2024 NFL Free Agency Winners and Losers (Fantasy Football)
The dust has settled (mostly) on the 2024 Free Agency window as a lot of the big name fantasy football stars are signed to their new teams. Some hit the open market and will move on while others are back with their team either via the Franchise Tag or a new deal. With each signing, there’s a trickle-down effect on team needs for the NFL Draft as well as a fantasy football outlook for the 2024 season and beyond. Below, we’ll take a look at the biggest winners and losers of free agency.
If you’re looking for a more detailed breakdown on every big signing, be sure to check out the most recent episodes of The Fantasy Footballers Podcast where Andy, Mike and Jason give their takes and discuss all the news!
Winners
Drake London, WR, Atlanta Falcons
How high is too high? The hype for Drake London right now is already out of control, but it’s hard not to buy in after the Falcons went out and prioritized Kirk Cousins in free agency while simultaneously moving on from Arthur Smith’s antics.
The talent for London has never been a question. As a former top-10 overall pick, London stepped on the field as a rookie and immediately posted 2.07 yards per route run. The only rookie WR with a higher target share per game rate dating back to the 2011 season was Odell Beckham. Unfortunately, he didn’t take a huge step forward in year two, but that’s likely more of a Desmond Ridder/Taylor Heinicke problem than anything else. I mean for goodness sake, the guy only has six total TDs through two NFL seasons!
In steps Kirk Cousins, who has supported multiple high end fantasy WRs throughout his career. With an increase in pass volume, London should have a chance to finally break out and post a top-24 fantasy season, something he is yet to do in the NFL. The offense should look a whole lot different under new OC Zac Robinson, which should feature plenty of 3WR sets.
For reference, last season in Atlanta under Smith the Falcons turned the clock back to 1998 and had two or fewer WRs on the field 85% (!!!) of the time. It’s not exactly the most conducive style of offense for elite WR play. Under Robinson, who comes over from the Rams, we should see a ton of 11-personnel. It’s a small sample, but in his career out of 3WR sets, London has averaged a robust 2.47 YPRR. With a major QB upgrade, a scheme upgrade and a coaching upgrade, Drake London is setup to succeed in 2024. He’s arguably the biggest winner in all of fantasy football after free agency.
D’Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
After somewhat of an uninspiring year in Philly, D’Andre Swift‘s value, especially in the free agency market seemed a bit uncertain. The Bears put that uncertainty to bed by signing him the second the legal tampering period opened. Swift agreed to a three-year deal worth $15 million.
In 2023, Swift finished as the RB23 in 16 games played, but if you zoom in prior to the Philly offensive collapse in Week 10, he averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game and almost 21 total opportunities per game in Weeks 1-10.
With this contract, Swift will have an opportunity to be the RB1 in Chicago’s revamped offense which will be led by Caleb Williams after the team selects him #1 overall in April. Since 2011, lead RBs playing alongside rookie QBs (with 10+ starts) have averaged 250+ opportunities and the RB21 finish. Swift probably won’t turn into a league winner, but he’s currently coming off the board as the RB27 over on Underdog in early best ball drafts. He looks poised for a solid RB2 season, and with this new contract, he’s got more solidified value in dynasty formats over the next two years.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The King! Henry’s time in Tennessee has come to a close, but he lands in Baltimore to play in the same backfield as Lamar Jackson. Imagine being a defensive coordinator trying to stop that…The Ravens were close to trading for Henry last year at the trade deadline, but they couldn’t get it done. Now, he lands in purple and black on a two-year deal worth $16 million.
Sure, Henry is 30 years old, which isn’t exactly the ideal time to invest in RBs, but he still finished as the RB8 for fantasy in 2023 despite Tennessee nosediving last year. On bad team while sharing the backfield with Tyjae Spears, Henry still logged almost 1,200 rushing yards and 12 rushing scores, marking his sixth straight year of double digit rushing scores.
Gus Edwards, who’s now in LA with Greg Roman, averaged over 12 fantasy points per game and 0.9 rushing scores per game in 13 Baltimore wins last season. We certainly expect the Ravens to win a lot of games again in 2024, which is notable considering Henry’s splits in wins and losses throughout his career. For reference, the Ravens have an 11.5 win total on DraftKings Sportsbook as of this writing.
The reason Edwards was so valuable for fantasy was his rushing TD equity. Henry is going to get that plus a whole lot more of the work in that backfield. The Ravens don’t run Lamar Jackson at the goal line the way the Eagles do with Jalen Hurts. We should see arguably the NFL’s best goal line back over the last 10 years get plenty of opportunities to score in a great offense.
