Week 11 BALLER Model: Best Bets to Cover the Spread (Fantasy Football)

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This article series covers BALLER*a machine-learning betting model that predicts which team will cover the spread in each NFL game.

Through ten weeks, it has gone 53% overall, and since adjustments last week, it has gone 55% on its selected ‘Best Picks’ (‘Best Picks’ are determined through a combination of model confidence and outside football intuition). The model looks to bounce back on ‘Best Picks’ and realign with the overall average.

This is not an official Fantasy Footballers betting model* but hopefully a useful tool to make your decisions for fantasy and leans on certain spreads and who could cover. For the full array of betting material, find season-long and weekly props in the DFS Pass and tune in every week to the DFS & Betting Podcast.

In this article, I will break down the model’s best picks for Week 11 (six games) — let’s dive in!

Week 11 BALLER’s Best Bets

Keep in mind a couple of key points with this model:

  • It focuses on the spread of the home team.
  • It is applied primarily on which team can cover the spread, NOT “use this xSpread” the model spits out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+12.0):

The Buccaneers travel to San Francisco as 12-point underdogs, coming off a big win against the Titans. The Bucs are 4-0 against the spread on the road this season–look for them to cover this large spread.

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Tennessee Titans (+7.0):

The Titans have dropped two straight after Will Levis‘ spectacular debut and now face a steep seven-point spread against the Jaguars on the road. Luckily, the Jags are 1-3 against the spread at home this season and have averaged -4.0 expected points added (EPA) per game in their last five. Look for Tennessee to play this divisional matchup close, and cover the spread.

Dallas Cowboys (-10.5):

The Dallas Cowboys are rolling! They’ve put up over 40 points in two of their last three games and are 6-1 against the spread as the favorite. Facing a Panthers team that has averaged 17 points per game this season, the Cowboys look like a lock to cover.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5):

The Chiefs come into what looks like the game of the week as 2.5-point favorites. Kansas City is 6-3 against the spread as the favorite this season and looks to continue this trend against Philly in Week 11. The BALLER model has them favored by over a TD, so we’ll take them to cover!

Buffalo Bills (-7.0):

The Bills have dropped two straight in embarrassing fashion and must win this divisional showdown to keep their playoff hopes alive. As seven-point favorites, the Bills should have no problem taking care of this spread against a Jets team that is averaging 10 fewer points per game. If Josh Allen can protect the ball better than he did in Week 1, the Bills should cover in this one.

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Washington Commanders (-9.0):

The Commanders are nine-point favorites against the Giants, who are averaging an abysmal 11 points per game this season. New York is also 1-5 against the spread as the away team this season and has immensely struggled to move the rock without Daniel Jones at QB. Look for Washington to take care of business in this one and cover the spread.

As always, feel free to reach out on Twitter with any questions about the model!

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