Targets Per Route Run Report: Week 10 (Fantasy Football)
Welcome back to the TPRR report. Fantasy managers had to do without the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Travis Ettiene last week, and Week 10 is another roundhouse kick to fantasy rosters. The Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams are on bye, leaving a lot of league leaders with major holes in their starting lineups.
This weekly series gives actionable insights for the week ahead based on Targets Per Route Run (TPRR). TPRR is calculated by dividing a player’s targets by their routes run and expressing it as a percentage. We use this statistic to evaluate a player’s efficiency and production related to their opportunities. To learn more about TPRR and why it’s a useful tool, check out the 2023 season preview.
Week 9 Recap
Here’s a look at Week 9’s top 15 in Targets Per Route Run (minimum 🎉 15 🎉 routes run):
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
Takeaways
- Chances are, whoever has A.J. Brown (29.0%) on their roster probably isn’t sweating their bye week. If he’s available for a desperate manager, however, I’d move heaven and earth to acquire him. Despite Tyreek Hill‘s historic dominance, Brown has been the overall WR1 since Week 3, and he’s only finished outside the top 12 three times this season.
- On the other side of the field in Week 9, CeeDee Lamb (31.4%) tops the relevant (sorry, JuJu) players on the list this week. Lamb finished as the WR3 last week despite not scoring a touchdown. That’s Julio Jones-level performance.
- If you were expecting DeAndre Hopkins (29.7% TPRR) to score three “tuddies” again, I don’t know what to tell you. Hopkins is best viewed as a WR3 with Will Levis under center in Tennessee, but his usage is encouraging. Levis attempted 10 more passes in Week 9, and Hopkins saw five more targets than he did in last week’s explosion.
- Tank Dell (28.2% TPRR) and Noah Brown (18.2% TPRR) finished as the top two receivers this week on the back of CJ Stroud‘s fantasy masterpiece. There are fantasy points to be had in this fun, exciting offense. Brown continues to benefit from Robert Woods‘ absence, and Tank Dell seems like the surer bet moving forward.
Season Leaders
Here are the season leaders in TPRR among qualified receivers through Week 9, with the minimum routes run set at 120. The right-hand column (+/-) shows a player’s movement in the rankings from week to week.
*Route and Target Data via PFF.com
Biggest Risers
- Michael Pittman (23.48% TPRR) went eight for eight in targets and receptions in Week 9, and he likely would have had a bigger fantasy day had the Colts’ defense not scored twice. With Josh Downs going down with a knee injury, Pitty City’s opportunities should only go up for a Week 10 matchup with New England.
- After a dismal start to the season, Jahan Dotson (14.76% TPRR) is slowly climbing the ranks and has seen eight or more targets in three straight weeks. The Commanders rank third in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), so the opportunities for Dotson should hold moving forward.
Biggest Fallers
- Cooper Kupp is still drawing targets on 20% of his routes but is not proving impervious to the Rams’ offensive woes. Kupp goes into the bye week on a third consecutive finish outside the top 36, perhaps giving managers a welcome break from deciding whether or not to start him. If Matthew Stafford returns in Week 11, Kupp should bounce back, but this season is looking like one to forget.
- That’s the Gabe Davis we know and love. After a surprising 12-target performance in Week 8, Davis saw only two targets last week and has now tumbled down below a 15% TPRR for the season.
- Adam Thielen (22.89% TPRR) falls eight spots this week, but I’m not concerned about his status moving forward. Bryce Young threw three interceptions (two pick-sixes) and struggled in Week 9. Thielen still led all Carolina receivers with six targets. With a plus matchup against Chicago in Week 10, I’m trying to add Thielen as my WR3 with managers who are afraid the other shoe is about to drop.
Full TPRR List
This list includes all WRs with at least 120 routes run on the season.
| Targets Per Route Run – Season Leaders (Min. 105 Routes) | ||||||
| Rk | Player | Team | Routes | Targets | TPRR | + /- |
| 1 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | 272 | 94 | 34.56% | 0 |
| 2 | Davante Adams | LV | 293 | 84 | 28.67% | 2 |
| 3 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | 263 | 74 | 28.14% | 2 |
| 4 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | 125 | 35 | 28.00% | #N/A |
| 5 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | 340 | 95 | 27.94% | -3 |
| 6 | Puka Nacua | LA | 328 | 91 | 27.74% | 0 |
| 7 | Ja’Marr Chase | CIN | 330 | 90 | 27.27% | -4 |
| 8 | A.J. Brown | PHI | 331 | 89 | 26.89% | 0 |
| 9 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | 191 | 51 | 26.70% | 0 |
| 10 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | 224 | 59 | 26.34% | 1 |
| 11 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | 199 | 52 | 26.13% | -1 |
| 12 | Cooper Kupp | LA | 165 | 43 | 26.06% | -5 |
| 13 | DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | 231 | 60 | 25.97% | 2 |
| 14 | Keenan Allen | LAC | 313 | 80 | 25.56% | 0 |
| 15 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | 284 | 72 | 25.35% | 5 |
| 16 | Chris Olave | NO | 333 | 84 | 25.23% | 0 |
| 17 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | NE | 127 | 32 | 25.20% | 10 |
| 18 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | 308 | 77 | 25.00% | -5 |
| 19 | Rashee Rice | KC | 166 | 40 | 24.10% | -7 |
| 20 | Marquise Brown | ARZ | 310 | 74 | 23.87% | 1 |
| 21 | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | 345 | 81 | 23.48% | 7 |
| 22 | Kendrick Bourne | NE | 235 | 55 | 23.40% | 1 |
| 23 | Mike Evans | TB | 244 | 57 | 23.36% | -5 |
| 24 | Jakobi Meyers | LV | 266 | 62 | 23.31% | 1 |
| 25 | Adam Thielen | CAR | 332 | 76 | 22.89% | -8 |
| 26 | Demario Douglas | NE | 153 | 35 | 22.88% | -7 |
| 27 | Chris Godwin | TB | 268 | 60 | 22.39% | -1 |
| 28 | Nico Collins | HST | 240 | 53 | 22.08% | -6 |
| 29 | Drake London | ATL | 258 | 56 | 21.71% | 4 |
| 30 | Amari Cooper | CLV | 273 | 59 | 21.61% | 1 |
| 31 | Deebo Samuel | SF | 139 | 30 | 21.58% | 4 |
| 32 | Robert Woods | HST | 186 | 40 | 21.51% | 2 |
| 33 | Tank Dell | HST | 201 | 43 | 21.39% | 15 |
| 34 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | 256 | 54 | 21.09% | 1 |
| 35 | Tee Higgins | CIN | 233 | 49 | 21.03% | 2 |
| 36 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | 224 | 47 | 20.98% | -7 |
| 37 | Romeo Doubs | GB | 245 | 51 | 20.82% | -5 |
| 38 | Christian Kirk | JAX | 277 | 57 | 20.58% | 2 |
| 39 | Zay Flowers | BLT | 293 | 60 | 20.48% | -9 |
| 40 | George Pickens | PIT | 279 | 57 | 20.43% | -1 |
| 41 | Wan’Dale Robinson | NYG | 162 | 33 | 20.37% | 3 |
| 42 | Parris Campbell | NYG | 123 | 25 | 20.33% | -4 |
| 43 | Josh Downs | IND | 269 | 54 | 20.07% | 0 |
| 44 | Calvin Ridley | JAX | 285 | 57 | 20.00% | 0 |
| 45 | Odell Beckham Jr. | BLT | 166 | 33 | 19.88% | 11 |
| 46 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA | 209 | 41 | 19.62% | 5 |
| 47 | DJ Moore | CHI | 315 | 61 | 19.37% | -3 |
| 48 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | 359 | 69 | 19.22% | -4 |
