AFC East Divisional Podcast Recap For 2026 (Fantasy Football)
In the AFC East breakdown, you will find two great teams and two teams with great players, but just can’t seem to get it together. The Ballers dive straight into all the off-season changes, from free agent signings to rookie additions to coaching changes. Andy, Mike, and Jason take a look at last year’s production, forecast how they think each team will pan out, and share who they think will win the division in 2026.
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Let’s Get Divisional – AFC East
New England Patriots (14-3)
- Player Additions: WR AJ Brown, WR Romeo Doubs
- Player Subtractions: WR Stefon Diggs, RB Antonio Gibson, TE Austin Hooper
- Rookies: TE Eli Raridon (Round 3), RB Jam Miller (Round 7)
2025 Offensive Ranks
| PPG | YPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
| 2 | 8 | 23 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
Walking into 2025, the New England Patriots had the second-easiest strength of schedule. Naturally, with an easier schedule, you are going to rack up some wins, 14 to be exact. Unlike a boxer picking their opponents, trying to rack up some easy wins, they played who they were assigned to play. Some of the opponents they beat in the regular season just so happen to be (don’t puke): Spencer Rattler, Cam Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley, Brady Cook, and Quinn Ewers. That is the beauty of having a fourth-place schedule.
There do not seem to be many questions about Drake Maye, with him flying off the board as the consensus QB3, exactly where he finished in 2025. I suppose that is the right way to look at it when you finish first in Completion Percentage (72%), Yards per Attempt, and Passer Rating. When you find yourself with the fourth-highest pass success rate of any QB through their first two years in the NFL, just behind Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy (I’m as shocked as you), and Dan Marino, you are doing something right.
Here is what the Ballers had to say about Drake Maye:
Andy: “I’ve pretty much played it like Drake Maye is going to run it back with a very similar output from a fantasy perspective.”
Mike: “I still have him being a very solid fantasy player, but we know historically that he had a 6.3 TD percentage. When you’re up that high, it generally comes down.”
Jason: “I think more of the same for Drake Maye, but it won’t feel as good this year as it did last year because other [QBs] won’t be injured.”
Getting AJ Brown, who was the WR5 over the final seven games of 2025, cannot hurt Maye… can it? We have an awesome article series titled “The Path to a WR1 Fantasy Season,” and while the criteria will not be met to include AJ Brown, all three Ballers think he is a receiver who could truly finish as the WR1 overall (I am right there with them). Now, to address the elephant in the room, who is the second pass catcher for the team? For Mike, it is Romeo Doubs. If we look back to 2025, Hunter Henry had a career year in receiving yards with 768, and when they got to the red zone, it was Henry time. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Brock Bowers, and Trey McBride had a higher first-read target share inside the red zone. You are probably not drafting him, but in the right matchups, he is a name to remember as the season goes on.
What are we expecting from A.J. Brown now that he's on the Patriots? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/Yn3UIntsLN
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) June 2, 2026
If you had any part of the Patriots backfield last season (or over the past decade, really), you have lived to tell the tale. It has been a frustrating backfield for quite a while, and going into 2026, it does not seem any clearer. TreVeyon Henderson is going off the board three rounds earlier than his running mate, Rhamondre Stevenson. It makes sense, too. We saw a Henderson breakout from Weeks 9 to 12 while Stevenson was hurt. However, that fourth-round price tag in fantasy drafts is expensive, even for the biggest Henderson fan, Michael Wright. His biggest concern is that after Henderson’s breakout, they went right back to Stevenson once he was healthy. While I am no beat reporter, I do keep an ear to the ground on all things coming out of Foxborough, and it would not surprise me (or the Ballers) if Stevenson is the starter through the first quarter of the season, at least. The old dilemma of tremendous upside vs what is most likely to actually happen. Jason laid it out perfectly: Henderson started so slow, but from Week 13 on, Henderson had 14 opportunities per game to Stevenson’s 11. The playoffs were all Stevenson, but the Ballers make the argument that Mike Vrabel didn’t want a rookie out there versus unbelievable defenses, and would rather a controlled, game-managed type of game. They reached the Super Bowl, so I would say it worked. FWIW: Jason thinks Henderson will have the majority of the touches (60/40), while Andy doesn’t think so at all.
