2023 NFL Season Long Prop Bets (Fantasy Football)
Betting on the NFL is becoming increasingly more difficult as the years go by and as the markets adjust. However, one market that remains beatable is player props, specifically season long player props. Last season, we went 8-2 with our official 2022 bets, focusing primarily on taking unders in this market. There’s no doubt that across a multiple year sample, unders are going to hit at a much higher rate than overs when trying to project what might happen over the course of a full season. Why is that? There’s many things that can go wrong for a player across an 18-week regular season.
Here are a few:
- Injuries happen in the NFL – that’s just a fact, especially at the RB position. We’ll be searching for unders for backs given that it’s rare a back plays all 17 games. Most will miss 2-3 at a minimum based on historical numbers.
- Teammates missing time – If a starting QB goes down, that entire offense is likely to suffer, especially a WR, who’s target quality could be negatively impacted. Similarly, if one or multiple starting offensive linemen go down, the running back’s efficiency could suffer.
- Coaching and scheme change- These can change a player’s usage (targets, carries, etc.)
For an over to hit on a season long outlook, so much has to go right. No doubt, unders are the way to go if you’re looking to profit in this market. Be sure to line shop for the best odds if you have access to multiple books to always grab the best number and odds!
For this article, I looked directly at Andy, Mike and Jason’s Premium Projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit and compared them to the Vegas odds then added some context around the projection and the associated bet. Be sure to bookmark this page and check back frequently as I’ll be adding more throughout the offseason. Best of luck with all your wagers!
*Lines accurate at time of publishing*
1. Bryce Young U3925.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Average Ballers Projection: 3,376 yards
Analysis: Since 2010, only four rookie QBs have cleared this line: Andrew Luck, Justin Herbert, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. Of course, that was back when the schedule was only 17 games, but still, it’s a high line to clear for any rookie QB. The pass catchers in Carolina aren’t exactly inspiring, and our projections show a strong under.