had available. Michael Pittman has had a good resurgence this year with new head coach Shane Steichen and he remains a safe play for fantasy managers.
Applying Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward
If you would like to see how I came up with my PRS calculation or the correlation numbers behind it, take a look at my first article in this series.
Top 24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 10
|Player||PRS||Predicted FP/G||Actual FP/G||Over/Under Predicted|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||77.95||15.15||17.33||2.18|
CeeDee Lamb continues his epic run and vaults up into the third spot in my PRS calculation for the year, Keenan Allen is inevitable, and Noah Brown pays off his waiver wire add from last week for all of the managers who were brave (or desperate) enough to start him. This table really illustrates to me how amazing this year has been for CJ Stroud considering he has three of his WRs in this top-24 list. He most likely has Rookie Offensive Player of the Year wrapped up, but there is so much more on the line for this team all of a sudden. As we start the backend of the season, we have so many more fantasy points, bad beats, and “almost upsets of the week” to go. Let’s all have a great Week 11 and best of luck to everyone (except my opponents)!