Early Busts + Draft Values

Summary:

Summer Sunburns and Listener Tips 01:33

“We named our basketball team just the Suns.”

• The hosts humorously discuss the very hot weather they are experiencing, particularly in the Valley of the Sun. They stress the importance of sun safety, especially for children spending extended time outdoors.
• Jason reveals that he often suffers from sunburn, averaging about one to one and a half significant burns each summer. This serves as a lighthearted reminder for listeners to be cautious in the heat.

Upcoming Fantasy Football Insights 01:54

“We’ve got early values and bust picks on the show today.”

• The podcast will delve into early value players and “bust” picks for the upcoming season, continuing their earlier discussions on sleepers and breakout candidates.
• Listeners are encouraged to stay tuned for these valuable insights, as the hosts also plan to share important news regarding player performances and trends around the league.

Important Player Updates and News Trends 03:08

“Apparently, the Saints have signed Cam Akers.”

• The show covers recent notable signings in the NFL, including the Saints signing Cam Akers, which impacts the fantasy landscape for running backs on the team.
• The discussion touches on the confusion surrounding the roster implications for Kendra Miller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, highlighting how these moves complicate fantasy ownership decisions.
• The dialogue continues with updates on key players like James Cook, who is participating fully in minicamps, and Anthony Richardson, whose recent reports suggest he will not need surgery but may need to play through pain.

Rookies and Team Dynamics 06:30

“Josh Reynolds is the clear-cut favorite to be the number two wide receiver in New York.”

• The hosts analyze the depth charts of notable NFL teams, specifically focusing on the Jets and their roster of wide receivers.
• They express disappointment over Jack Bash’s placement with the second team, emphasizing the challenges rookies face when established veterans take priority.
• The conversation includes insights into how team dynamics and player performances during training camps can significantly affect fantasy football outcomes.

Injury Updates and Fantasy Challenges 10:17

“Brandon Bean stated that Dalton Kincaid has added both strength and bulk to his frame this offseason.”

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• The discussion touches upon various players and their injury histories, specifically highlighting Dalton Kincaid, who is seen as making improvements in his physical condition after dealing with injuries the previous year.
• It indicates a sense of relief among beat reporters and fans as reports of player recoveries and improvements surface, fostering some optimism for the upcoming season.
• Additionally, the segment reflects on injuries affecting Keon Coleman, suggesting that such setbacks are common and can significantly hinder a player’s performance.

The Definition of a “Bust” in Fantasy Football 11:20

“We define a bust as players that are at high risk for fantasy football, representing potential for disappointment based on their draft position.”

• The term “bust” is clarified, indicating it’s not about players who are guaranteed to fail but those with factors that could lead to underperformance relative to their expected value or draft position.
• The hosts reference CJ Stroud as a prior example of this definition, highlighting how players can exceed expectations in real-life performance yet still fall short in fantasy scoring.
• The upcoming discussion promises to introduce players categorized as potential busts, including a quarterback, a running back, and a wide receiver.

Patrick Mahomes as a Fantasy Risk 12:23

“I am not sure you are a great fantasy quarterback anymore.”

• A critical assessment of Patrick Mahomes reveals doubts about his effectiveness as a fantasy asset, even though he remains a top-tier talent in the NFL.
• Evidence shows Mahomes’ average depth of target has significantly decreased over the years, which contributes to lower statistical output relative to expectations for fantasy scoring.
• The hosts cite that Mahomes had underwhelming performances last season, failing to achieve a top 12 finish until week nine and raising concerns about his value being drafted too high despite a perceived drop in fantasy performance.

Draft Strategy Considerations for Mahomes 16:00

“What you lose with Mahomes is flexibility, as he has not been worthy of being an every week start for two straight years.”

• Concerns are raised about committing to Mahomes as a high draft pick, which could hinder the ability to make adjustments later in the season, given his recent inconsistency.
• The hosts suggest exploring other options at quarterback that offer similar potential upside without the restrictive commitment that comes with drafting Mahomes.
• Mentioned are various running backs and wide receivers who may provide better value in the fifth round, emphasizing the scarcity and importance of maximizing potential talent in the early draft rounds.

Cooper Kupp‘s Decline and Concerns 19:30

“Cooper Kupp, the once-great wide receiver, has shown a decline across the board.”

• The speaker initially did not consider Cooper Kupp, the wide receiver for the Seattle Seahawks, a suitable pick for this discussion. However, upon examining his draft position, it became evident that he is being selected before players perceived as better options, like Stefon Diggs and others.
• Cooper Kupp recently turned 32 years old, which poses challenges for a player of his caliber, especially given his significant decline in performance metrics over the years. His stats, including routes per game, snap rate, and receiving yards, have consistently decreased.
• At 32, it is rare for a wide receiver to change teams, particularly after playing for nine seasons, and still deliver significant fantasy value. Historical examples of players who have done so are sparse, with most cases resulting in disappointing outcomes.

Historical Context and Examples of Aging Receivers Switching Teams 21:10

“You just don’t get 32-year-old wide receivers that change teams in year nine and suddenly pay off for fantasy football.”

• The narrative includes mentions of famous wide receivers who changed teams at age 31 or older and failed to live up to expectations, which establishes a pattern of decline for aging players in new systems.
• Notable failed transitions include Jordy Nelson, Michael Crabtree, and A.J. Green, all of whom faced disappointing seasons after changing teams.
• There have only been two notable successes for receivers switching teams at this age in the past twelve years: Brandon Marshall and Davante Adams. Both managed to have productive years, which creates a stark contrast to the vast majority who struggled or failed to meet prior performance levels.

Challenges Cooper Kupp Faces With Team Transition 22:30

“It feels a lot more like a Jordy Nelson Raiders-type of season.”

• Following Kupp’s move to the Seahawks, he will work with a new offensive system and personnel, including potentially adjusting to quarterback Sam Darnold, which adds layers of uncertainty regarding his performance.
• Kupp’s injury history compounds these challenges, as he has only played nine, twelve, and twelve games over the last three seasons. This makes crafting a reliable projection for his upcoming season difficult.
• While Kupp may still provide value to his team, the discussion highlights the difference between being valuable on the field and providing fantasy football returns, suggesting he may be overshadowed by younger, ascending talent like Jaden Reed or Josh Downs.

Running Back Performance and Concerns 29:01

“He was 13 for 55 on average, but he scored in 10 separate weeks.”

• The discussion highlights the somewhat inconsistent performance of running back David Montgomery, who had 185 carries last year but recorded a longest run of only 21 yards. This suggests a lack of explosive plays typically expected from a starting running back.
• Montgomery’s performance raised concerns about his dependency on touchdowns for fantasy value, scoring in 10 different weeks, indicating that his overall yardage output might not meet expectations if the scoring opportunities dwindle.
• There is apprehension regarding the Lions’ offense moving forward, particularly if they do not maintain last year’s high scoring and efficiency. This could lead to an increased reliance on teammate Jameer Gibbs for offensive sparks, which may diminish Montgomery’s role.

Injury Risk and Historical Context 31:05

“He has missed a handful… He’s never played a 17-game season before.”

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• Montgomery has a history of injury, having never completed a 16-game season in his career, which raises questions about his durability and consistent availability in upcoming seasons.
• While in the fifth round of drafts, Montgomery is considered a reasonable pick due to his potential, the risk associated with his injury history and the loss of key offensive players, such as elite center Frank Ragnow for run blocking, could impact his performance.

Value Comparisons in Drafts 35:13

“By the time drafts come around, I think that those rookies will be drafted ahead of Montgomery.”

• With discussions about various running backs, it’s mentioned that Montgomery’s perceived value might decrease as rookie players enter the mix, potentially leading to a shift in draft positions where rookies overshadow established players.
• The conversation acknowledges the broader value of running backs, emphasizing that finding a good veteran player might offer superior return on investment compared to riskier rookie selections that many analysts expect to be drafted earlier.

Nick Chubb and Other Running Backs’ Value 38:16

“This guy is being forgotten about how good he was last year.”

• Nick Chubb, at 30 years old and recently recovering from significant knee injuries, seems to be overlooked regarding his performance from the previous season. Despite his age and health concerns, many believe that he possesses considerable value heading into the upcoming season.
• The discussion highlights various running backs, including Josh Jacobs and Joe Mixon, drawing attention to their varying draft positions and recent performances. For instance, Jacobs was regarded as a top performer before suffering injuries that affected his playtime toward the end of last season.

Joe Mixon’s Potential in a New Season 38:28

“Mixon had to carry the load last year due to other players’ injuries.”

• Joe Mixon‘s situation reflects the challenges faced by running backs when their team experiences injuries. With key players sidelined, Mixon was required to take on a larger role within the offense, which impacted his overall performance.
• Despite his fluctuating performance, there’s optimism surrounding Mixon due to the potential for a revamped offensive strategy that may enhance his opportunities. The team could once again thrive in a favorable division with a recovering C.J. Stroud.

The Drafting Strategy for Running Backs 39:31

“If you end up snagging a high-upside guy, you can rely on a veteran like Mixon.”

• Selecting running backs strategically during drafts involves weighing options such as stability versus high-risk, high-reward players. By drafting a solid veteran like Mixon, teams can secure dependable points while also pursuing emerging talents such as rookie prospects.
• It emphasizes the advantage of Mixon’s projected value as he’s set to perform well in a favorable offensive scheme, making him an ideal choice in the mid-rounds.