| 49 | Curtis Samuel | WAS | 224 | 43 | 19.20% | 0 |
| 50 | Jayden Reed | GB | 198 | 38 | 19.19% | 0 |
| 51 | Michael Thomas | NO | 322 | 61 | 18.94% | -9 |
| 52 | Jerry Jeudy | DEN | 206 | 39 | 18.93% | 0 |
| 53 | Mack Hollins | ATL | 145 | 27 | 18.62% | 7 |
| 54 | Christian Watson | GB | 143 | 26 | 18.18% | -13 |
| 55 | Jordan Addison | MIN | 316 | 57 | 18.04% | 0 |
| 56 | Kalif Raymond | DET | 122 | 22 | 18.03% | 2 |
| 57 | Elijah Moore | CLV | 268 | 47 | 17.54% | -4 |
| 58 | Michael Gallup | DAL | 220 | 38 | 17.27% | -1 |
| 59 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | 259 | 44 | 16.99% | 2 |
| 60 | Tutu Atwell | LA | 314 | 53 | 16.88% | 3 |
| 61 | Dontayvion Wicks | GB | 137 | 23 | 16.79% | 8 |
| 62 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | 352 | 59 | 16.76% | -3 |
| 63 | Terrace Marshall Jr. | CAR | 162 | 26 | 16.05% | -9 |
| 64 | Joshua Palmer | LAC | 237 | 38 | 16.03% | -2 |
| 65 | Noah Brown | HST | 120 | 19 | 15.83% | #N/A |
| 66 | Rashod Bateman | BLT | 158 | 25 | 15.82% | 6 |
| 67 | Brandon Powell | MIN | 136 | 21 | 15.44% | #N/A |
| 68 | Calvin Austin III | PIT | 162 | 25 | 15.43% | 2 |
| 69 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | 308 | 47 | 15.26% | -3 |
| 70 | K.J. Osborn | MIN | 325 | 48 | 14.77% | 3 |
| 71 | Jahan Dotson | WAS | 359 | 53 | 14.76% | 7 |
| 72 | Gabe Davis | BUF | 326 | 48 | 14.72% | -7 |
| 73 | Braxton Berrios | MIA | 177 | 26 | 14.69% | -9 |
| 74 | Justin Watson | KC | 172 | 25 | 14.53% | 7 |
| 75 | Michael Wilson | ARZ | 243 | 35 | 14.40% | 1 |
| 76 | Jonathan Mingo | CAR | 257 | 37 | 14.40% | -9 |
| 77 | Rashid Shaheed | NO | 269 | 38 | 14.13% | 0 |
| 78 | Jauan Jennings | SF | 138 | 19 | 13.77% | 2 |
| 79 | Nelson Agholor | BLT | 168 | 23 | 13.69% | -4 |
| 79 | Quentin Johnston | LAC | 168 | 23 | 13.69% | -8 |
| 81 | Skyy Moore | KC | 212 | 29 | 13.68% | 2 |
| 82 | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | TEN | 185 | 25 | 13.51% | -8 |
| 83 | Brandin Cooks | DAL | 219 | 29 | 13.24% | -15 |
| 84 | Hunter Renfrow | LV | 150 | 19 | 12.67% | 9 |
| 85 | Josh Reynolds | DET | 237 | 30 | 12.66% | 1 |
| 86 | DeVante Parker | NE | 199 | 25 | 12.56% | 1 |
| 87 | Allen Lazard | NYJ | 280 | 35 | 12.50% | -2 |
| 88 | Allen Robinson II | PIT | 233 | 29 | 12.45% | -4 |
| 89 | Tyler Scott | CHI | 129 | 16 | 12.40% | -10 |
| 90 | Darius Slayton | NYG | 308 | 38 | 12.34% | 1 |
| 91 | Trey Palmer | TB | 215 | 26 | 12.09% | -1 |
| 92 | DJ Chark Jr. | CAR | 257 | 31 | 12.06% | -4 |
| 93 | Rondale Moore | ARZ | 250 | 30 | 12.00% | -11 |
| 94 | Isaiah Hodgins | NYG | 165 | 19 | 11.52% | -5 |
| 95 | Darnell Mooney | CHI | 267 | 30 | 11.24% | 0 |
| 96 | Van Jefferson | ATL | 256 | 28 | 10.94% | 0 |
| 97 | Alec Pierce | IND | 318 | 32 | 10.06% | -3 |
| 98 | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | 197 | 19 | 9.64% | 2 |
| 99 | Brandon Johnson | DEN | 126 | 12 | 9.52% | -2 |
| 100 | Randall Cobb | NYJ | 129 | 12 | 9.30% | -2 |
| 101 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | 267 | 24 | 8.99% | -2 |
| 102 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLV | 218 | 17 | 7.80% | -1 |
| 103 | Olamide Zaccheaus | PHI | 197 | 12 | 6.09% | -1 |