As for the efficiency, Henry appears to still be playing at a high level. Among 57 RBs with 75+ carries last year, Henry ranked eighth in explosive rush rate, T-16th in missed tackles forced per attempt, and eighth in yards after contact per attempt. He did that while playing behind a Titans offensive line that ranked 18th in PFF’s run blocking grade and 21st in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate. Now, he lands behind a Ravens O-line that ranked sixth in PFF’s run blocking grade and fifth in ESPN’s Run Block Win Rate.
Losers
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
Spears entered the offseason as the potential replacement for Derrick Henry in Tennessee after the club drafted him in the third round last year. After a solid rookie season, many thought the new regime would give him the chance at the RB1 role similar to last year’s second-year backs, Rachaad White and Isiah Pacheco.
Not so fast! The Titans decided to sign Tony Pollard to a three-year deal worth $21.75 million with about $10.5 million in guaranteed money. It’s the type of signing that says this team has a plan for Pollard; In other words, it’s not backup money.
Spears is one of just 15 rookie RBs since 2013 with 50+ receptions in a season, and he averaged 4.5 yards per carry as a runner. He’s an efficient back, and we love betting on pass catchers, but based on what could have been, Spears is a loser from free agency as he’s now set to share the backfield with Pollard. At 5’11” and 195 pound with a significant knee injury history, perhaps dynasty managers should have seen this coming. Either way, look for this backfield to be a committee as new head coach Brian Callahan indicated this week.
.@Titans HC Brian Callahan on the pairing of RBs Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears, and how the team plans to use them. pic.twitter.com/bn8Iq3V1ay
— Jim Wyatt (@jwyattsports) March 25, 2024
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
This ain’t your mama’s Chargers ladies and gentlemen. The up-tempo and pass-heavy offenses we’ve seen over the last five or so years is seemingly completely out the window. Insert a new GM, a new head coach, and a new OC who want to run, run, run.
The team will now lean on former Michigan head coach, Jim Harbaugh, and new OC, Greg Roman. While this duo should be able to produce wins in the NFL, the expectations for this offense are clear as day:
We’ve got a pretty big sample of Greg Roman’s teams establishing the run, and that J.J. McCarthy guy? Yeah, he didn’t throw it very much in college either. As long as game script allows for it, this team is going to pound the rock over and over again. If that historical data isn’t enough, let’s just connect the dots from free agency.
This team signed two TEs (Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst) and brought in early down grinder, Gus Edwards while simultaneously releasing Mike Williams and trading Keenan Allen. Sure, a lot of that was contract/cap related, but the new staff didn’t necessarily prioritize bringing those guys back. As it stands, they’ve got four WRs on the active roster entering the NFL Draft – Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer, Derius Davis, and Simi Fehoko (everything’s fine!).
In his career, Justin Herbert has averaged 26 completions per game as he’s largely gotten there for fantasy based on volume. Greg has been an OC for 10 years in the NFL. In 162 games in the league, his QB has hit 26 completions in a game just 9.8% of the time! Bottom line: Herbert is going to have to get there with efficiency, and that’s very tough to do when your current WR1 is Quentin Johnston or a rookie.
Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Addison was selected with the 23rd overall pick in last year’s NFL Draft and showed flashes during his rookie campaign in Minnesota with a final stat line of 70/911/10. In fact, he’s one of just five rookie WRs with 10+ receiving TDs since 2014. The others? Ja’Marr Chase, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans and Calvin Ridley. Pretty, pretty good.
So why is he on the ‘Losers’ list? For starters, Addison’s rookie stats are largely skewed by the injury to Justin Jefferson. In seven games without JJetts (hamstring), Addison averaged 7.7 targets and over 60 receiving yards per game for 12.2 half PPR points per game. With the All-Pro in the lineup, Addison only saw 5.5 targets per game for just over 45 yards and 10.1 fantasy points per game. It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to understand that Addison’s stats are going to take a hit playing next to an elite talent like Jefferson, but what’s concerning about this upcoming season is that this Vikings offense loses Kirk Cousins, so Addison is going to have to take a huge step forward to overcome a QB downgrade.
As it stands, the Vikings will likely have some combination of Sam Darnold and a rookie under center in 2024. We fully expect Jefferson to get his as long as he’s healthy, but can this QB room support two top-36 fantasy WRs? For a guy like Addison, who only earned a target on 17.8% of his routes with a middling 1.51 yards per route run, a lot is going to have to go right for him to exceed expectations in year two. T.J. Hockenson (ACL) is not expected to be 100% early in the year, so Addison’s opportunity should be there early on, but it’s certainly possible we have a rookie QB trying to support three pass catchers late in the season. Historically, that has not worked out.
Looking for more on 2024 free agency? Be sure to check out the 2024 UDK+, which features the Dynasty Pass, including our Team Opportunity Report, Free Agency Tracker and Dynasty Trade Targets.