AFC South Divisional Podcast Recap for 2023 (Fantasy Football)
The Ballers are moving south in their divisional breakdown series with the AFC South. As a reminder, this is a general overview of the teams in each division and what offseason changes (coaches, free agents, and rookies) fantasy managers can expect to impact players for the upcoming season. Of course, Andy, Mike, and Jason will get into who’s going to win each division and how they expect each team to finish.
A reminder that we are up to three shows a week now – tune into The Fantasy Footballers Podcast on any and all of your devices!
To take an even deeper dive into fantasy players in the AFC South, make sure to check out the full array of the UDK’s tools available to make your fantasy team a champion!
Let’s Get Divisional – AFC South
Before we jump into each individual team, let’s remember how awful this division was in 2022. With only one team posting a winning record on the year, it shouldn’t be surprising to anyone that the AFC South didn’t fare well outside of the division. Against teams that made the playoffs last season, the AFC South was just 4-21 (the Colts beat Kansas City in Week 3 and Jacksonville beat the LA Chargers, Baltimore, and Dallas).
The AFC South also wasn’t the place to look for big WR performances in 2022. Jacksonville scored the 8th most WR fantasy points in the league, but Indianapolis, Houston, and Tennessee all ranked 20th or worse. In fact, Christian Kirk had as many top-24 WR finishes as Titans and Texans receivers combined.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
Player Additions: RB D’Ernest Johnson; WR Calvin Ridley
Player Subtractions: RB James Robinson; WR Marvin Jones
Rookies: Round 2 (No. 61): TE Brenton Strange; Round 3 (No. 88): RB Tank Bigsby
Round 6 (No. 185): WR Parker Washington
2022 Offensive Ranks:
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 11 |
After an incredibly slow start to the year, Jacksonville was one of the surprise teams in the league going 8-3 in their last 11 games including a five-game winning streak to close out the regular season. Head coach Doug Pederson seemed to have the Jags’ offense moving in the right direction, mainly thanks to improved play from QB Trevor Lawrence and a big first year on the field from RB Travis Etienne.
While Etienne was a bright spot for fantasy managers last season, Andy argues there’s room for more volume to come his way in the passing game since only 14% of Trevor Lawrence’s targets went to the RB. Etienne was only targeted on 12.7% of his routes, which ranked 2nd worst in the league among RBs. Mike sees Etienne’s current ADP of 3.08 as a big risk for fantasy managers to take based on the addition of Tank Bigsby in the draft and Pederson’s history with more of a committee approach.
The wildcard for Jacksonville will be in the passing game with Calvin Ridley. Ridley hasn’t played since Week 8 of the 2021 season so fantasy managers adding him at his current value of WR19 could be a little steep, but might add another explosive element to Jacksonville’s offense if he’s the guy we all remember. Jason has concerns about taking a bet on Ridley since fantasy managers haven’t seen him on the field in so long. Ridley, Christian Kirk (2022’s WR11), and the spot start Zay Jones combine for what was a top-10 passing attack from 2022.
Altogether, Jacksonville is probably one of the safest bets as a division winner and has a chance to jump out early and impress when they host Kansas City in Week 2.
2023 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5 (bet down from 10.5)
Tennessee Titans (7-10)
Player Additions: None
Player Subtractions: RB Dontrell Hilliard; WR Robert Woods
Rookies: Round 2 (No. 33): QB Will Levis; Round 3 (No. 81): RB Tyjae Spears; Round 7 (No. 228): WR Colton Dowell
2022 Offensive Ranks:
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 24 | 28 | 30 | 30 | 30 | 28 | 11 | 13 | 11 |
Tennessee dealt with injuries aplenty in 2022, which explains their seven-game losing streak to end the season and miss the playoffs for the first time in four years.
The offensive output in Tennessee has started and ended with Derrick Henry in the last handful of seasons, and that shouldn’t change heading into 2023. The Fantasy Hitman has The Yeti as his RB2 overall after shouldering 39.6% of the Titans’ yards and TDs last season. What fantasy managers are afraid of is the inevitable cliff that RBs seem to fall off of after a certain point. While Henry has been an outlier to most RB statistics in general, it’s worth noting he’s approaching 2,000 career carries, while historically we see a dip in production after about 1,800.
Tennessee’s passing game was one of the worst in the league last season, but 46% of the Titans’ red zone targets from 2022 are gone with the departure of Austin Hooper and Robert Woods. That opens the door for two Titans to consider as bright spots when looking for breakout candidates this season: Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo.
Burks’ rookie season didn’t have the flair that many fantasy managers would have hoped for, but he did see a target on 21% of his routes run and produced 1.75 yards per route run. When you consider that Tennessee hasn’t added a significant additional receiving option in free agency or the draft this summer, Burks seems penciled in as the WR1 for this offense and at a tasty draft price of 7.07.
Okonkwo has been a popular name throughout the offseason after leading all TEs in yards per route run as a rookie with 2.61 and seeing a target on 26.9% of his routes in 2022. The lack of established receiving options could allow Chig to be a late-round steal for fantasy managers.
