Forecasting for the 2024 NFL Draft: Version 2.0 (Fantasy Football)
We inch closer and closer to a day where millions of people watch other people read names. I tried to talk to my wife about the significance of the draft considering 54.4 million people watched last year’s in Kansas City:
My wife: why is the draft such a big deal?
Me: it's one of the most televised events of the year! people read pieces of paper w/ names of dudes in their 20s to find out where they will be employed & what color laundry they wear!
Her: so the sorting hat meets a Tide commercial
— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) March 13, 2024
The more you step back and think about the draft, it is such a wild spectacle that the NFL can capture this much attention… in late April. Let’s be honest, the draft consumes the minds of fantasy football managers and anyone obsessed with dynasty fantasy football for a lot of the year.
A month ago, I wrote the 1.0 version of this article outlining the process of forecasting. I emphasized the following (for those TLDR folks)
- We need to remove blinders and figure out what is noise.
- We are quick to make up our minds and too slow to change them.
- The goal of making forecasts is to see where we’ve come from and notice how the markets adjust over time.
I compiled a list of 18 questions in late January and gave my somewhat educated estimation of my confidence at the time. I asked Betz to participate and used a combination of betting markets on DraftKings and FanDuel for the few NFL Draft props available at the time. I also utilized Grinding the Mocks as an aggregate to highlight the “expected draft position”. This is not a perfect science but mock drafts are a data point worth adding to part of this puzzle
Keep in mind that the questions did not change. We change our opinions about these questions over time but changing the question defeats some of the purpose. We definitely could make a whole new list at this point and start in mid-March on.
The questions below between Betz and myself give more context and discussion around our forecasts.
What player’s status has changed the most from late January?
Borg – Joe Alt went from being one of the first OTs in the mix for the draft to vaulting to top-dog status on most boards. Perhaps the bigger change is who he’s being connected with as he now sits as the favorite to go No. 5 overall to the Chargers. At first, it was Brock Bowers or Malik Nabers penciled in, which still could happen. However, the Chargers’ decision to hire the WWE coaching tag team of Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman gives us some signal that an offensive lineman could be in the mix. We know all about the high-T ways of Roman and the team also backed up that philosophy in free agency as Betz mentioned here:
The Chargers' plans could not be more clear:
* Hire Jim Harbaugh
* Hire Greg Roman
* Sign an early down grinder at RB
* Sign a blocking TE pic.twitter.com/14yiPSoY0G— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) March 11, 2024
Betz – It’s hard not to list J.J. McCarthy here. Following the 2023-2024 college football season, things have gone from “Oh he might sneak into Round 1” to “Oh this guy is almost certainly going to go in the top 15, if not higher.” I always try to pump the brakes when this much steam develops on a QB early in the process (see Levis, Will and Willis, Malik), and it’s a good reminder that QBs are generally way over-mocked in the NFL Draft community. However, it’s hard to ignore the steady drumbeat on Michigan’s QB. Following free agency, the Vikings and Broncos look desperate to add QB help while the Giants and Raiders are also possibilities.
Which player’s NFL Draft stock improved the most post-combine?
Borg – There are a ton of answers here from Texas’ Xavier Worthy to Penn State’s Theo Johnson. I’m going to lock in on Adonai Mitchell. My fantasy evaluation wasn’t as kind on the dynasty podcast but he posted the 3rd highest weight-adjusted speed score running a blistering 4.34 40-time at 205 pounds and looked fluid in all his drills. His expected draft position (EDP) now sits at 29.6 as the WR5. That is a comfortable space to be in for “diet Tee Higgins” despite some of the red flags on his production profile.
Betz – Quinyon Mitchell, the CB out of Toledo, entered the NFL Draft process as a top-20 pick and the CB2 in the class behind Alabama’s Terrion Arnold, but following his performance at the Combine where he scored 9.84/10 on the RAS, I think he’s now in the mix to be the first CB off the board. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Arnold hear his name called first, but Mitchell is now the 13th overall prospect in Daniel Jeremiah’s Top-50 Rankings and the 11th overall player on Dane Brugler’s Big Board.
Which 1st round player/team connection is the public too overconfident in?
Borg – Rome Odunze to the Bears at 9th overall feels like a copy and paste at this point. It’s like someone started copying someone else’s paper and that same test got passed around so much in class that the teacher obviously knows no one truly understood what the question was asking. Could Odunze go to the Bears? Certainly. But the overconfidence that the Bears will lock in “a WR to pair with Caleb Williams” is a bit too much from a betting perspective. Odunze might not even be on the board when they pick at No. 9 with his expected draft position climbing from 8.8 a month ago to 7.8 after the combine. The Bears have a number of needs and while they don’t pick again until 75th overall in the 3rd round, it wouldn’t shock me to see Chicago trade back and acquire some assets if a QB-hungry team wants to move into the top-10 for a swap. Stay water, my friends.
Betz – Almost every mock draft you read these days has Xavier Worthy going to the Chiefs at 32 following his 4.21 at the Combine. While I do admit that would be sooooo fun for fantasy and it does fill a major need for this team, it seems to be a bit too chalky at this point. This WR class is considered extremely deep, so what if they opt for a different position at 32 and then try to grab one in Round 2? Or, what if they have one of the other WRs higher on their board? Ladd McConkey, AD Mitchell, Troy Franklin, Keon Coleman, Roman Wilson, Xavier Legette, and others are all considered top-40ish prospects.
Where have you changed your mind the most drastically since late January?
Borg – To be honest, I had not watched very much J.J. McCarthy film leading up to February. I had watched the College Football Playoffs and kept a casual eye on Michigan most of the year but viewing McCarthy through the lens of being an NFL Draft prospect was not something on my radar when I was winding down the NFL season and moving my attention to dynasty and off-season content. When we scouted the QB prospects for the Dynasty podcast, I was impressed and slightly shocked by what I saw. The raw production numbers look a bit underwhelming but he made sense as a 1st round prospect for the first time. The drumbeat for McCarthy has steadily grown as he is being connected to a number of teams in the top-15 of the draft. I’m in not just as an NFL prospect but he’s being connected to teams like the Vikings (+180 on DK Sportsbook) at 11th overall and Broncos (+350) at 12th overall.
Betz – I really wanted to find reasons to buy into Malachi Corley both for fantasy and in the NFL, but after he didn’t test at the Combine, he sort of fell behind (at least in terms of perceived value) guys like Ladd McConkey, Roman Wilson and Ricky Pearsall, who all have gotten consistent buzz since the season ended. Corley’s YAC ability is great, but I’m not sure if he’s really an NFL WR given that he wasn’t asked to do much in terms of route running in college (We need to chill with the Deebo comps). Not having any combine testing numbers to back him up certainly isn’t helping right now.
What market are you most unsure of at this point in the process?
Borg – The WR market is tough to get a gauge on as 7(!) WRs currently have an expected draft position <32 according to GrindingtheMocks.com. This year’s class has some absolute studs at the top that you already know about but we’re hearing some chatter about a number of late-round teams being connected to guys like Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Ladd McConkey, and Troy Franklin. Seven seems a bit bullish to me considering we haven’t hit that number once over the last decade.
| Year | 1st Round WRs |
| 2014 | 5 |
| 2015 | 6 |
| 2016 | 4 |
| 2017 | 3 |
| 2018 | 2 |
| 2019 | 2 |
| 2020 | 6 |
| 2021 | 5 |
| 2022 | 6 |
| 2023 | 4 |
Offensive fantasy positions (such as WR) are routinely mocked higher due to sheer excitement and trying to play matchmaker where the NFL has shown the ability to be confident waiting until Round 2 to pull the trigger. I see Big Boards with 10+ WRs going in the top 40 and while I do see validation for the talent, at the end of the day there are only 32 spots available in the NFL Draft. Currently, I’m leaning into historical odds and the field (aka non-WRs) occupying at least 26+ spots on the board.
Betz – The Draft ultimately starts at #2 with Washington after the Bears select Caleb Williams. Entering the process, it seemed pretty clear that Maye was the preferred prospect over Jayden Daniels. However, Daniels is now favored to go #2 overall at (-145) on DraftKings. Following the Combine, Mike Sando released an article surveying where he surveyed six NFL execs on their top 10. Five of the six had Daniels > Maye. However, one thing that was interesting in that article was this snippet: “The one holdout for Maye in this slot said he heard Commanders general manager Adam Peters was “really into” Maye. The fit could be appealing. Maye and incumbent Commanders starter Sam Howell were teammates at North Carolina. Howell could open the 2024 season as the starter if the Commanders wanted to give Maye time to assimilate.” At this point, I think the market is a bit overconfident in Daniels at #2 overall but I must admit, if we’re looking for clues from free agency, the Commanders did sign Marcus Mariota to a backup contract. His play style is more similar to Daniels than Maye. Time will tell…
Give us a bold prediction of a player’s draft stock before late April’s draft.
Borg– Brock Bowers falls out of the top-15 in expected draft position and ends up being selected past pick 20.
Betz – Clemson’s corner, Nate Wiggins, was considered a top CB prospect in this class entering the process. He weighed in at just 173 pounds, which is in the 1st percentile for Round 1 CBs. We haven’t seen a first-round corner with this kind of weight/arm length. It’s possible he falls out of Round 1.