AFC South Divisional Podcast Recap For 2026 (Fantasy Football)
Next up in our Divisional Recap Series: the vaunted AFC South, my home division! The 2025 season was a tale of two halves.
The standings after Week 10:
- Indianapolis: 8-2
- Jacksonville: 5-4
- Houston: 4-5
- Tennessee: 1-8
Then:
- Indianapolis lost its final seven games
- Jacksonville won its final seven games (eight in total)
- Houston won its final seven games (nine in total)
- Tennessee still sucked
What team will carry its 2025 run into the 2026 season, and whose fate will reverse course? Let’s see what the Ballers have to say about the AFC South in 2026.
A reminder that we are up to three shows a week now – tune in to The Fantasy Footballers Podcast on all your devices!
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Make sure to check out the full version of the episode on YouTube!
Let’s Get Divisional – AFC South
Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)
Player Additions: RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (CROD)
Player Subtractions: RB Travis Etienne Jr., WR Dyami Brown
Rookies: TE Nate Boerkircher (Round 2), TE Tanner Koziol (Round 5)
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
2025 Offensive Ranks:
| Fantasy Points | Offensive Plays | ||||||||||
| Team | Points | All | QB | RB | WR | TE | All | Run | Run% | Pass | Pass% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 27.9 | 59.9 | 20.8 | 6.2 | 24.9 | 8 | 64.3 | 28.8 | 44.7% | 35.5 | 55.3% |
Duvaaal turned into an NFL hotspot to finish the 2025 season, as Liam Coen seemed to finally unlock Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense. The Jags went on an eight-win run to end the season; they earned the three seed in a very competitive AFC playoff race, and they gave the Bills a legitimate fight in the playoffs. This team won more than 10 games for the first time since 2017.
The Jags offer three main questions for fantasy in 2026:
- Can Trevor Lawrence continue his strong second half and maintain top-10 QB status?
- How will the targets be divided between Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers, Brenton Strange, and the RBs?
- How will the backfield split look between Bhayshul Tuten, Chris Rodriguez, and LeQuint Allen?
The Ballers believe Lawrence’s success is repeatable due to the Coen offensive system and the offensive weaponry surrounding him. I agree and am happy drafting TLaw as my QB1 late in redraft leagues. The WR question has been discussed at length, and the Ballers are really loving the draft value of Parker Washington over the rest. Mike is still holding a candle for Brian Thomas Jr., but it is a very cautious optimism. Brenton Strange could be a sneaky late-round value pick at TE as well, after signing a fancy new contract this offseason.
As for the RB room, Mike sees the upside in Tuten, expecting him to be boot-scootin’ up to top-end RB volume this season. Andy and Jason are skeptical (3.7 YPC last year), worrying that CROD will be vulturing valuable work. If LeQuint Allen takes substantial receiving work, Tuten and Rodriguez may both be overvalued in drafts.
Parker Washington averaged 22.3 PPR points per game over the final four weeks of last season and it's like none of you care 😭pic.twitter.com/ySAZOx08Pg
— FantasyPros (@FantasyPros) May 17, 2026
Houston Texans (12-5)
Player Additions: TE Foster Moreau
Player Subtractions: RB Nick Chubb, RB Joe Mixon, WR Christian Kirk
Rookies: TE Marlin Klein (Round 2)
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 9.5
2025 Offensive Ranks:
| Fantasy Points | Offensive Plays | ||||||||||
| Team | Points | All | QB | RB | WR | TE | All | Run | Run% | Pass | Pass% |
| Houston Texans | 23.8 | 62.8 | 17 | 10.4 | 26.6 | 8.9 | 64 | 27.9 | 43.7% | 36.1 | 56.3% |
The Texans were one of the scariest playoff matchups, largely due to their imposing defense. The offense, on the other hand, was not as intimidating. They ranked middle of the pack in almost every offensive category, and the seat is getting a bit toasty for CJ Stroud. Questions facing the Texans in 2026:
- Can CJ Stroud be the franchise QB that was promised?
- What does the addition of David Montgomery do for this offense?
- Who steps up as WR3?
The David Montgomery analysis actually answers two of these questions. The Ballers are split on his projections: Jason expects BIG things from Montgomery (“a true 3-down back”), Mike is skeptical of a 29-year-old RB changing teams, and Andy falls closer to Jason but is more tempered. Regardless, he is an upgrade over what Woody Marks provided last season, and a stronger running game can open things up and take a lot of pressure off CJ Stroud.
On the receiving front, Nico Collins is a bona fide stud, and we are hopeful that Jayden Higgins will emerge as a startable fantasy asset this year. The WR3 will be some combination of Jaylin Noel, Tank Dell (God willing), and Xavier Hutchinson, and my bet is squarely on Jaylin Noel. I was a Tank Dell believer, but the injury was so devastating that I do not see it happening. Also, despite his size, Tank is surprisingly more of an outside WR than a slot. If he gets meaningful reps, they may be at the expense of Higgins more so than Noel.
Jaylin Noel has a clear runway to be more involved in the Texans offense and showed promise in his limited opportunities as a rookie. 📈 pic.twitter.com/PHxqb1lpnq
— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) May 17, 2026
Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
Player Additions: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Player Subtractions: WR Michael Pittman, QB Philip Rivers
Rookies: RB Seth McGowan (Round 7), WR Deion Burks (Round 7)
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 8.5
2025 Offensive Ranks:
| Fantasy Points | Offensive Plays | ||||||||||
| Team | Points | All | QB | RB | WR | TE | All | Run | Run% | Pass | Pass% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 27.4 | 65.8 | 16.1 | 21.4 | 17.2 | 11 | 59.9 | 26 | 43.4% | 33.9 | 56.6% |
The Colts’ season was one of the bigger stories of 2025. Daniel Jones came to town and looked like a completely different QB from the one we had been accustomed to seeing in New York. Then he went down with a season-ending Achilles injury. And the team brought in… 44-year-old Philip Rivers? Although he looked better than I would in an NFL offense, that experiment went about as expected. The Colts lost their final seven games and now have to regroup. Their 2026 questions:
- Will Daniel Jones be healthy and good at football again this year?
- Where do the targets vacated by Michael Pittman‘s departure go?
- Can Alec Pierce and Josh Downs lead a WR room?
I will answer the Daniel Jones question with another question: Is the scheme fit what leveled up his play in 2026? If so, I think we can expect to see more of the same Daniel Jones in 2026. He is recovering well from his injury, by all accounts, and the Ballers pointed out that most of his success in 2025 came as a pocket passer anyway. Mobility, once a very important tool to his fantasy relevance, was not as important in 2025 (just 164 rushing yards, although he vultured five rushing TDs).
In the receiving game, the Ballers are banking on a “follow the money” strategy for Alec Pierce, as they expect his route tree and target share to really open up this year. Thus far, he has been typecast as a deep threat, but we should expect to see more of his game in 2026. Josh Downs has limited experience working outside the slot, but he is expected to be in on two-WR sets this season, which should be a good thing for his value. Tyler Warren should continue to ascend.
Worth noting, the team opens the season against five tough defenses: Baltimore, Kansas City, Houston, Washington, and Pittsburgh. This could depress early-season success and open a trade-for window for several Colts players. Keep it in mind!
Is a big breakout season incoming for Alec Pierce? 🤔 👀 pic.twitter.com/bmz7ze8Pw3
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) June 5, 2026
Tennessee Titans (3-14)
Player Additions: WR Wan’Dale Robinson
Player Subtractions: WR Van Jefferson, TE Chig Okonkwo
Rookies: WR Carnell Tate (Round 1), RB Nicholas Singleton (Round 5)
2026 Vegas Projected Win Total: 6.5
2025 Offensive Ranks:
| Fantasy Points | Offensive Plays | ||||||||||
| Team | Points | All | QB | RB | WR | TE | All | Run | Run% | Pass | Pass% |
| Tennessee Titans | 16.7 | 47 | 11.4 | 16 | 14.9 | 4.7 | 59.1 | 22.2 | 37.6% | 36.8 | 62.4% |
And now for my Tennessee Titans! The crown jewel of the AFC South… Nashville is abuzz about a new stadium coming in 2027, which will bring the Super Bowl in 2030. As for the team, they are on a multi-year rebuild that is off to a good start. They brought in a new coaching staff (Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll) to continue developing second-year QB Cam Ward. They drafted Carnell Tate at 1.04 in this year’s draft. They brought in Wan’Dale Robinson to shore up a putrid WR room. There are still plenty of questions for this team:
- Can Cam Ward take a Year Two leap under Brian Daboll’s direction?
- What happens with the RB room of Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, and Rookie Nicholas Singleton?
- Is Carnell Tate for real?
Cam Ward came on surprisingly strong in the second half last season, compiling a 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio and the highest completion percentage over expected in the red zone. Those may sound like nitpicking stats, and they absolutely are, but the industry narrative is that it was an awful rookie season for Ward, and that is just not entirely true. You can build on stats like those, especially with a Coordinator known for developing QBs. I have been trading for Ward in my dynasty leagues.
Tony Pollard is one of only two RBs (Derrick Henry) to have over 1,000 rushing yards in each of the last four seasons, and no one is excited to draft him in fantasy! He has five, five, and six rushing TDs over the last three seasons, and he has finished as an RB2 in each season. I personally expect a new coaching staff to try to get more out of younger backfield mates Spears and Singleton as they assess the future of the room. Pollard and Spears are free agents after this season, so there is local buzz surrounding Singleton in particular.
The offseason highlight junkies are salivating over Carnell Tate. People in Nashville are just excited to have someone to be excited about – a first since the team completely botched the A.J. Brown situation back in 2022. I expect Tate to be the target leader, followed by fellow newcomer Wan’Dale Robinson. I will leave you with this thirst trap:
Cam Ward to Carnell Tate may be unstoppable 🎯 pic.twitter.com/bzw3jolwt9
— Bussin' With The Boys (@BussinWTB) May 29, 2026
TFFB AFC South Predictions
Andy: Houston, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indianapolis
Jason: Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee
Mike: Houston, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee