Week 15 BALLER Model: Best Bets to Cover the Spread (Fantasy Football)
This article series covers BALLER*, a machine-learning betting model that predicts which team will cover the spread in each NFL game.
Through fourteen weeks, it has gone 53.1% overall, and since adjustments last week, it has gone 53.4% on its selected ‘Best Picks’ (‘Best Picks’ are determined through a combination of model confidence and outside football intuition). The model looks to bounce back on ‘Best Picks’ and realign with the overall average.
This is not an official Fantasy Footballers betting model* but hopefully a useful tool to make your decisions for fantasy and leans on certain spreads and who could cover. For the full array of betting material, find season-long and weekly props in the DFS Pass and tune in every week to the DFS & Betting Podcast.
In this article, I will break down the model’s best picks for Week 15 (five games) — let’s dive in!
Week 15 BALLER’s Best Bets
Keep in mind a couple of key points with this model:
- It focuses on the spread of the home team.
- It is applied primarily on which team can cover the spread, NOT “use this xSpread” the model spits out.
Houston Texans (+3.0):
The Texans head to Tennessee for a divisional matchup following a horrendous 30-6 loss to the New York Jets. While the loss is a terrible look, Houston is 3-2 against the spread following a loss and is 3-1 against the spread as an away underdog. This is practically a must-win for a team on the playoff bubble late in the season–the Texans will come into this one prepared. We’ll take them to cover this week.
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5):
The Niners come in as 13.5 favorites against an Arizona team that is allowing over 350 yards per game this season. San Fran’s high-powered offense has averaged over 400 yards per game and won five straight, each by 12 points or more (including a 42-19 victory over the Eagles). Comparing each team’s EPA/game trend in their last six, it is clear that the 49ers are simply playing on another level. BALLER takes them to cover this week.
Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5):
The Chiefs head to Foxborough as 9.5-point favorites against a struggling New England team. The Chiefs have gone a decent 7-6 against the spread as the favorite this season–what is enticing is the Patriot’s 1-5 record against the spread as the home team. Not only this, but New England has averaged an abysmal eight and a half points per game in their last four–against the Chiefs’ stout defense, they should have trouble putting points on the board in this one. Look for the Chiefs to cover in this one.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.0):
Following Joe Burrow‘s season-ending injury, the Bengals have looked surprisingly…well…good. They’ve gone 2-1 with Jake Browning at the helm, and have put up 34 points in two games straight. The Vikings, on the other hand, have been on a downward trajectory following Josh Dobb’s first magical start for the team–they’ve lost two of their last three and only managed to put up three points against the Raiders in their victory last week. These teams’ EPA/game trends are quite the opposite, and we expect the game results to be representative of what the following graphic shows.
Miami Dolphins (-8.5):
The Dolphins head into this divisional matchup as 8.5-point favorites–in their first matchup against the Jets this season, they came away victorious, 34-13. BALLER doesn’t see this one going much differently. The Jets are just 1-2-1 against the spread following a win and have allowed 24 points per game in divisional matchups this season. BALLER loves Miami to cover at home in this one.
That’s all for this article, as always, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions!