The TRUTH: Top 10 Fantasy QBs + Most Surprising Teams

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Can you handle the TRUTH? On today’s fantasy football podcast, a closer look at the top quarterback finishers of the 2023 season! Consistency rankings and tons more! Get the TRUTH about how these players actually impacted fantasy football teams. Manage your redraft, keeper, and dynasty fantasy football teams with the #1 fantasy football podcast. — Fantasy Football Podcast for January 18th, 2024.

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Summary:

The Truth about Quarterbacks 01:22

  • The hosts will be breaking down the performance of the quarterback position this year.
  • They warn that the truth can be hard to hear.
  • The hosts prepared for this episode by scoring based on truth metrics.
  • The hosts comment that they did not like the truth and were upset by it.

“The truth can be hard to hear sometimes.”

Changing Draft Strategies 02:17

  • One of the hosts suggests that their draft strategy may change based on what they discovered in preparing for this episode.
  • They don’t reveal the specifics yet but indicate that it did have an impact.

“I think it did. Yeah.”

Thanking the Audience 02:27

  • The hosts express gratitude to the audience for supporting the show.
  • They direct listeners to footclanvote.com for an important vote.

“We want to thank everybody that’s been supporting this show.”

Choosing the Best NFL Team 03:48

  • The hosts discuss which NFL team this year was the best or most different from what they expected.
  • One host mentions a surprise team, while another wanted to focus on a team that operated differently than anticipated.
  • The Dallas Cowboys are highlighted as an example of a team that flipped the expectations for their offense.

“A hightee run the ball as many times as we possibly can.”

CJ Stroud and Nico Collins 07:49

  • CJ Stroud had a great season as a rookie quarterback.
  • Nico Collins also had a standout performance.
  • Tankdale was another impressive player.
  • Brown and Dalton Schultz contributed to the team’s success.
  • The historical data shows that rookie quarterbacks usually don’t have top wide receivers.

CJ Stroud is the first rookie ever to support two top 15 wide receivers in points per game.” 08:31

The Surprising Detroit Lions 09:25

  • The Detroit Lions exceeded expectations.
  • Jameer Gibbs and Montgomery performed well as running backs.
  • Amin Ra, Sam Laporta, and Jared Goff all impressed.
  • The team had two top 12 fantasy running backs, a top five wide receiver, and a top five tight end.

“They weren’t just good for fantasy football. They were fantastic.” 10:01

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Tampa Bay wanted it more 15:43

  • Tampa Bay showed a stronger desire to win than Philadelphia.
  • Tampa Bay tackled better and fought for the extra yard.
  • Todd Bowles and the coaching staff in Tampa prepared the team well.
  • The coaching staff in Tampa did a great job despite the challenge of losing Brady and having a high amount of dead cap.

“Tampa Bay just absolutely wanted it more is what I’m going to say.”

Baker Mayfield‘s maturation process 16:42

  • Baker Mayfield has shown growth and improvement compared to a year ago.
  • He has exceeded expectations by becoming the starting quarterback for the team.
  • Mayfield’s development is commendable.

“Congratulations on kind of a maturation process here.”

Blowouts in the playoffs 17:09

  • Some people complained about the blowouts in the playoffs, but they add excitement and unpredictability to the game.
  • The NFL offers great competition and thrilling TV when unexpected outcomes occur.

“What are you going to do about this NFL? You know, these blowouts was the non-favorite teams. What are you going to do about it? This is great competition.”

Green Bay and Tampa Bay’s impressive performance 18:29

  • Green Bay showcased an impressive offensive performance against the Dallas defense, which was outcoached from a personnel standpoint.
  • Tampa Bay also had a dominant performance against Philadelphia.
  • Both teams demonstrated their effectiveness and incredible skills.

“And it was, well, Green Bay recognized that Dallas kept staying small against their big guys and just how effective and incredible Green Bay was.” “And the same for, for Tampa, like it was, it was really fun to watch.”

The tumultuous situation in Philadelphia 18:30

  • The Philadelphia situation is expected to be tumultuous due to the team’s many free agents and the departure of Jason Kelsey.
  • Jalen Hurts had a significant decline in performance in the second half of the season.
  • The team’s offensive dynamics will be heavily discussed and rebuilding may be necessary.
  • Potential reports may reveal that Hurts was more injured than initially thought.

“It will not be a, I think, an automatic assumption that this offense will just get back to form.” “It will be unsurprising to me in whatever two months time if the report comes out, oh, Jalen Hurts was actually way more hurt than we thought.”