Overall, Tennessee may be the only real option to compete with Jacksonville for this division, and that mainly hinges on the opinion that Mike Vrabel is just a dang good coach. If Ryan Tannehill can find his groove again with new Offensive Coordinator Tim Kelly, the Titans could still have the firepower to make a run at the AFC South.
2023 Vegas Projected Win Total: 7.5
Indianapolis Colts (4-12-1)
Player Additions: QB Gardner Minshew; WR Isaiah McKenzie; TE Pharaoh Brown
Player Subtractions: QB Matt Ryan; WR Parris Campbell
Rookies: Round 1 (No. 4): QB Anthony Richardson; Round 3 (No. 79): WR Josh Downs; Round 5 (No. 162): TE Will Mallory; Round 5 (No. 176): RB Evan Hull
2022 Offensive Ranks:
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 4 | 30 | 27 | 9 | 23 | 24 | 19 | 23 | 30 |
Indianapolis finally fully hit the reset button in 2022 making an entire regime change in the coaching office. Shane Steichen comes to the Colts after leading one of the most fun offenses to watch in the NFL with the Philadelphia Eagles for the last two seasons.
The Colts dove head first into their rebuild taking one of the most interesting prospects in the NFL draft with QB Anthony Richardson. While it’s unclear if Richardson will be the starter in Week 1, if the Colts give him the reins early there is potential for fantasy gold to be struck. Over the last 20 years, every rookie with 80 or more rushing attempts has finished top-10 in fantasy points per game. That’s just 4.7 carries per game. It’s still to be seen how much growth in the passing game Richardson needs, but for fantasy, his rushing ability will provide a healthy floor.
It seems odd to not mention the consensus RB1 from years past first when talking about the Colts, but Jonathan Taylor could still present an elite ceiling for fantasy managers. The Ballers are in agreement that Taylor’s lackluster 2022 should give fantasy managers pause before auto-drafting the Colts’ bell cow. In 2022, 19% of Taylor’s carries went for zero or negative yards. Taylor is heading into a contract season, and with a running QB in Richardson likely taking most of the snaps on the year, it could limit Taylor’s overall output.
It won’t just be Taylor who could feel the effect Richardson has on the offense for fantasy purposes, but the passing game as well. Michael Pittman has seen at least 125 targets over the last two seasons and finished as a top-24 WR in both years. Pittman may still be the leader in the WR room for targets, but rookie QBs sustaining a top-24 WR may not be a bet fantasy managers need to make.
Overall, the Colts will be a team that could be interesting to watch in 2023. With the third-easiest schedule in the league, Indianapolis may get an easier chance to grow into its new look.
2023 Vegas Projected Win Total: 6.5
Houston Texans (3-13-1)
Player Additions: RB Devin Singletary; RB Mike Boone; TE Dalton Schultz; WR Robert Woods; WR Noah Brown; QB Case Keenum
Player Subtractions: WR Brandin Cooks; RB Royce Freeman; RB Rex Burkhead; RB Eno Benjamin
Rookies: Round 1 (No. 2): QB C.J. Stroud; Round 3 (No. 69): WR Nathaniel Dell; Round 6 (No. 205): WR Xavier Hutchinson
2022 Offensive Ranks:
| Pace of Play | PPG | Total Yards | Pass Att. | Pass Yards | Pass TDs | Rush Att. | Rush Yards | Rush TD | |
| 21 | 30 | 31 | 14 | 25 | 18 | 30 | 31 | 31 |
It finally feels like time for the Texans to fully move on from the Deshaun Watson era. New head coach DeMeco Ryans doesn’t have much to live up to when you consider his last three predecessors never won more than four games in a season. Houston was last in the league in expected points per rush and posted the lowest average depth of target while running three-WR sets on just 52% of their plays last year.
Number 2-overall pick, C.J. Stroud, embodies the new future for the Texans. Stroud had great collegiate passing numbers and if there are any doubts about his ability to play against high-level defense, just go watch the Peach Bowl against Georgia in the College Football Playoffs. There will surely be some rookie bumps, but Stroud should provide stability for the Texans’ offense going forward.
Offensively, Houston doesn’t offer Stroud much to work with outside of Dameon Pierce. Pierce was the rookie RB hotness of last summer and rightfully so after tearing it up on the field from Weeks 3-13 when he averaged 12.6 fantasy points per game. While Houston didn’t add any competition in the draft, Devin Singletary should present some concern for fantasy managers regarding Pierce’s stranglehold on the running work. It’s unlikely the Texans will be as run-heavy in 2023 as they were last season, so any touches given to Singletary could be that much more detrimental to Pierce’s fantasy value.
The receiving options in Houston don’t offer much certainty but each could be worth a flier at their current ADP. Robert Woods and Nico Collins could prove to be Stroud’s veteran options on the outside. Personally, Nathaniel Dell is an interesting player to keep an eye on in this receiving group just based on the draft capital and collegiate production he offers.
2023 Vegas Projected Win Total: 6.5
Ballers AFC South Predictions
| Andy | Jason | Mike |
| Tennessee | Jacksonville | Tennessee |
| Jacksonville | Tennessee | Jacksonville |
| Houston | Indianapolis | Houston |
| Indianapolis | Houston | Indianapolis |