Week 7 BALLER Model: Best Bets to Cover the Spread (Fantasy Football)
This article series covers BALLER*, a machine-learning betting model that predicts which team will cover the spread in each NFL game.
Through six weeks, it has gone 51% overall, but only 45% on its selected ‘Best Picks’ (‘Best Picks’ are determined through a combination of model confidence and outside football intuition). The model looks to bounce back on ‘Best Picks’ and realign with the overall average.
This is not an official Fantasy Footballers betting model* but hopefully a useful tool to make your decisions for fantasy and leans on certain spreads and who could cover. For the full array of betting material, find season-long and weekly props in the DFS Pass and tune in every week to the DFS & Betting Podcast.
In this article, I will break down the model’s best picks for Week 7 (seven games) — let’s dive in!
Week 7 BALLER’s Best Bets
Keep in mind a couple of key points with this model:
- It focuses on the spread of the home team.
- It is applied primarily on which team can cover the spread, NOT “use this xSpread” the model spits out.
Arizona Cardinals (+7.5):
Arizona has averaged 1.3 EPA (Expected Points Added) per game in their last five–this team is more talented than you think! The BALLER model sees the most upside in this matchup–look for the Cardinals to cover +7.5.
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5):
The Falcons have averaged 15 points to the Bucs 18 in the past five weeks, putting this line at a razor-thin margin. As Atlanta has become a more pass-heavy team, the model has expected them to put up more points each week, and in turn cover their spread. Look for the Falcons to cover +2.5.
Cleveland Browns ( -3.0):
The Browns have been the strongest defense in the NFL, only allowing ~200 yards per game this season. Against a Colts squad without their starting QB, this one seems to be a lock for Cleveland.
Detroit Lions (+3.0):
The Lions roll into Baltimore as one of the hottest teams in football, winning four straight. The Ravens have played one-possession games in three of their four matchups, opening the door wide for Detroit to cover +3.0.
Washington Commanders (-2.5):
The Commanders come into New York 3-0 against the spread as the away team, and off a big win against Atlanta. The Giants are 1-5 against the spread this season and have averaged just 10 points in their last four games. Look for the Commanders to take this one and cover the spread.
Green Bay Packers (-1.0):
The Packers have been one of the BALLER model’s go-to picks each week–they’ve been 2-1 against the spread against non-division opponents, and face a Denver team that is 0-5-1 against the spread on the season. Look for the Packers to cover in this one.
New England Patriots (+8.5):
The Bills are coming off two atrocious performances, which featured a loss to the Jags and a fortuitous win against the Giants. Coming into New England leaves them quite vulnerable to a close divisional game, which is why the model picks the Pats to cover in week 7.
As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions about the model!