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Buffalo Bills (12-5)
- Player Additions: WR DJ Moore
- Player Subtractions: WR Brandin Cooks, WR Gabe Davis, WR Curtis Samuel, FB Reggie Gilliam
- Rookies: WR Skyler Bell (Round 4)
2025 Offensive Ranks
| PPG | YPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
| 3 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 1 | 1 |
We have a head-coaching change from Sean McDermott to Joe Brady (who has been promoted from OC in Buffalo). With that in mind, we should not see too much change, especially given that what they have been doing has worked over the past few seasons, with the team’s identity coming from Josh Allen and James Cook. The only question you may have about those two players is their draft cost. Allen is going at the end of the second round, and James Cook is going in the first round. There is no question for me if Allen is worth the cost, as he absolutely is. And that is coming from someone who likes to scour the waiver wire and play the matchups at the QB position. The Bills put their money where their mouth is by giving James Cook a ton of money, then followed that up with a bunch of touches (349, to be exact), and brought the rushing title back to Buffalo. I side with Mike in that he is an “easy, safe, high upside, high floor pick”.
James Cook led the NFL in 2025 with 11 games of 80+ rushing yards 💯 👀 pic.twitter.com/xa1aiv8ZDv
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) April 15, 2026
With the two studs on Buffalo out of the question, we can turn our focus on their new WR, DJ Moore. Here are the positives: Moore is back with Joe Brady, with whom he had 1,100+ yards and four TDs in each 2020 and 2021. Joe Brady had this to say about DJ Moore in March of 2026: “Five years is a long time. But, the player that I saw on 2025 tape wasn’t any different… [I did not see] any drop-off.” (I think Brady might have been looking at his Chicago tape from 2023, when Moore had a career season). The negatives? There are a lot. He is 29 years old and is changing teams as he enters his eighth year in the NFL. Moore was bad in 2025. Jason shared the most bullish opinion on DJ Moore: “The best-case scenario is that he is their alpha target, he has 150 targets, and he’s a WR1.” Shortly after, Jason said he would not be betting on that happening. The guys didn’t mention Khalil Shakir, and probably for good reason. He has been a solid NFL WR, but for fantasy, he is a JAG (Just A Guy).
It wouldn’t be fair to close out the Bills review without talking about their 2023 first-round pick, Dalton Kincaid. Last year, Kincaid was hyper-efficient, leading all TEs in YPRR at 2.73. Small sample size, but that is elite. Kincaid was dealing with a knee issue throughout 2025, but he says it is not an issue for him right now.
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 10.5
Miami Dolphins (7-10)
- Player Additions: QB Malik Willis, WR Jalen Tolbert, WR Tutu Atwell, WR Terrace Marshall Jr. (Lockjaw)
- Player Subtractions: QB Tua Tagovailoa, WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (I genuinely didn’t even know he was on the team in 2025), TE Darren Waller
- Rookies: WR Caleb Douglas (Round 3), TE Will Kacmarek (Round 3), WR Chris Bell (Round 3), WR Kevin Coleman Jr. (Round 5)
2025 Offensive Ranks
| PPG | YPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
| 25 | 25 | 30 | 25 | 24 | 13 |
Where do we begin? No, seriously, Dolphins fans help me out. It was rough last year for Miami, and now they have a new coaching staff, QBs, receivers, and the list goes on and on. Last year, the defense didn’t help either, allowing a 72% completion percentage, the highest in the NFL in 2025, and the third highest all-time. Now you ask yourself, can it get worse? Vegas thinks so. Miami is favored in just ONE game all season long, and they have the second toughest strength of schedule, according to Warren Sharp.
I think Jason did a great job of summing up the Miami pass catchers: “There’s plenty of examples in history where it’s a healthy WR core that has absolutely nothing of relevance, and this is a very predictable [WR core]. If you want to take a shot on one of their rookies, Caleb Douglas or Chris Bell, to have a surprise breakout, okay. But I’m not going to.”
For those who are worried about De’Von Achane and the Miami offense struggling so much that he will not be productive, maybe just look back at 2025, when the Dolphins struggled… and he wasn’t one of the most consistent RBs in fantasy; he was THE most consistent RB in fantasy. Achane can get it done on the ground and in the air, so regardless of game script, he is a blessing for most fantasy teams. The slight concern you may have is that Tua really enjoyed checking the ball down, and in the small samples we have seen of Malik Willis, he has not really done that. The Ballers are split on Achane because the offense is bad, not the player.
Malik Willis is not someone you should be staring down in fantasy drafts that you must draft, but his mobility makes him somewhat intriguing.
Malik Willis attempted 35 passes in 2025.
Here is all of them 📽️ pic.twitter.com/88NruFREJU
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) March 4, 2026
Much like Kincaid, Greg Dulcich was extremely good on a YPRR basis at 2.38, but again, a tiny sample size. I agree with Andy that he is a decent sleeper pick since Miami is projected to be down in a lot of games, and none of the other pass catchers (to include Dulcich) have proven anything to give you any hope. “I think that he is one of the more interesting names on a team that seems mostly uninteresting.” Well said, Andy.
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 4.5
Dec 28, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) carries the ball as New England Patriots linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson (44) pursues during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
New York Jets (3-14)
- Player Additions: QB Geno Smith, WR Tim Patrick (Fireball Jones)
- Player Subtractions: WR John Metchie III, QB Justin Fields, QB Tyrod Taylor
- Rookies: TE Kenyon Sadiq (Round 1), WR Omar Cooper Jr. (Round 1), QB Cade Klubnik
2025 Offensive Ranks
| PPG | YPG | Pass Att | Pass Yards | Rush Att | Rush Yards |
| 29 | 29 | 26 | 32 | 20 | 11 |
I’m genuinely debating which is worse: the Jets being tied or trailing on 93% of their offensive snaps in 2025, or that they have not made the playoffs since… –checks notes-… 2010. As someone who has been around a lot of jet exhaust during my time in the Air Force, I have to agree with Andy. I think they might actually be pumping jet exhaust directly into the building. That is really the only explanation for what has happened these last 16+ years. I suppose part of the blame should go to Aaron Glenn, but he would NEVER let that happen. Pointing fingers and dancing up the sideline is what he managed to achieve in his first year as head coach, and of course, the Jets said, “We love it, please come back.” While I dog on the Jets, I actually like where things are headed. Multiple offensive weapons taken in the first round of the 2026 draft, and they currently hold THREE first-round picks in what is supposed to be a loaded draft class. But for 2026…
Let’s look at Geno Smith. He led the league in interceptions in 2026. A lot of it is his fault, but in his defense (if there is one), he had a banged-up Brock Bowers and then Tre Tucker? He does get some nice receiving weapons in New York, comparable to what he had in 2024 during his stint with the Seahawks, with DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker, and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Geno finished as the QB13 in 2024 with that ensemble. People are not banking on Geno Smith in fantasy drafts (nor should they). Jason doesn’t think Geno is good, but he does believe he is an upgrade at the QB position. Now, what do we think about the supporting cast?
A Breece Hall dynasty manager reacts to the extension news… 👀 pic.twitter.com/FiklIQkC3m
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) May 13, 2026
I am not sure I like Meow-son Taylor for fantasy. Not because I’m allergic to cats. Not because he is not a DAWG. It’s because I do not actually believe he is a cat. Have you seen a cat? They are crazy elusive. Mason Taylor is not. I believe Moo-son Taylor has a better ring to it.
Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. are players you can throw darts at late in drafts. Samuel DiSorbo wrote a great article that goes into depth analyzing the 2026 Rookie WR Class for Redraft.
I would much rather talk about Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall. There is an article by Joe Beldner titled: 10 Tips & Tricks to Help You Win Your Fantasy Football League in 2024, and it recaps the Ballers’ favorite tips, with one saying that, “contributing effectively to fantasy football becomes challenging if they (the player) are part of a poor-performing offense.” So do keep that in mind when you draft Wilson and Hall because if you are aiming for ceiling, you might airball. Jason is really into Garrett Wilson, having him as his WR12 while his ADP has him at WR17! Do we have our first My Guy?
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 5.5
Who Wins the AFC East?
Andy: Bills, Patriots, Jets, Dolphins
Jason: Bills, Patriots, Jets, Dolphins
Mike: Bills, Patriots, Dolphins, Jets