Uncertain future for the New Orleans Saints 19:57

  • The firing of the offensive coordinator by the Saints may not be enough to address the team’s issues.
  • Fans and offensive players are dissatisfied with the current situation and desire a coaching change.
  • There may be uncertainty and chaos if the team lacks a proper transition plan.

“Are they going to go full Lord of the Flies down there?” “No, I’m saying, no, the coach is like, yeah, the coach is there, but just what if it’s when the team takes over Winston takes over which James is the head coach.”

Top 10 quarterbacks of 2023 and passing trends 22:19

  • The upcoming discussion is about the top 10 quarterbacks from the 2023 season.
  • The focus will be on how these quarterbacks influenced fantasy teams and the investment made in each round to acquire them.
  • The discussion will also touch on passing trends throughout the league.

“The top 10 quarterbacks from 2023. The truth about the position, about how they affected your fantasy team, about the investment you made in each round on quarterbacks and some league-wide passing trends.”

Efficiency of passers 22:42

  • Passers were less efficient.
  • Defenses are performing better.

“It was less efficient for passers.”

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Impact of quarterback injuries 22:47

  • Quarterback injuries had a significant effect on the season.
  • Wide receiver injuries also affected quarterback performance.
  • Backup quarterbacks generally did not perform well.

“You also had a lot of quarterback injuries this year that really played a part of it.”

Lowest touchdown rate since 2011 22:53

  • This year had the lowest touchdown rate since 2011.
  • Fantasy points per pass attempt also reached a low point.

“This was the lowest touchdown rate since 2011.” “The lowest fantasy points per pass attempt since 2011.”

Impact on fantasy performance 23:20

  • The lower efficiency and quarterback injuries affected fantasy performance.
  • Streaming quarterbacks became more difficult due to the unpredictability of backups.
  • 67 different quarterbacks started an NFL game this year, leading to inconsistency.

“The difficult part with the backups that performed is that nobody bought in in week one. Most people didn’t buy in for week two, and then when you could buy into one of them, it was like, is the starter back? It’s hard to nail those when it comes to streaming quarterbacks. There were 67 quarterbacks that started an NFL game this year and 43 different quarterbacks that had a top 12 performance.”

Definition of “the truth” 25:00

  • The truth refers to the consistency and performance of players.
  • It takes into account different thresholds of points for quarterbacks.
  • It factors in great games, good games, average games, bust games, and super bust games.

“So what we do, you know, a lot of times we use the word consistency, but it’s more than just consistency because we do factor in how often they had great games versus good games versus average games versus bust games versus super bust games. We take a look at basically different thresholds of points for these quarterbacks.”

Lamar Jackson‘s performance 26:32

  • Lamar Jackson had a high level of inconsistency.
  • Despite this, he finished as the fourth-best quarterback in fantasy.
  • 76% of his games were good or great.

“I’m going to talk about Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson finished the season as the quarterback three. And when I was doing this, you know, we do this every day. Every year and we look at the truth of these quarterbacks, I couldn’t wait to see how bad Lamar Jackson was and the truth score because he was very inconsistent. He had a lot of games that let you down. And in the actual score that we do every single year on the season, he was the fourth best quarterback in fantasy.”

Consistency of Josh Allen 27:25

  • Josh Allen was the most consistent quarterback.
  • He finished the season as the top quarterback.
  • His rushing ability contributed to his consistent performance.

“I mean, when you have an offensive coordinator fired mid season, you don’t expect that it was a great offensive output. But Josh Allen, the truth about the quarterbacks here is that these mobile rushing quarterbacks, if they play the whole season are so valuable. Why? Because Josh Allen had 15 rushing touchdowns and that is a baseline that is unfair to other guys.”

Josh Allen, 15 touchdowns. Jalen hurts 15 touchdowns on the ground, both of them.”

Josh Allen‘s Performance 30:00

  • Josh Allen had his lowest passing yards per game since 2019, but he ranked number one in air yards and number one in 20 plus yard attempts.
  • Despite having fewer passing touchdowns, Allen’s performance suggests that he could have performed even better.

“It was actually his lowest passing yards per game since 2019 at right around 253 yards per game, but he was number one in air yards, number one in 20 plus yard attempts. So had sub 30 touchdowns. So had had some of those, you know, attempts hit more often than it could have been even better.”

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Josh Allen‘s Value in Fantasy Drafts 30:22

  • As of January, it seems likely that Josh Allen will be a top pick in fantasy drafts, potentially going in the second round.
  • Despite concerns about his running style, Allen has proven himself as a valuable and consistent fantasy quarterback.

“I, it, at this point in January, it feels really easy to say Allen will be locked in as the number one guy where he goes in the drafts, whether you’re willing to make the pick because like with all this information, we could end up with Josh Allen just going like second round, back of the second round, early third round. So that’ll be, I mean, the home’s in the second round. So Allen probably goes in the second. You asked me at the top of the show, like that, what did I learn that changed how I look going forward? And it’s that Josh Allen is worth it. He was worth it two years in a row. And so eventually he’ll, you know, these, these mobile quarterbacks we saw it with Cam Newton, these big body mobile quarterbacks, they will fall off earlier. They’re not going to play till 40 doing the same running style, but it hasn’t happened yet. And I’m going to be fine taking Josh Allen next year. I hated that narrative in the off season. I was opposed to it from the first mention, the idea that Josh Allen, that he would run less. It just didn’t make any sense to, I understand the eventuality, but I thought that that was something that had no chance of happening.”

Jalen Hurts‘ Performance 36:43

  • Jalen Hurts had two number one finishes as the quarterback of the week.
  • However, he busted 38% of the time during the season.
  • This is consistent with the performance of Lamar Jackson, who also had two number one finishes but had a similar bust rate.

“Jalen had two and then Lamar Jackson had two.”

Lamar Jackson‘s Performance 37:02

  • Lamar Jackson had a streak of poor performances in weeks eight through 12, where he ranked low as the quarterback.
  • He had a high bust rate of 38% throughout the season.
  • However, he still ended up as the number three fantasy quarterback this year.

“Ultimately he ends up at number three.”

Comparing Quarterbacks’ Bust Rates 38:27

  • All the top 10 finishing quarterbacks this year had high bust rates, with none of them below 30%.
  • Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts were the only ones with a sub 20% bust rate.
  • Joe Flacco had a 100% bust rate.

“The only two guys that didn’t that had a sublike 20% bust rate, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, that’s it.”

The Rise of Dak Prescott 39:53

  • Dak Prescott had a slow start to the season, ranking as the 15th quarterback in the first half.
  • However, he had a tremendous turnaround in the second half, becoming the sixth-ranked quarterback.
  • He became one of the biggest stories in fantasy football this season.

“Dak is like the fantasy MVP this year for fantasy football.”

The Value of Dak Prescott 42:03

  • Dak Prescott‘s performance improved significantly from week six onwards, placing him as the second-ranked quarterback, just behind Josh Allen.
  • Despite his slow start, he had an impressive second half of the season, making him a potential value in next year’s drafts.
  • However, there are questions about whether he can maintain his excellent performance going forward.

“If you take out those first five weeks from week six on our truth metric, he would have been the number two.”

Jordan Love‘s Surprising Consistency 42:54

  • Jordan Love had a consistent performance, ranking as the eighth quarterback in both the first and second halves of the season.
  • He had a similar performance trajectory to Dak Prescott.
  • From week 10 onwards, Love was the third-ranked quarterback, outperforming expectations.

“12% great game. So he didn’t have a lot of those weak winning performances, but 47% good, 24% bust.”

“I mean, it’s crazy we’re talking about it. It’s crazy, but from week 10 on, so almost the entire second half of the year, you had Dak Prescott as the quarterback one, Josh Allen as the quarterback two, and then it was, it was Jordan Love. I mean, he was super good.”

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The Brock Purdy experience and moving forward 47:19

  • Brock Perti had a 14th round consistency rank of six, making him a good option if committed to. 47:14
  • He was good 50% of the time, great 19% of the time, and a bust 31% of the time. 47:19
  • Perti didn’t have all his weapons throughout the year, but when he did, things were very good. 47:35
  • Perti was considered an MVP candidate at one point in the season. 47:43
  • Although he was removed from the competition in Week 16 by the Ravens, he had a successful year overall. 47:45

“Brock Perti had a 14th round consistency rank of six, making him a good option if committed to. He was good 50% of the time, great 19% of the time, and a bust 31% of the time. Perti didn’t have all his weapons throughout the year, but when he did, things were very good. Although he was removed from the competition in Week 16 by the Ravens, he had a successful year overall.”

Patrick Mahomes‘ performance 49:56

  • Patrick Mahomes dominated with almost 24 fantasy points per game.
  • He had 2.8 passing touchdowns per game.

“Dominated almost 24 fantasy points game, 2.8 passing touchdowns.”

