Mid-Round Madness + Fraud Offenses

Summary:

New Fantasy Football Season Preview 02:20

• The hosts kick off the episode emphasizing the significance of the upcoming fantasy football season, celebrating a decade of their podcast and encouraging listeners to prepare for challenging competition.
• The Fantasy Footballers Podcast welcomes hosts Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright back after a brief hiatus, geared up to provide insights ahead of the preseason.
• The conversation quickly turns to injury reports, as participants express their hopeful anticipation for players to remain healthy leading into the season.

“Fantasy football is here, and we’re reaching the preseason.”

Mid-Round Madness and Fraudulent Offenses 03:30

• The hosts discuss the concept of “fraudulent offenses,” teams projected to underperform compared to their fantasy expectations, highlighting that many such teams emerge every year.
• They recall previous examples like the Cleveland Browns, who had high hopes but ended up disappointing fantasy managers.
• Mike Wright identifies the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a potential team that might regress due to the performance of quarterback Baker Mayfield, citing changes in their coaching staff and a lack of consistency from Mayfield in past seasons.

“I think that Baker really overproduced last year.”

• Jason Moore adds the Jacksonville Jaguars to the list of offenses to be cautious of, expressing skepticism about Trevor Lawrence‘s future performance compared to the hefty contract he received, attributing his concerns to the team’s struggles at the end of the previous season.

“If they were figured out at the end of last year and it continues into this season, I see a world where this offense just struggles.”

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• Mike emphasizes that the effectiveness of players like Stefon Diggs in the Buffalo Bills‘ offense hinges on surrounding talent, suggesting that the team’s success may decline with weaker supporting receivers.

“What made Buffalo prolific was the fact they had an alpha in the offense.”

Buffalo Offense Concerns 10:59

• The analysis highlights a transition in the Buffalo offense that could impact Josh Allen‘s performance. After losing a key alpha receiver, there are concerns about the team’s ability to maintain a high pass rate, especially under pressure. Historical comparisons with New England and Kansas City demonstrate that fluctuating offensive strategies can lead to inconsistencies in fantasy performance.
• Allen’s ability to adapt to increased pressure from defenses and the effectiveness of the team’s new dynamics are questioned, particularly regarding his connections with players like James Cook and Dalton Kincaid. The hesitance around Kincaid’s ranking reflects concerns over competition for targets and the overall effectiveness of the Buffalo offense.

“There are definitely yellow flags to overcome.”

Evaluating Josh Allen‘s Performance 12:22

• A noteworthy decision was made to trade Josh Allen in a dynasty league due to rising uncertainties around his performance. Despite Allen’s historical success, the evolving factors within the Buffalo offense raise questions about his ceiling and predictability, especially if no clear number one receiver emerges. Comparisons to Cam Newton illustrate potential vulnerabilities, although Allen is not as injury-prone.
• Scrutiny particularly focuses on the potential distribution of passing yards and touchdowns, which may not reach the high numbers observed in previous years due to offensive adjustments. The need for a reliable go-to receiver becomes critical for Allen’s fantasy output this year.

“If no one makes that jump, does Josh Allen figure it out?”

Josh Jacobs and Packers Uniforms Discussion 20:35

• The conversation opens with a mention of Josh Jacobs, who seems to have faced some issues, leading to questions about his status.
• As a resident Packers fan, there’s a discussion around the new alternative white helmets introduced by the team, with one participant expressing curiosity about them while another praises their design, noting they look good.
• The helmets prompt a debate about changing iconic uniforms, specifically referencing teams like the Packers, Cowboys, and Bears, which are known for their classic looks and how alterations can sometimes feel disruptive.

“It’s hard when you change an iconic uniform.”

Injury Updates: Joe Mixon and Deontra Forman 22:06

• The team provides updates on injuries concerning players such as Joe Mixon, who is recovering from a minor quadricep injury.
• Deontra Forman’s situation is discussed as well; he was recently released from the hospital after a neck injury but still remains a part of the Browns’ running back committee.
• There is ongoing speculation about Jerome Ford and his value as a late-round pick, with opinions being shared on his performance last season.

“I just think he’s got a cap. That’s all.”

Value Picks in Mid-Round Selections 24:15

• As the discussion shifts to mid-round draft picks, two names are highlighted: Ezekiel Elliott and David Njoku.
• Ezekiel is mentioned as a 10th-round pick who plays for a projected top-five offense, emphasizing the importance of opportunity in fantasy football.
• The commentary includes a comparison of player situations in Dallas, where Zeke is positioned amid murky backup situations.

“If you can attach that to a team that projects to be a really good offense, that should be an edge you’re looking for.”

Evaluation of Ezekiel Elliott‘s Backfield Role 27:30

• The analysis continues to emphasize Zeke’s value, particularly regarding his opportunity for touchdowns in a strong offensive setup.
• It is noted that his performance in the previous year showed him still capable of handling a significant workload, despite not being the elite player he once was.
• The relevance of context in making decisions about mid-round players, such as Zeke versus Gus Edwards, is highlighted, focusing on their respective roles in their teams.

“Volume is the king at the running back position.”

Drafting a Strong Late-Round Roster for Running Backs 30:13

• It is essential to recognize the potential ceiling of running backs when drafting late in fantasy football. Some players may not offer high upside, which could influence your roster decisions.
• For instance, in a zero RB strategy, waiting until later rounds to draft running backs can be fruitful. If you can acquire a starting running back in the 10th round after bypassing them for several rounds, that can equate to strong total fantasy points for your roster.
• Players like Jonathan Brooks, who possess age and talent, should be considered over established veterans who may not have as much upside left.

“If I’m going seven, eight rounds without getting a running back, and then all of a sudden in the 10th round, you can get a starting fine running back, that’s a strong total fantasy points at the end of a week build.”

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Evaluating Tight Ends – The Case of David Njoku 31:17

• David Njoku is a name worth considering for a breakout season, particularly following a strong end to his previous season. His recorded stats suggest he has the potential for solid production.
• The concerns arise from how his performance is affected by quarterback Deshaun Watson‘s presence, especially since Njoku performed better without him. However, even with that limitation, his floor appears promising based on his previous performance metrics.
• Understanding Njoku’s target potential gives insight; during his strongest stretches, he was on pace for a high volume of targets, often over 100 in a full season.

“I just think tight end 10 is kind of the floor for Njoku.”

The Comparison Between David Njoku and Other Tight Ends 35:12

• The comparison between Njoku and other tight ends like Jake Ferguson comes down to their usage and the roles they play in their respective offenses.
• Ferguson’s impressive target stats highlight his emerging role as Dak Prescott‘s go-to player. However, Njoku may offer more upside given his athletic prowess and potential for hyper-targeting in the future.
• The discussion also includes how both players benefit from favorable matchups and other tight end dynamics, creating a competitive landscape in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts.

“It’s funny, today’s almost a tight end show because we’re talking about who’s the value in the middle rounds.”

James Conner‘s 2024 Prospects and Backup Situation 39:32

• James Conner, the running back for the Arizona Cardinals, is holding steady with an average draft position (ADP) of the sixth round, placing him as the RB19. Despite concerns regarding his age—turning 29 and entering his eighth NFL season—Conner’s performance has not regressed as expected, which has led to ongoing discussions about his viability as a fantasy asset.
• Over the last two years, he has consistently performed well, and particularly during the final five games of the previous season, he averaged over 22 fantasy points per game. Conner demonstrated his ability to carry a heavy workload, averaging nearly 24 opportunities and accumulating significant rushing yards and touchdowns.
• With the backup running back situation in Arizona still uncertain, including players like Trey Benson and Michael Carter, Conner remains the primary option for the Cardinals. This ambiguity surrounding the backups further solidifies Conner’s role as a reliable fantasy choice for the upcoming season.

“He is a good pick. He’s going to score. He’s going to be involved and he is an exceptional running back for his age right now.”

Backup Running Backs in Arizona 40:11

• The discussion on backup running backs for the Cardinals reflects unease, with names like Trey Benson and Amari D. Markado creating uncertainty. Markado underperformed last season, causing a sense of reluctance among fantasy owners regarding investing in Arizona’s secondary running options.
• This unclear situation places added weight on James Conner, who not only is the established leader of the team but also proved capable of being a top fantasy asset when healthy, particularly under improving offensive conditions.

“Something about the backup running back situation is it’s all up in the air, which points further to James Conner for this year as solidified.”

Comparisons with Other Running Backs 42:42

• When comparing James Conner with fellow running backs such as David Montgomery and Aaron Jones, opinions lean strongly in favor of Conner for his reliability and upside. Montgomery’s potential as a standout player diminishes when considering Conner’s consistent output and his established role.
• Conner represents a value in the sixth round, suggesting he is undervalued compared to where he can potentially finish the season among the top 20 running backs.

“I would rather have Conner.”

Analyzing Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid‘s Performance 48:31

• The discussion highlights the performance of players Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, particularly under Joe Brady’s offensive coordinator role. The initial weeks during Kincaid’s debut were concerning, as the production was low, reflecting only six fantasy points per game during that time. Since then, there is an emphasis on the latter part of the season, specifically weeks 11 through 18, as more indicative of the players’ potential in the current season.
• Factors to be considered include the reduced role of Stefon Diggs in the offense and the significant contributions from running back James Cook, which shifted during the later parts of the season when Knox was not as heavily featured.

“I care about the last ones. You care about the Joe Brady weeks, week 11 through 18.”

The Potential of Ladd McConkey as a Rookie Wide Receiver 49:41

• Ladd McConkie emerges as an exciting prospect among rookie wide receivers, contrasting with the trend of others like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Neighbors who are garnering early high draft interest. McConkie was a second-round pick with strong initial support, as the team traded up to acquire him, suggesting they saw significant potential.
• The initial reports from training camp indicate he’s already established himself as a primary target, operating across multiple receiver positions, which bodes well for his fantasy potential. His adaptability in playing various roles within the offense is noted as crucial for success.

“He is a talented rookie wide receiver who’s on the field from snap one.”

Comparison of Ladd McConkey with Established Players 55:00

• The conversation discusses comparisons of Ladd McConkie’s role with other wide receivers like Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer. While McConkie displays the potential to perform well, especially in a spread offense, there’s a consensus that he might fit into a wide receiver two role rather than being a clear-cut number one.
• The historical performance of receivers in similar situations is referenced, indicating that consistent production is essential yet often varies based on team dynamics and individual performance capabilities.

“Keenan Allen has lived most of his career peaking around eight or nine, more of a 12 to 14 finisher.”

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Evaluating Receiver Performance 57:02

• The discussion highlights the challenges certain wide receivers face, particularly regarding their ability to secure consistent touches. It emphasizes that the inability to achieve double-digit touches may hinder a player’s overall impact.
• Keenan Allen‘s performance serves as a benchmark, as he was a top performer in 2022, finishing as the wide receiver 8 despite injuries. The conversation draws parallels between Keenan’s style and that of other emerging receivers who exhibit similar crisp route running and reliability.

“Keenan was the wide receiver three all year until he got injured.”

Show Schedule and Community Engagement 57:45

• The hosts of the show encourage listeners to engage with their content regularly, noting a packed week ahead with multiple shows planned. They emphasize their commitment to providing fantasy football insights throughout the NFL season, including mock drafts and wide receiver rankings.
• Listeners are also invited to connect with the broader fantasy football community and follow their social media channels for updates.

“We have five shows next week and throughout the entire NFL season.”