Travis Etienne’s Down Year and Potential Comeback 43:10

“He ended up going from 15 points a game to 7.4 a game.”

• The conversation shifts to Travis Etienne, who faced a significant drop in performance last season. His statistics showcase a dramatic decline from being a top player to one of the worst producers, primarily due to ineffective offensive line support and injuries among teammates.
• With a new offensive coordinator taking charge, there’s hope that Etienne can improve with better support and strategy tailored to his skills. Investing in him now presents a potential upside since he could thrive under improved conditions.

Analysis of Travis ETN and Rashad White’s Performance 47:47

“If you put Rashad White on the team in place of Travis ETN, I think he’d be going ahead of the ninth round.”

• There’s a comparison being drawn between Travis ETN and Rashad White, suggesting that if White were positioned as a primary option, he would be valued higher in drafts.
• The speaker points out that while both players are similar, ETN is not definitively a worse runner.
• ETN’s production potential is seen as limited due to the stronger offensive line that Rashad White has benefited from.
• The conversation emphasizes the need for caution regarding the excitement surrounding these players, especially considering other emerging talents like Tank Bigsby.

Travis ETN’s Current Situation and Offensive Strategy 48:26

“ETN said Thursday at minicamp that Liam Cohen’s offense has been getting him into a lot of space, putting him in a position to make plays.”

• The notes indicate that ETN is optimistic about his role in the new offense under Liam Cohen, suggesting he is getting opportunities to showcase his abilities.
• Reports from sources like Sports Illustrated affirm that ETN is expected to start as the team’s RB1, positioning him for a significant chance at success in the upcoming season.
• The discussion highlights the potential hurdles for other running backs on the roster, indicating that rookie Tootin and Bigsby need to overcome their inexperience to challenge ETN’s dominance.

George Pickens‘ Potential in the Dallas Cowboys Offense 49:54

“He is just a nitro boost to your fantasy lineup.”

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• The analysis of George Pickens is rooted in his performance stats, noting that he accumulated 900 receiving yards and averaged over 15 yards per reception in his previous seasons.
• Pickens’ overall production is assessed positively, especially in light of external factors like penalties that negated significant yardage.
• The commentary emphasizes the favorable situation Pickens finds himself in with Dak Prescott leading the Cowboys, suggesting a bright outlook for him as a solid wide receiver option.

Concerns Around George Pickens and Fantasy Prospects 55:10

“I think what gets in George Pickens‘ way is going to be George Pickens.”

• The discussion raises questions about Pickens’ ability to consistently perform, suggesting that his own habits may be a limiting factor in developing into the team’s standout player.
• Despite being in a favorable offensive scheme, the consensus seems to be that maturity on and off the field will be crucial for maximizing his potential this season.
• The historical comparison to other successful receivers further illustrates that while Pickens has talent, consistency will be key to unlocking his best performance in fantasy leagues.

Cowboys’ Player Dynamics and Compensation Strategies 57:14

“If he has a big season, he’s not a Cowboy.”

• The discussion highlights the situation with players in the Dallas Cowboys organization, focusing on how the success of an individual player can impact their status with the team. The concept of player compensation is presented, particularly emphasizing that if a player shines in their performance, they may not stay with the team due to free agency implications.
• The mention of Lamb having “that big deal” indicates that there are financial strategies at play, as the Cowboys could secure some compensation if they lose a player to free agency. This further explains the rationale behind managing contracts and performance expectations.

Upcoming Show and Draft Kit Information 57:28

“On the next episode, we’ve got another mock draft coming up in the next couple of weeks.”

• The announcement of a new show segment, “underrated or overrated,” indicates an engaging format aimed at evaluating player value in the league. This could attract a wide audience keen on gaining insights into player assessments.
• The reference to the “ultimate draft kit” serves as a resource for fantasy football enthusiasts who aim to prepare for their drafts. It reinforces the excitement around the upcoming draft season, where anticipation is high as every team starts anew with hopes of success.
• Listeners are encouraged to check for updates and features through UltimateDraftKit.com, including the upcoming draft analyzer, which suggests ongoing enhancements designed to better serve the needs of fantasy players.

Personal Anecdotes and Community Engagement 58:10

“I’m in a tremendous amount of pain.”

• A personal anecdote from one of the hosts illustrates the human side of the sport, showcasing that even those involved in football can face physical challenges. It adds a relatable touch to the discussion amidst the otherwise analytical conversation.
• The humorous mention of forgetting sunscreen in the Arizona heat speaks to the carelessness that can happen in daily life, serving as a reminder for listeners to stay prepared and savvy, even off the field.