Starts of the Week + Week 9 Breakdown, Snow Model

Summary:

Snow in Vermont 00:38

• Snow in Vermont
• Pictures and notes about the weather patterns in Vermont
• Derrick Henry goes bananas when it snows in Vermont

“The Yeti? There is snow in Vermont. I love this time of year because we receive lots of pictures and notes on Twitter about the weather patterns in Vermont…what we have found out through the scientific method is that when it snows in Vermont, Derek Henry goes bananas.”

Derrick Henry snow model 01:57

• Derek Henry snow model
• Snow in Vermont leads to a great game for Derek Henry

“Yeah, welcome in everybody. That is, I mean, that’s pretty much our method right there…It’s the Derek Henry snow model.”

League of Record waivers and facing Will Levis 03:08

• League of Record waivers just ran
• Facing Will Lovis this week
• Opponent signed Will Lovis

“We can move to football and to the game we were just talking about a second ago and to our personal League of Record waivers that just ran…Because not just signed. He was signed by my opponent this week to play against.”

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News and notes 04:23

• Injury updates and practice reports
• Josh Allen expected to play
• Damian Pierce and Darren Waller dealing with injuries
• Possible start for PJ Walker

“News and notes from around the league presented by USAA Insurance…Josh Allen, good to go…Damian Pierce did not practice…Darren Waller says it may be a little bit before he’s able to return from the hamstring…PJ Walker will start if Watson cannot play.”

Cardinals and other injury updates 06:48

• Kyler Murray potentially playing this week
• Cardinals being secretive about the starter
• James Conner could be back in week 10

“Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon said, Kyler Murray‘s fired up to potentially play this week…He said he was not gonna reveal the starter for this week…And James Conner, ready to go and excited to get back out on the field, could be back in week 10.”

Strategy for looking ahead 08:38

• Looking forward at the schedule
• Trade deadlines and bye week schedule
• Considering matchups for future weeks

“Yeah, this is also, as a good reminder, when you’re looking forward at the schedule…We’re coming up against traded deadlines in a lot of leagues…You also want to look forward at your buy week schedule…Look forward at your matchups.”

Dolphins vs Chiefs 09:29

• Miami (6-2) is taking on the Kansas City Chiefs (6-2).
• The Draft King Sportsbook line favors Kansas City by 1 1/2 points.
• The over-under for the game is set at 50 1/2.
• The game will take place in Frankfurt, Germany.

“Miami 6-2, taking on the 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs.”

Miami’s Offense vs Kansas City’s Defense 10:59

• Miami’s offense has been performing well, ranking number one in points per game and yards per play.
• Kansas City’s defense is also strong, ranking number two in points per game allowed and number three in yards per play allowed.
• Miami has not been able to pass difficult tests so far this season and has yet to beat a team with a winning record.
• However, this game will be a real test for Miami on American soil.

“Miami’s offense has been great, number one in points per game, yards per play. Kansas City’s defense, number two in points per game allowed, number three in yards per play allowed.”

Start-Sit Decisions 12:07

• Despite the tough matchup, Miami’s top players like Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle should still be started.
• Tua Tagovailoa has been performing well and can be considered a must-start player this week.
• Raheem Mostert will be back for the Dolphins, but it’s a tough matchup and other running backs like Jeff Wilson and Salvon Ahmed are not reliable options.
• For the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Isaiah Pacheco should all be started.
• Receptions have been a part of Pacheco’s game, but the matchup against Miami is not great.

“We’re starting all of our dolphins.”

Jordan Addison‘s role and expectations 17:03

• Addison has been impressive, especially in his rapport with Cousins.
• He is a player that can be started, but expectations should be adjusted.
• Consider him as a flex option with around 6-9 fantasy points in half PPR leagues.

“Addison is not a player that you have to say, I can’t start him… you’re expecting probably, you know, six to nine fantasy points and half PPR.”

Concerns with backup quarterbacks 17:43

• Backup quarterbacks limit the ceiling for players like Addison.
• The issue lies in the lack of potential for a great fantasy game.

“There is almost no ceiling when you’ve got these backup quarterbacks in there… You’re not going to have a great fantasy game.”

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Impact of Minnesota’s game plan and defense 18:12

• Minnesota’s game plan may change due to their implied low point total.
• The Minnesota Vikings defense has improved.
• The pace of play for Atlanta is slow, indicating a potentially challenging matchup for pass catchers.

“To speak to the Minnesota Vikings defense has been much improved… it’s worth realizing that the pace of play of Atlanta is very slow.”

Uncertainty around Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Pitts 19:29

• Taylor Heineke is not expected to significantly improve the Falcons’ passing game.
• Kyle Pitts has valuable downfield targets but has received many uncatchable passes.
• While Pitts’ role as a downfield wide receiver offers optimism, Heineke’s limitations are worth acknowledging.

“On one hand, you could say, hey, this is a really important thing for Kyle Pitts… So, there’s a lot of optimism here, but I don’t want to make Taylor Heineke something he isn’t.”

Concerns and injury status of Drake London 20:51

• Drake London‘s groin injury and missed practice raises concerns.
• If he plays, he could be a decent start, but reaggravation is a worry.

“Man, the more we talk about this game, the less I want to watch it… I will say if Drake London plays, he should be a good start.”

Arizona Cardinals vs Cleveland Browns matchup 21:31

• Uncertainty around the Cardinals’ quarterback situation affects game lines.
• The Cardinals’ offensive output is expected to be limited.
• Rain and wind may further impact the passing game.
• Expect more ground work and consider players like Kareem Hunt as solid options.

“Usually when you don’t know who the quarterback is going to be, the game lines are off… I think you’re going to have a lot of ground work in this one.”

Evaluating the Cardinals’ wide receivers 23:32

• The situation with McBride and the Cardinals’ wide receivers is unclear.
• The rapport with PJ Walker makes David Njoku a more appealing option.

“So McBride and the wide outs for the Cardinals… if Walker is the quarterback, I’m more willing to play him because the targets have, the target share has been great from Walker.”

D’Onta Foreman‘s Usage and Injury Concerns 23:58

• D’Onta Foreman had 20 carries and was initially getting workhorse usage.
• However, in the second half, Keonti Ingram took over and Foreman didn’t touch the ball until late in the third quarter.
• Foreman played most of the fourth quarter snaps.
• There is a chance that Foreman is injured.

“I think there is a chance that D. Markado is actually, is actually hurt.”

Evaluating Trey McBride and the Tight End Position 24:35

• Trey McBride had 39% of the targets last week, showing absolute domination for fantasy football.
• While the matchup is not great and McBride is a late round rookie making his first start, there is potential for him moving forward.
• Jake Ferguson is a better option to play this week.

“I, you know, I think the next two weeks you’re going to have Kyler Murray and no Zach Hertz. And you’re going to have an opportunity for Trey McBride to be a real breakout star.”

The Rams vs Packers Matchup Preview 26:30

• The Los Angeles Rams (3-5) are facing the Green Bay Packers (2-5).
• The Rams have lost three of their last four games and Matthew Stafford is not practicing.
• It is likely that Brett Rypien will start at quarterback for the Rams.
• The Packers have lost four games in a row and struggle to reach their implied point totals.

“It feels like going through, this isn’t like a, a walk through a meadow. This is like a, um, spooky forest. Or a swamp.”

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Quarterback Injuries and Fantasy Football 28:15

• Several quarterbacks are dealing with injuries, including Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, and many others.
• This week is particularly challenging for starting quarterbacks due to the number of injuries and bye weeks.
• The quarterback situation for the Rams is uncertain, and Brett Rypien might start.
• This impacts the value of Rams players, such as Darryl Henderson.

“It just feels a little bit dire there.”

Evaluating Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman 28:56

• Darryl Henderson has not been running well and is sharing time with Royce Freeman.
• Henderson has a lower yards per carry average while Freeman has statistically performed better.
• Henderson has been more involved in the passing game, but with the uncertain quarterback situation, it’s unclear how much the running backs will be utilized.

“My confidence level on him [Henderson] is not very high with Brett Rippen at quarterback.”

Assessing Christian Watson‘s Performance 31:32

• The speaker discusses Christian Watson‘s recent performances, highlighting his touchdown production.
• They note that his yardage has been lacking but emphasize his potential for a big play.
• The speaker believes Watson is worth considering for fantasy lineups due to his snap percentage and target volume.

“He’s the type of player that you just need one big touch from a guy.”

Comparing Hollywood vs. Christian Watson 33:08

• The speaker debates between Hollywood (Marquise Brown) and Christian Watson for a lineup decision.
• They ultimately lean towards starting Watson due to the tough matchup for Hollywood against the Browns.
• The speaker asks if the audience is starting Hollywood in their league.

“I think I go Christian Watson just because of how good the Browns are.”

Concerns about Aaron Jones‘ Performance 33:56

• The speaker expresses concerns regarding Aaron Jones‘ recent performances.
• They mention his increased snap percentage but note that his opportunities and production have not improved significantly.
• The speaker explains that Jones is sharing playing time with AJ Dillon and may not be fully healthy.
• Despite the concerns, the speaker still suggests playing Jones over other options if available.

“He’s going to be in a time share…you are waiting, it doesn’t look good right now.”

Evaluating Mac Jones and the Washington Defense 35:04

• The speaker discusses Mac Jones‘ potential in the upcoming game against Washington.
• They highlight Washington’s struggles against fantasy quarterbacks and the absence of Chase Young and Montez Sweat.
• The lack of elite weapons for Jones is mentioned as a possible limitation.
• The speaker also mentions Demario Douglas as a player of interest due to favorable circumstances.

“Over the last six weeks, Washington dead last against fantasy quarterbacks… Snaps should be the highest this week that they’ve been on the entire season.”

Contemplating Rhamondre Stevenson and Zeke as Start Options 37:52

• The speaker discusses the potential of Ramon Dre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott in their respective matchups.
• They believe both players have a chance for solid performances.
• The speaker notes that New England being ahead and the strong statistical performance of their defense could benefit the running backs.
• Despite the presence of other weapons on the Washington offense, the speaker still views Ramon Dre and Zeke as viable options.

“I think you could start either one of them.”

Manders rushing defense and defensive line changes 38:26

• Despite the Manders rushing defense being middle of the pack, two of their defensive lines have been let go. The impact of these changes is yet to be seen.

“And even though the the Manders rushing defense has been middle of the pack, they got rid of two of their defensive lines.”

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Evaluating Jahan Dotson and DeMario Douglas 38:35

• There is uncertainty regarding whether to chase the performances of Johan Dotson in the last two weeks. It is highlighted as a significant start/sit decision for fantasy football managers. Dotson and DeMario Douglas, who were recently picked up from waivers, are compared as potential starters.

“Are you chasing the last two weeks of Johan Dotson? I think this is going to be one of your bigger start sit decisions. Maybe even people deciding between two guys they picked up this, this past waivers, which would be Dotson and DeMario Douglas.”

• Both Dotson and Douglas have the potential to be starting options, but the preference is slightly towards starting DeMario Douglas. The speaker, having both players on their roster, would personally choose to start Douglas over Dotson.

“Yeah. I think you could start either. I would rather start DeMario Douglas. If I had both on my roster, pop would be in my lineup.”

Uncertainty around Curtis Samuel‘s availability 39:27

• It is uncertain whether Curtis Samuel will be out for the upcoming game. If Samuel is confirmed to be out, it is suggested to prioritize starting Johan Dotson due to his proven skills and on-field presence.

“Assuming that Curtis Samuel will be out, which I don’t know if we have that information just yet. But if he is out, I would, I’m going to play Dotson. I know that Dotson’s good.”

Jamison Crowder as a productive option 40:13

• The speaker suggests that James and Crater might have a productive game if Curtis Samuel is ruled out. The reason behind this prediction is the offensive line situation and the need to rely on shorter passing options due to a struggling offensive line.

“I don’t think I’d be shocked if James and Crater had a productive game without Curtis Samuel.”

Logan Thomas and other players in the matchup 40:41

• Logan Thomas is highlighted as a player to consider due to his potential for receiving over seven targets in the game. Other players mentioned include Brian Robinson and Najee, with the preference leaning towards Robinson due to the matchup.

“I really like Logan Thomas for all the reasons you just laid out. You expect him to have seven plus targets in this matchup.” “Brian Robinson. Yeah. You’ve got to discuss Brian Robinson. It’s not a, it’s a middle of the road matchup for the Manders and Robinson or Henderson. Henderson. I’m going to take the matchup. Robinson or Najee tonight. Robinson.”

Evaluating Michael Thomas‘s performance 44:02

• Michael Thomas is discussed in terms of consistency and potentially limited upside. While he has not scored fewer than seven fantasy points, there is concern that he may not have a high ceiling in fantasy football. The preference is given to players like DeMario Douglas for their upside potential.

“He hasn’t scored fewer than seven fantasy points all year. So he hasn’t scored more than 11 fantasy points. He has, he’s got his window. And if you want right around 10 points, right around nine points. This is the restaurant that has the meal that’s just like, it’s the one you get and it’s probably okay.”

Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints matchup 41:53

• The podcast transitions from discussing the previous game to previewing the Chicago Bears vs New Orleans Saints matchup. It is noted that the Bears have a 2-6 record while the Saints have a 4-4 record. The matchup is described as potentially exciting, and the Saints are favored by 8.5 points.

“Chicago Bears two and six take on the four and four New Orleans Saints. Somehow it feels like every matchup is between losing teams, which isn’t, it shouldn’t be possible. No.”

Derek Carr‘s performances and offensive weapons 42:34

• Derek Carr‘s recent top 15 performances are mentioned, highlighting his success due to the offensive weapons available to him, such as Camara, O’Lave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shahid. It is pointed out that this favors the New Orleans Saints‘ chances in the matchup against the Chicago Bears.

“Derek Carr somehow, somewhat four consecutive top 15 games. He’s an angry car now. Which only Jalen Hurts, Josh Yellen, and Carr have done. And it makes sense because if you really think about what he has at his disposal, Camara. Over the last four weeks.”

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Targeting the Chicago Bears defense 43:21

• The Chicago Bears defense is viewed as a target for fantasy football managers due to their vulnerabilities. It is suggested that players like Camara, O’Lave, and Thomas should be started against them.

“Against the Chicago Bears, you pretty much want to target them. You want to put those players in. So obviously Camara’s in obviously O’Lave’s in. I think Michael Thomas should be fine.”

“They’re not able to run the ball very well. Everything to Camara has been a pass. And so, that goes to Derek Carr‘s stats. Now against the Chicago Bears, you pretty much want to target them. You want to put those players in. So obviously Camara’s in obviously O’Lave’s in. I think Michael Thomas should be fine.”

Introduction 45:35

• Making a stretched analogy requires deep knowledge of the.
• Some people in the room are unfamiliar with the topic being discussed.
• The speaker acknowledges that everyone is a bit lost.

“If you want to make a real stretched like kind of analogy, you really got to know what you’re talking about. Yeah, I was trying to throw it out because we have a lot of people in this room. Lots of people in this room that don’t know what you’re talking about. Well that’s because we are all real lost.”

Explaining the analogy 45:51

• The speaker seeks help from Twitter to clarify their analogy.
• They describe a type of building with a low ceiling.
• The analogy is that the ceiling being low signifies a limitation.

“Twitter will help me out here. Sounds pretty cool. There’s a type of building that’s not a basement. But it’s got a low ceiling Is that what you’re saying? Yep. So you’re just saying that the ceiling is low.”

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Michael Thomas and alternatives 46:20

• The speaker is considering starting Michael in their match.
• They ask for opinions on whether to start Thomas or another player.
• The player’s alternative options are discussed, including Hollywood and Toon.
• The speaker expresses favor towards starting Thomas.

“Asking for a friend. Yeah, let’s move along. Asking for a friend. I am favored pretty heavily. If Will Lovis goes out and puts up a stinker tonight, do you think I should start Michael Thomas in my match? Well it depends on your alternative. Who’s your alternative? Oh man. Hollywood? I would start him over Hollywood with Toon. Yeah, that would be one of them. Because there’s a chance Hollywood catches zero passes with Toon. Puka. Yeah, I’d play Michael Thomas.”

Evaluating Michael Thomas 46:45

• The speaker discusses Michael Thomas‘s performance and effectiveness.
• They mention his past reliance on Drew Brees.
• It is implied that Thomas may have lost some of his previous abilities.

“Michael Thomas is automatically putting seven points in your lineup. Josh Downs. No, I’d play Downs. Yeah, Downs is more explosive. Michael Thomas has lost all of that. And he may never have had it. Like Michael Thomas was just- He had to have more than he has now. He had to. He was a- That’s true, but he never really made his money on explosive plays.”

Rashid Shaheed alternative 48:15

• The speaker suggests Rashid Shahid as an alternative for underdogs.
• They highlight Shahid’s potential for high yardage and touchdowns.
• They contrast him with Michael Thomas.

“Rashid Shahid is the inverse play of Michael Thomas. If you are a massive underdog, you are not playing Michael Thomas. You’re playing Rashid Shahid because he could have 174 yards and two touchdowns.”

DJ Moore and Amari Cooper 49:42

• The speaker compares DJ Moore and Amari Cooper for the rest of the season.
• They initially lean towards Cooper but then change their opinion to Moore.
• They mention the potential improvement of Hollywood when Kyler comes back.

“DJ Moore or Amari Cooper, rest of the season? Cooper. Man. Yeah, I changed. DJ Moore. DJ Moore or Hollywood, rest of the season. Stop it. Stop making good questions that are hard. Yeah, I think Hollywood’s going to be good when Kyler comes back.”

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Chicago Bears running backs 48:39

• The speaker suggests benching all the running backs in the Chicago Bears.
• They mention the firing of the running back coach.
• The running back situation is highlighted as messy for the struggling team.

“I’m going to hand you this beautiful platter to talk about. So yeah, I mean, it is easy. It is you bench all running backs. Yep. If you got the Deontiform in weak, cherish it, hold it in high esteem. It’s done. It is a mess for a bad team. 32%. They just fired the running back coach.”

Predicting the Ravens vs Seahawks game 50:55

• The speaker discusses the upcoming Ravens vs Seahawks game.
• They mention the Ravens’ strong defense and home advantage.
• They express reluctance but ultimately pick the Ravens to win.

“The Baltimore defense is really, really good. And they’re home, they control the game. The offense for Seattle has been weird on some levels. I mean, they are, they’re fighting and they added, you know, a huge piece to their, to their defense. Leonard Williams. And so, they’ll come aboard their run game will be better. Much better. Run stopping game. Yeah. And so, you know, is this a complicated game?”

Zay Flowers and his potential 52:20

• Z Flowers is not considered an auto start.
• He is more like purple Wondale and closer to that than being a superstar.

“I do not consider him [Zay Flowers] an auto start at all.” 52:24

Ravens’ utilization of Zay Flowers 52:42

• The Ravens are utilizing Zay Flowers in a curious fashion.
• The targets for Bateman or Beckham are not there.

“They are utilizing Zay Flowers in a very curious fashion. I mean, and you don’t play Bateman or Beckham because the targets aren’t there.” 52:43

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Gus Edwards as a fantasy start 53:19

• Gus Edwards is playing around 50% of snaps and had 21 opportunities last week.
• Playing at home, Gus Edwards is a favorable fantasy start against a middle-of-the-pack run defense.

“Are you going to stay in the flames with Gus Edwards last week? Obviously was an advantage over the Arizona Cardinals. This week you’ve got what on the season has been a middle of the pack run defense.” 53:17

Kenneth Walker‘s disappointing game 53:29

• Kenneth Walker had a disappointing game last week.
• However, it’s hard to find someone to play over Kenneth Walker, even if he is a little hurt.

