Player Props to Bet for the 2022 NFL Season (Fantasy Football)
Over the last two weeks, DraftKings Sportsbook released arguably the biggest menu of season long player props in the industry, creating a huge opportunity for fantasy players and gamblers to make a decent profit in the softest betting market that exists in the NFL:Season Long Player Totals. Before we dive into the specific bets I’m making for the 2022 season, let’s talk about some basic strategy in this market.
4for4’s Connor Allen recently posted on Twitter a thread about last season’s props results. His data shows an overwhelming support for betting unders on player props on a season long outlook. He found that 66.6% of passing, rushing and receiving props hit last season, and while that may change a little bit year to year, there’s no doubt that across a multiple year sample, unders are going to hit at a much higher rate than overs. Why is that? There’s many things that can go wrong for a player across an 18-week regular season.
Here are a few:
- Injuries happen in the NFL – that’s just a fact, especially at the RB position. We’ll be searching for unders for backs given that it’s rare a back plays all 17 games. Most will miss 2-3 at a minimum based on historical numbers.
- Teammates missing time – If a starting QB goes down, that entire offense is likely to suffer, especially a WR, who’s target quality could be negatively impacted. Similarly, if one or multiple starting offensive linemen go down, the running back’s efficiency could suffer.
- Coaching and scheme change- These can change a player’s usage (targets, carries, etc.)
For an over to hit on a season long outlook, so much has to go right. No doubt, unders are the way to go if you’re looking to profit in this market. Be sure to line shop for the best odds if you have access to multiple books to always grab the best number and odds!
For this article, I looked directly at Andy, Mike and Jason’s Premium Projections in the Ultimate Draft Kit and compared them to the Vegas odds then added some context around the projection and the associated bet. Be sure to bookmark this page and check back frequently as I’ll be adding more throughout the offseason. Best of luck with all your wagers!
*Lines accurate at time of publishing*
1. Mike Gesicki U625.5 Receiving Yards (+100)
Average Ballers Projection: 655 yards
Analysis: Mike Gesicki quietly had a very solid season for Miami last year, running primarily as the 2nd pass catcher in that offense behind Jaylen Waddle. However, a lot has changed in a year’s time. The Dolphins have a new coaching staff that is likely to prioritize the run and a lower average depth of target. Now, Gesicki will certainly be taking a backseat to Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill in the Dolphins passing game. All three Ballers have Gesicki projected for at least 15-20 receptions fewer than had a year ago, and we know TEs in general outside of the top-55 aren’t reliable for consistent production. Despite our projection showing a slight over, let’s take the under at even money.