Week 16 BALLER Model: Best Bets to Cover the Spread (Fantasy Football)
This article series covers BALLER*, a machine-learning betting model that predicts which team will cover the spread in each NFL game.
Through fifteen weeks, it has gone 53.3% overall, and since adjustments last week, it has gone 53.6% on its selected ‘Best Picks’ (‘Best Picks’ are determined through a combination of model confidence and outside football intuition). The model looks to bounce back on ‘Best Picks’ and realign with the overall average.
This is not an official Fantasy Footballers betting model* but hopefully a useful tool to make your decisions for fantasy and leans on certain spreads and who could cover. For the full array of betting material, find season-long and weekly props in the DFS Pass and tune in every week to the DFS & Betting Podcast.
In this article, I will break down the model’s best picks for Week 16 (five games) — let’s dive in!
Week 16 BALLER’s Best Bets
Keep in mind a couple of key points with this model:
- It focuses on the spread of the home team.
- It is applied primarily on which team can cover the spread, NOT “use this xSpread” the model spits out.
New York Giants (+13.5):
The Giants head to Philly for a divisional matchup against an Eagles squad that has dropped three straight. The Eagles are just 7-5-2 against the spread and have been inconsistent through the back half of this season. Looking at the EPA/play trends for each team, we see a large amount of variance in performance in the past five weeks. Look for the Giants to take advantage of this inconsistency and cover the spread.
Green Bay Packers (-4.0):
The Packers take on the two-win Carolina Panthers as just four-point favorites in Week 16. They’re 5-1 against the spread against teams with equal rest, and while they’ve lost two straight, their efficiency has taken a turn, especially with the improved play from Jordan Love. He’s thrown two or more TDs in five of his last six games, and will surely be able to continue his strong play against one of the weakest defenses in the league. Look for the Packers to cover this surprisingly small spread.
Denver Broncos (-7.5):
The Broncos are 7.5-point favorites against a historically weak Patriots team. The Pats have put up less than 10 points in three of their last five, and are 2-7-1 against the spread as the underdog this season. On the flip side, the Broncos are averaging 21.7 points a game–they should be able to take care of business this week and cover the spread.
Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5):
The Chiefs come into this week with a 3-1 record against the spread in divisional matchups this season and face an incredibly inconsistent Raiders team. Looking at the EPA/play trends for each team in the last eight weeks, we see that while the Chiefs have certainly underperformed lately, they’ve remained fairly consistent compared to the Raiders. With home-field advantage, they should be able to take care of business against a Raiders team that got blanked just two weeks ago.
San Francisco 49ers (-6.0):
The Niners open as six-point favorites against the Ravens–while this game should certainly be close, San Fran has won four straight and managed to win by large margins against some formidable opponents (23 points against the Eagles and also 12 and 18 points against the Seahawks). The Ravens are averaging over a turnover per game, and face a top-tier defense on the road–the loss of Keaton Mitchell, and Zay Flowers‘ recent struggles (one Reception for seven yards in Week 15), the model seems to have found an edge with the Niners to cover.
That’s all for this article, as always, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions!