Old, Bland, and Undervalued Players + Hot Dog Decisions

Summary:

Old, Bland, and Undervalued Players in Fantasy Football 03:53

• Some older players in fantasy football tend to be undervalued due to their age, despite still having potential for productive seasons.
• The host shares about having older players on his dynasty team, mentioning how they keep getting contract extensions, indicating their continued value.
• The discussion revolves around evaluating older players in fantasy football and considering if they still have gas left in the tank.

“Today we’ll talk about some old players that get devalued due to age and whether you think that they have some seasons left.”

Avoiding Back-to-Back Picks for Onesie Positions 06:50

• In standard scoring leagues, it’s advisable to avoid selecting quarterbacks and tight ends back-to-back early in drafts.
• The advice stems from the principle of supply and demand, as teams typically start more running backs and wide receivers weekly compared to quarterbacks and tight ends in most league formats.

“You start one of them and every single week you’re starting at least two wide receivers, at least two running backs.”

Premium Positions Dilemma 08:02

• Investing heavily in premium positions like tight end and quarterback in the early rounds of fantasy football drafts can lead to sacrificing crucial running back and wide receiver depth.
• Opting for a top-tier tight end or quarterback early can result in entering the mid-rounds with a shortage of essential running back and wide receiver assets, which are vital for depth, bi-week replacements, and handling injuries effectively.
• The risk of picking a premium player early is that if they get injured, the drop-off to find a replacement can be significant due to the limited depth at those positions.
• Balancing the allure of valuable players like Mahomes or Kelsey early on with maintaining a robust roster across all positions remains a strategic challenge in draft decision-making.

“If you take your third and fourth pick and you go quarterback and tight end, you’re going to need to have a great… running back or wide receiver.”

Drafting Strategy Considerations 09:34

• The changing Average Draft Positions (ADPs) of players like Mahomes and Kelsey offer potential value propositions to fantasy owners.
• Selecting players like Kelsey and Mahomes in the third and fourth rounds respectively could present both a bargain and the opportunity to form a strategic stack for fantasy lineups.
• The risk-reward dynamics of drafting premium players early versus waiting on them need to be carefully analyzed based on individual draft situations and the available talent pool in each round.

“You can take those hits a little easier… you can take those hits a little easier.”

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Impact of Risk Aversion on Draft Decisions 10:35

• Understanding the risk associated with investing significantly in premium positions and potentially limiting depth in other crucial areas of the roster is key to making informed draft choices.
• Drafting decisions should not only be influenced by individual player values but also take into account the broader context of roster construction and balancing risk across all positions.
• Being aware of the opportunity cost of prioritizing premium players early on compared to building a well-rounded team becomes essential during fantasy football drafts.

“It’s just a risk situation… it’s just a risk situation.”

Drafting Garrett Wilson 15:14

• Drafting Garrett Wilson is considered risky due to the uncertainty surrounding Aaron Rodgers, although Tyrod Taylor could be a better option compared to last year.
• The uncertainty lies in Wilson’s value depending heavily on Rodgers’ situation and the team’s quarterback choices.
• Tyrod Taylor‘s presence provides a sense of security, but concerns about his injury history and the team’s draft selections are valid.

Tyrod is such a weird player because he’s had good games. He’s had games where he likes to.

Injury Concerns for Jonathan Brooks 16:19

• Jonathan Brooks, a rookie running back for the Panthers, may not be ready for the start of training camp due to recovering from an ACL injury.
• The team is focused on ensuring his recovery is managed appropriately with long-term potential in mind rather than rushing him back onto the field.
• Brooks’ situation is distinguished from regular injury dips in ADP due to the unique circumstances of his collegiate injury recovery.

I think it is a unique and different case than an injury dip because this isn’t the situation where you’ve got, you know, Saquon and he’s had this year or that year and now he’s injured and he’s dipped in ADP.

Outlook on Jonathan Brooks and Chuba Hubbard 17:47

• Jonathan Brooks is anticipated to gain significant volume in the latter part of the season as he recovers and establishes his role within the Panthers.
• Chuba Hubbard could serve as a viable option for the initial weeks, but there are doubts about him being the preferred primary ball carrier for Carolina.
• Preference may lean towards established starters like Devin Singletary to ensure a stable lineup during the initial weeks of the season.

From week 12 on, he was the running back nine averaging more points than Jameer Gibbs in that time span.

Coach’s Optimism for Derrick Henry 19:29

• Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is optimistic about Derek Henry’s ability to maintain his workload, citing his past impact and effectiveness against defenses.
• Henry’s exceptional performance and unique skill set make him a remarkable outlier in fantasy football, emphasizing his reliability and exceptional value even without heavy involvement in the passing game.

You know, Derek Henry was for four seasons, a mathematical fantasy football outlier where you go, I don’t draft early first round running backs that don’t catch the ball unless it’s Derek Henry, right?

Analysis of Old, Bland, and Undervalued Players 22:21

• The hosts discuss how players often go unnoticed when feeling average, highlighting the undervalued potential of older, established players in fantasy football.
• Older players like Mike Evans, tagged as boring, can still contribute significantly to fantasy teams.
• Despite perceptions, older players can deliver standout performances, as seen with the example of Cooper Kupp.
• The hosts emphasize the importance of reevaluating biases against seasoned players in fantasy drafts.

Last year, one of Andy’s, my guys, Mike Evans, fits the bill. Where it was like, you’re just used to him. You think his situation, he’s not going to have a career year and he didn’t necessarily have a career year. And yet it was awesome. Help people win fantasy championships.

Reassessing Player Value: Cooper Kupp‘s Case 24:27

• Cooper Kupp, although nearing 31, is considered undervalued in drafts despite injury concerns.
• Concerns revolve around Kupp’s decreased performance metrics and injury woes in recent seasons.
• The hosts contemplate whether Kupp’s prior success, coupled with potential improvements in team dynamics, could justify selecting him in fantasy drafts.

Cooper Cupp’s the first name I want to bring up. He’s going to be 31 in the season. He’s 30.9 years old right now. He’s being drafted as the wide receiver 22.

Evaluating Cooper Kupp‘s Draft Worthiness 25:57

• Despite injury concerns, the hosts express confidence in selecting Cooper Kupp, especially considering his potential within the Los Angeles Rams‘ offensive scheme led by Sean McVay.
• Kupp’s injuries and declining metrics are acknowledged, but his historical performance and goal-line presence are seen as indicators of continued fantasy relevance.
• The hosts compare Kupp’s draft value to other receivers like DeVonta Smith and DK Metcalf, highlighting the decision-making process for fantasy team selection.

Are you going to be targeting him? I am 100% fine getting Cooper Cupp in the late fourth. I expect Pukinacua to be the one for this team and Cooper Cupp to be the two.

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Elements Influencing Draft Decisions 26:59

• Factors like health, team dynamics, and performance potential are crucial considerations when deciding on drafting older players like Cooper Kupp.
• The hosts weigh the advantages of selecting Kupp over other younger receivers based on past performance, injury patterns, and expected team roles.
• Confidence in Kupp’s ability to deliver a top-tier fantasy performance despite age-related concerns is a key component in the draft decision-making process.

All the reports are, he looks so healthy and all that jazz. But they always do, right? Yeah, of course. So best shape of his life. I will take him here.

Analysis of Older Players’ Performance 29:56

• Older former star players like Cooper Kupp may lack consistency, showing flashes of brilliance sporadically rather than excelling every week.
• Examples like DeAndre Hopkins underscore how aging stars can deliver impressive performances inconsistently.
• Adam Thielen‘s remarkable run last year, with substantial targets resulting in high production, raises questions about his potential this year despite his advancing age.

It’s like Hopkins last year. You know, Hopkins had weeks where he’s the number two, four, eight, but it was few and far between.

Evaluating Adam Thielen‘s Potential 30:52

• Adam Thielen‘s standout performance last year, commanding a significant target share, highlights the impact of consistent targeting on a player’s success.
• Thielen’s age raises concerns about his ability to maintain his exceptional performance level.
• The addition of Deontay Johnson to the team may alter Thielen’s target share, impacting his fantasy value.

It showed that if you target him frequently, you get production.

Keenan Allen‘s Future Performance 35:30

• Keenan Allen‘s strong statistics and reliability make him an attractive fantasy option despite his advancing years.
• Changes in team dynamics and the emergence of new key players like DJ Moore could potentially impact Allen’s role and targets.
• Concerns exist about Allen’s possible role shift within the team, potentially affecting his fantasy output.

Keenan’s good now. He’s a special player.

Analysis of Keenan Allen‘s Potential 37:24

• Keenan Allen‘s upside mainly lies in his high reception volume rather than scoring touchdowns.
• Even with just 100 targets, a significant decrease from his past seasons, his performance would not match previous years.
• Projections suggest around 130 targets, positioning him as around the WR31.
• Comparing him to other receivers like T. Higgins, his value in the draft seems lower than expected.
• The discussion also touches on the performance comparison between Keenan Allen and DJ Moore within their respective teams.

“The ceiling for Keenan’s always been massive reception volume.”

Mike Evans‘s Value in Fantasy Football 39:47

• Excitement surrounds expectations for Mike Evans after a phenomenal performance last year.
• Despite being considered a first or second ballot Hall of Famer, his fantasy value is being debated.
• Factors influencing his evaluation include his consistent track record as a top receiver, potential impact of a new coordinator, and quarterback performance.
• The uncertainty lies in projecting his touchdown numbers for the upcoming season, impacting his draft position and fantasy value.

“His ADP on the My Guys episode last year was wide receiver 33 in the seventh round. It seemed insane to me at the time.”

Evaluating Mike Evans‘s Touchdown Possibilities 42:10

• The debate dives into the critical factor of touchdown receptions for Mike Evans.
• Forecasts indicate a range of numbers, with projections of about nine touchdowns being considered the upper limit.
• A comparison is drawn between the impact of Baker, the team’s new coordinator, and past performance.
• The discussion also delves into the potential implications of Mike Evans‘ touchdowns on his draft position and ranking, emphasizing the wager on Evans for the upcoming season.

“It’s a bet on Baker to some degrees. It was a bet on Baker last year. If you bet on Baker, you got paid out because Mike Evans was great.”

Mike Evans Analysis 44:40

• Mike Evans is considered “old, bland, and undervalued” in fantasy football drafts.
• Despite lacking excitement compared to younger players like Nico Collins, Evans’s consistency and rapport with his quarterback make him a solid pick.
• Target and touchdown statistics from previous seasons suggest Evans is a reliable fantasy asset.

There’s a blandness to taking Mike Evans in your draft where you don’t receive the kind of adrenaline rush of drafting Nico Collins… and yet you could just go win your league because of it.

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Brandin Cooks Evaluation 48:09

• Brandon Cooks is seen as an undervalued player in fantasy football drafts.
• Although he had a slow start last season, his performance improved in the second half, especially in touchdown receptions.
• Cooks’ potential lies in benefiting from Dak Prescott‘s passing game in an offense that emphasizes throwing the ball.

63 for 846 won’t get it done, but the touchdowns were there.

Impact of Offensive Strategy on Brandon Cooks’ Performance 49:56

• Game scripts, such as the Dallas Cowboys blowing out opponents early last season, affected Cooks’ involvement in the offense.
• Cooks was expected to have a more prominent role in game plans, given his talent and prior performance.
• The belief is that Cooks can benefit from a shift towards passing-focused strategies driven by Dak Prescott‘s performance.

But there was the cowboys were blowing everybody out at the beginning… Why didn’t they use Brandon Cooks to blow people out more at the beginning?

Undervalued Veteran Players 51:56

• Brandon Cooks, despite being over 30, had a standout year with Dak Prescott in Best Ball leagues, providing solid touchdown opportunities.
• Cooks was acquired as an additional player in a trade but had a decent 54 receptions for 657 yards in Dallas the previous year.
• Amari Cooper, labeled an undervalued old player, boasts consistency, especially when paired with DeSean Watson.

“He was in points per game, he was tied with the tight end one and he’s going later.”

Evaluating Players’ Values and Draft Positions 55:21

• Discussion on the value of various players in different rounds: James Conner in the sixth, Alvin Kamara in the fifth, and Ezekiel Elliott in the 11th.
• Disagreement over drafting Ezekiel Elliott even in the 11th round due to concerns about his impact on winning championships.
• Travis Kelce is highlighted as a valuable pick despite concerns about age and stiffer competition among the top tight ends this season.

“Undervalued… I like the four tight ends at the top, but I don’t like Sam LaPorta‘s ADP.”

Forecasting Travis Kelce‘s Performance 56:03

• Travis Kelce is seen as undervalued this year, with expectations of maintaining his high performance despite possible adjustments to manage his workload.
• Despite possible finish as TE1, Kelce might face closer competition from other top tight ends, possibly altering the point differentials in rankings.
• Statistics show Kelce’s comparable points per game to the tight end one from the previous season, indicating his worth even at an advanced age.

“Points per game identical… but he’s going later.”