Impact of offensive success on the Kansas City Chiefs 50:01

  • When the Chiefs’ offense was performing well, it looked smooth and impressive.
  • Opponents were sometimes blown out, leading to Patrick Mahomes giving up snaps to Sam Darnold at the end of the game.
  • The Chiefs had a full allotment of weapons, resulting in a high average points per game.

“When they have it going on offense, it looks really smooth…Purdy’s given up snaps to Darnold at the end of the game because they’ve blown out their opponents…Averaging insane points per game.”

Travis Kelce‘s performance 50:52

  • Travis Kelsey started the season very well and seemed like a worthy first-round pick.
  • However, he performed poorly in the second half of the season.
  • There may be a correlation between Kelsey’s performance and Patrick Mahomes‘ decline.
  • If Kelsey has reached a stage of his career where he is no longer dominant, it may affect Mahomes’ fantasy performance.

“Travis Kelsey was very good in the beginning of this season…by the end of the season, was a very poor pick…If Kelsey has hit that drop off, not to being a bad player, he’s still valuable…But it’s very different between the first half and the second half of the year for (Mahomes).”

Potential improvement for the Chiefs’ offense 51:42

  • There is confidence that the Chiefs will address the offensive issues.
  • They had success two years ago and will likely try to replicate it this year.

“I feel pretty confident that they’re going to address it this year…They thought we can just re-roll this, we’ll do it again.”

Evaluation of preceding quarterbacks 53:21

  • Patrick Mahomes had a disappointing performance in the second half of the season, being the quarterback 18 in points per game.
  • Comparatively, Jared Goff was consistent but not outstanding, and Baker Mayfield was part of the final four quarterbacks in the AFC.

“No, was drafted first…No, I know you can…He was behind Jared Goff through that stretch as well.” “Jared Goff was…fine…he was 10th in consistency, seventh in the first half, 14th in the second half.” “Baker Mayfield, which by the way, like the final four quarterbacks of the NFC right now are Jordan Love, Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, and Brock Purdy.”

Variability in Jared Goff‘s performance 54:12

  • Jared Goff‘s performance varies depending on the defense he faces.
  • He performs significantly better at home and against weak passing defenses.

“Versus defenses…bottom 16, passing defenses, 23, nearly 24 points a game…At home, 24 points a game.”

Mixed results with starting Jared Goff 55:07

  • It was a 50-50 shot whether starting Jared Goff would be successful, if not factoring in the home/road splits and the opposing defense.
  • Jared Goff can be valuable in certain matchups, but it’s not advisable to plug and play him without considering these variables.

“I know a lot of you opted into Jared Goff on different weeks…It’s a 50-50 shot when you’re throwing him out there…the math was 50-50 on whether Jared Goff would show up for you.”

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Uncertain future for Jared Goff 56:03

  • There is a possibility that Jared Goff may continue to perform in a similar manner.
  • Jameson Williams‘ development and La Porta’s impact on the offense could contribute to Goff’s positive performance.

“I lean the positive side with the development of Jameson Williams in that offense, the electricity he brings to it…La Porta is such a key cog.”

Baker Mayfield‘s Fantasy Performance 57:17

  • Baker Mayfield was surprising as a top 10 fantasy quarterback.
  • However, he lacked consistency, ranking 21st.
  • He had a terrible fantasy performance and was not a viable streaming option.
  • Mayfield’s low interception count and passing yards were his only saving grace.

“I mean, there was one… The truth is we should not be talking about Baker Mayfield.”

Tua Tagovailoa‘s Ups and Downs 58:11

  • Tua’s performance was inconsistent throughout the season.
  • He started strong as the QB4 but dropped to the QB30 in the second half.
  • He had a 19th ranking in consistency.
  • Tua had a 12% great games, 24% good games, and 53% bust games.

“And he got you. That’s the problem.”

Concerns and Disappointments with Tua 58:55

  • Tua’s performance heavily relied on specific weapons like Tyreek and Waddle.
  • When these weapons were not available or not performing, Tua struggled.
  • The disappointment in Tua’s performance was evident during the game against Kansas City.
  • The offensive line injuries also negatively impacted Tua’s performance.

“And I was just so disappointed in the level of grit that they brought to the table… I wanted to see them succeed.”

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Comparing Tua and Brock Purdy in Fantasy Drafts 01:00:44

  • There was a discussion about who would go higher in fantasy drafts between Tua and Brock Purdy.
  • Purdy was favored due to Tua’s inconsistent performance and painful moments.
  • The general public might still lean towards drafting Tua due to his reputation.

“I think it’s probably Tua… I’m not saying for us, I’m saying the general public.”

“That could be stupid because obviously… there are selective weeks where you’d want to play him.”

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