“It was our first disappointing game. Well, follow him on the injury report. Although it’s hard to find someone you would play over Kenneth Walker, even if you’re a little worried about each hurt.” 53:29

Considerations for Zach Charbonnet 53:44

• Charbonnet is not in flex consideration this week against a difficult defense.
• There are better options at flex at wide receiver than having Charbonnet in the lineup.

“I don’t think so. I think there are better options at flex at wide receiver than having Charbonnet in there.” 53:50

Mixed opinions on Laviska Shenault Jr. 54:07

• Laviska Shenault Jr. has two touchdowns in two weeks.
• Despite this, there are concerns about his production and it feels a bit risky to start him against the Baltimore Ravens.

“JSN, two touchdowns in two weeks, which… 16 targets over the last three games… Just a little bit, a little bit scary in this one. I think I’m trying to bench him. I am not starting him against the Baltimore Ravens.” 54:10

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Geno Smith as a fantasy sit 54:33

• It is recommended to sit Geno Smith this week.
• He has had three interceptions and two turnovers on downs inside the red zone in the last three games.

“And Geno Smith, we’re going to sit him down. Yeah… Geno, in the last three games, three interceptions, two turnovers on downs inside the red zone.” 54:49

Cautious approach towards DK Metcalf 55:16

• DK Metcalf had 14 targets last week, but he hasn’t had consistent production throughout the season.
• It is suggested to bench him this week against the Baltimore Ravens‘ strong defense.

“Are you playing DK, Mac? Yeah, I’m playing Mac over, you know, over the Rashi… No, I’m playing Mac. Obviously last week didn’t turn out well, but 14 targets. He’s DK Mac. He’s practicing in full now. He is DK Mac.” 55:31

“It feels a little bit like Olavi. Like both of those players are probably going to have… And the, I mean, the first month he was, it was still over 10 points a game for in a half point scoring format, but that’s, man, that’s, that’s, that stinks.” 55:49

Week 9 Running Back Start of the Week: Kareem Hunt 01:00:25

• Hunt has been performing well, ranking as the RB10, RB11, and RB16 in the past three weeks.
• The Arizona Cardinals have struggled in defending against running backs, allowing the 28th highest fantasy points.

“Kareem Hunt should be an easy play.”

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Week 9 Running Back Start: Chuba Hubbard 01:01:08

• Hubbard played 67% of the snaps last week while Miles Sanders only had two touches.
• The matchup against the Colts is favorable, as they have allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL.
• Hubbard has the highest Rush Success Rate among running backs since week three.

“Chuba has been playing very, very well this year.”

Week 9 Wide Receiver Start of the Week: T. Higgins 01:01:40

• T. Higgins is coming off a bye week and showed some improvement against the San Francisco 49ers.
• The Buffalo Bills have struggled in defending against wide receivers, allowing the 29th highest fantasy points in adjusted schedule.

“T. Higgins should be a must-start.”

Week 9 Wide Receiver Start: Rashod Bateman 01:02:06

• Bateman has been getting more playing time, with 60% of snaps and a target rate of 26%.
• The Miami Dolphins game has a high over/under, which could lead to a breakout game for Bateman.
• The Dolphins have struggled against wide receivers, ranking 29th in adjusted schedule.

“Don’t miss him in a game against the Dolphins.”

Week 9 Tight End Start of the Week: Taysom Hill 01:03:36

• Hill has been delivering consistent performances, both in the running and passing game.
• When Hill has had seven or more carries, the Saints have an impressive 17-1 record.

“Taysom keeps doing Taysom things.”

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Week 9 Tight End Start: Dalton Kincaid 01:04:14

• With Dawson Knox injured, Kincaid saw an increase in playing time at 84% of snaps.
• The Cincinnati Bengals offer the best matchup for tight ends.

“Kincaid is a smash play this week.”

Week 9 Tight End Start: Logan Thomas 01:05:32

• Thomas has had a solid target share of 17% over the last month.
• The New England Patriots have been favorable for tight end matchups.

“I think this is a bounce-back week for Nico.”

“With Logan Thomas, it is not a sexy pick, but he’s had a 17% target share over the last month and the Pats, well, they’ve actually been the fourth best matchup for tight ends over that time period.”