Week 10 BALLER Model: Best Bets to Cover the Spread (Fantasy Football)
This article series covers BALLER*, a machine-learning betting model that predicts which team will cover the spread in each NFL game.
Through nine weeks, it has gone 52.4% overall, and since adjustments last week, it has gone 58.3% on its selected ‘Best Picks’ (‘Best Picks’ are determined through a combination of model confidence and outside football intuition). The model looks to bounce back on ‘Best Picks’ and realign with the overall average.
This is not an official Fantasy Footballers betting model* but hopefully a useful tool to make your decisions for fantasy and leans on certain spreads and who could cover. For the full array of betting material, find season-long and weekly props in the DFS Pass and tune in every week to the DFS & Betting Podcast.
In this article, I will break down the model’s best picks for Week 10 (six games) — let’s dive in!
Week 10 BALLER’s Best Bets
Keep in mind a couple of key points with this model:
- It focuses on the spread of the home team.
- It is applied primarily on which team can cover the spread, NOT “use this xSpread” the model spits out.
Denver Broncos (+7.0):
The Broncos face a struggling Buffalo team on the road as seven-point underdogs. They’ve covered the spread two weeks in a row and should do so again in Week 10.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.0):
The Falcons come in as two-point favorites against the Cardinals, who are bringing QB Kyler Murray back from IR this week. The Cards have scored 10 points or less in three of their last four games, featuring a shutout last week against the Browns. Look for Atlanta to cover in this one.
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5):
Seattle is looking to bounce back from a beat down in Week 9 as they gear up to face off against the Commanders, who have begun the tanking process. While Washington has looked strong on the road this season, the Seahawks are 2-0 against the spread coming off a loss–look for them to take care of business this week.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0):
It’s baffled all of us at times, but the Steelers keep finding ways to win football games. Coming off a long rest and a big win over Tennessee, the Steel Curtain should be able to take care of this three-point spread, especially facing a careless Packers offense, who are averaging a turnover per game.
Baltimore Ravens (-6.5):
The Ravens might just be the hottest team in the NFL–they’ve posted over 30 points in each of their last three games and have annihilated some of the strongest teams in the league (Detroit and Seattle). They are 6-3 against the spread this season and face off against a Browns squad that is 0-3-1 against the spread following a win. BALLER loves the Ravens to cover this 6.5-point spread.
Dallas Cowboys (-17.0):
The Cowboys come in as HEAVY favorites against the Giants, who are 2-7 against the spread this season. Without their starting QB, Daniel Jones, the New York offense has looked anemic–There is no doubt this dominant Cowboys defense will hold the Giants to a low point total, especially considering New York is averaging 1.33 turnovers per game. Look for Dallas to cover this massive spread!
As always, if you have any questions about the model, feel free to reach out on Twitter!