Analyzing Wide Receiver Performances for Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens continue to roll, CJ Stroud had a full-on breakout party, and the Bengals continue to own the Bills. Week 9 was full of fun storylines (Joshua Dobbs is a legend) but the fantasy production was not on full display on Sunday that is certain. If you did not have a Texans wide receiver or CeeDee Lamb it felt like you were fighting a bit of an uphill battle, but it sure was a fun weekend. There are some interesting games this week to look forward to and the NFL is never short on storylines, but we are going to be looking at how to navigate the wide receiver landscape. The advanced wide receiver statistics in question that we will cover are aDOT, TPRR, and YPRR, and an updated to my PRS (Predictive Receiver Score). Time to dive in and see where we can gain an edge in the coming weeks!
Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
Overperformer: Darnell Mooney (Chicago Bears)
aDOT: 4.5 yards
Result: 5 receptions, 82 receiving yards, 0 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 10.7 (half-PPR)
Tyson Bagent and the Bears actually gave the Saints a decent game for a few hours, but the turnover bug bit Tyson later in the game and the Saints were able to hold on for the win. During this game, Darnell Mooney started to get some action early and looked decent when he did. Most of his work was done on short routes bringing his aDOT down, but he was effective in that role. I will be interested to see if Justin Fields comes back this week and if Darnell will continue to see a decent target share. He produced a decent amount of yardage after the catch, so that is not something I want to bank on reoccurring, but I do think he is someone you should keep an eye on this week and if he has another decent game he could be in flex-worthy range.
Underperformer: Jaylen Waddle (Miami Dolphins)
aDOT: 15.8 yards
Result: 3 receptions, 42 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.7 (half-PPR)
Germany thought they were going to get a real barn burner of a game, but instead, they saw a pretty boring game overall. The Kansas City Chiefs scored 14 offensive points, as did the Miami Dolphins, and Jaylen Waddle continues his disappointing fantasy season. It is unfortunate because he is getting the targets and his advanced statistics show a receiver that should be producing at a higher level, but for one reason or another, it has not worked out for him this year. I still believe that he is a buy-low target for the rest of the year, but if the Dolphins continue to disappoint against good teams then managers may be in for a dud of a season overall.
Targets per Route Run (TPRR)
For a deeper dive into TPRR, check out AJ Passman’s Targets Per Route Run Report for Week 10.
Overperformer: DeVonta Smith (Philadelphia Eagles)
Result: 3 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 12.6 (half-PPR)
One of the best games of the week was when the Cowboys took the Eagles to the wire Sunday afternoon. The Eagles saw an unfortunate injury to their tight end Dallas Goedert that reportedly will keep him out for at least four weeks. This is bad news for the Eagles and an injured Jalen Hurts, but this could be really good news for DeVonta Smith. Last year when he was playing without Goedert, his performances started to skyrocket. He overperformed a bit last week on a 9.4% TPRR, but this number should rise quickly in the games he plays without Goedert. If he starts to see anywhere close to 50% of the targets that were going to Dallas, then he could be a player who helps a fantasy manager make a late run to the playoffs. Go grab DeVonta Smith if you can!
Underperformer: Davante Adams (Las Vegas Raiders)
Result: 4 receptions, 34 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 5.4 (half-PPR)
The new coach bump was in full effect on Sunday as Antonio Pierce and the Raiders walloped the Giants 30-6. Alex O’Connell was not targeting Davante Adams early, but in the second half, he started to look his way quite often. Just from the eye test, it does seem that AOC has been doing a good job of placing the ball into areas where his pass catchers have a chance to make plays, unlike when the offense was being run by an injured Jimmy Garoppolo or Brian Hoyer. If AOC is going to get Davante this type of TPRR production then Adams should be in for a good stretch run of the season. The Raiders seem rejuvenated and this could spell good times for Adams managers coming soon.
Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
Overperformer: Brandon Powell (Minnesota Vikings)
Result: 2 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 1 TD
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.5 (half-PPR)
Joshua Dobbs is a legend! I never thought that this game would make my main screen on Sunday, but there I was glued to the screen watching Joshua Dobbs bring the Vikings from behind when he had only gotten to Minnesota days earlier. Dobbs may be the savior that the Vikings pass catchers needed, and in all sincerity, I only added Powell so that I could write something about Dobbs. Powell has been a very serviceable wide receiver in the absence of Justin Jefferson, but his time to garner targets should be coming to an add here shortly. KJ Osborn went down with a concussion and JJ is not expected to play this week so Brandon Powell should get more run this week, but I expect him to go back to mostly irrelevant once the Vikings have their three main wide receivers back on the field together.
Underperformer: Kyle Philips (Tennessee Titans)
Result: 4 receptions, 68 receiving yards, 0 TDs
Receiving Fantasy Points: 8.8 (half-PPR)
Will Levis and the Titans put up a solid fight against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football, but they came up just short at the end of the game. Will Levis has played well enough though to be named the starter for the remainder of the season and he seems to like targeting Kyle Philips. If this continues then there is a chance that Philips could start to garner enough attention to warrant him being in flex consideration over the next few weeks. Treylon Burks will not play this week after he took a nasty fall, so Kyle Philips should be on the field a lot this week against a Buccaneers defense that CJ Stroud just sliced and diced. I wouldn’t rush to get KP on my team, but I am interested in stashing him in a deeper league as a desperation play if he shows well again this week.
Applying Predictive Receiver Score (PRS) to Predict Fantasy Points Moving Forward
If you would like to see how I came up with my PRS calculation or the correlation numbers behind it, take a look at my first article in this series.
Top 24 Wide Receivers in PRS Through Week 9
|Player||PRS||Predicted FP/G||Actual FP/G||Over/Under Predicted|
|Amon-Ra St. Brown||71.9||13.87||16.14||2.28|
Noah Brown has only played four games so that one blow-up game last week really vaulted him up the PRS ranks! Brandon Aiyuk continues to be the biggest underperformer in terms of predicted fantasy points per game to actual points, and that makes me quite interested in trying to acquire him if I can. CeeDee is starting to ascend and really bolster any fantasy lineup he is in. The storylines in the NFL never stop and it is one of the reasons it is such an interesting and fun sport to follow. We get the downfall of the villain that is Arthur Smith and the glory of Joshua Dobbs all in the same game. Glorious! I for one cannot wait to see what Week 10 has in store for us. Thanks for reading and best of luck in your fantasy endeavors for Week 10!