Week 13 BALLER Model: Best Bets to Cover the Spread (Fantasy Football)
This article series covers BALLER*, a machine-learning betting model that predicts which team will cover the spread in each NFL game.
Through twelve weeks, it has gone 52.8% overall, and since adjustments last week, it has gone 53.6% on its selected ‘Best Picks’ (‘Best Picks’ are determined through a combination of model confidence and outside football intuition). The model looks to bounce back on ‘Best Picks’ and realign with the overall average.
This is not an official Fantasy Footballers betting model* but hopefully a useful tool to make your decisions for fantasy and leans on certain spreads and who could cover. For the full array of betting material, find season-long and weekly props in the DFS Pass and tune in every week to the DFS & Betting Podcast.
In this article, I will break down the model’s best picks for Week 13 (five games, all favorites) — let’s dive in!
Week 13 BALLER’s Best Bets
Keep in mind a couple of key points with this model:
- It focuses on the spread of the home team.
- It is applied primarily on which team can cover the spread, NOT “use this xSpread” the model spits out.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.0):
The Chiefs are 7-4 against the spread this season and look to take on the Packers in Lambeau in Week 13. While a matchup in Green Bay against a team gaining momentum is tricky, the Chiefs’ defense has taken care of business almost every week for this KC squad. Looking at their average defensive EPA/play by week this season, they’ve only had two underperforming weeks. In addition, they now sit at four weeks in a row with a positive average EPA/Play on defense–look for them to hold down the fort against the low-scoring Packers and cover the spread.
San Francisco 49ers (-3.0):
The Niners are back on track with three straight dominant wins against the Jags (31-point win), the Bucs (13-point win), and the Seahawks (18-point win). On the other hand, the Eagles have won four straight, but can’t seem to escape close games–their last four were all decided by a TD or less. If San Fran’s stout defense can take advantage of the Eagles’ carelessness with the football (they average 1.45 turnovers per game), they should be able to go home victorious and cover the spread.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.0):
The Falcons face a New York Jets team that is nearing rock bottom. They’ve dropped four straight, losing each matchup by a margin greater than two points. As one of the most turnover-happy squads in the NFL with 1.8 per game, there is a lot of room for error for the Falcons to cover. In addition, the Jets have only posted about 14 points per game, while the Falcons have scored over 20 in each of their last four games. BALLER thinks it will be close, but we’ll take the Falcons to cover in this one.
Houston Texans (-3.5):
The Texans take on the red-hot Broncos in Week 13, looking to bounce back from their rough divisional loss against the Jaguars. While this one will certainly be close, it is up to question whether the Broncos’ offense can keep up with Houston. Stroud’s offense has averaged over 370 yards per game this season to the Broncos’ 300, and Russell Wilson has yet to prove he is back to his elite playing level. Especially considering each team’s EPA distribution over the past five weeks, the Texans have been able to elevate their game to a much higher level, while the Broncos have been consistently (slightly above) average.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.0):
The Bucs host the Panthers and open as just five-point favorites. The Panthers are an abysmal 1-10 against the spread this season and have only managed to put up 15 points or less in their last FIVE games. Tampa Bay has averaged 19 this season and needs a win in this divisional showdown to keep them in the playoff race. The BALLER model has this line quite lopsided, but do not fret–we do not interpret this to mean the Bucs should be 41-point favorites, we interpret this to mean they are bound to cover.