Busts & Value Picks + Caleb Saves Chicago?

Summary:

Season Welcome and Podcast Highlights 00:30

• The hosts of the Fantasy Footballers podcast, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike, welcome listeners to the busy Fantasy Draft season. They express excitement over the content of the episode, which focuses on busts and value picks, alongside a recap of recent football news.
• The trio plans to discuss them in detail while also catching up on various drafts they have participated in recently.

“We have a busts and values episode of the podcast today.”

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Thoughts on Hard Knocks and Caleb Williams 01:59

• The hosts share their views on the season of Hard Knocks, noting that they feel the storytelling has become lackluster. They believe the show is phoning it in and could benefit from more compelling narratives about the players.
• They particularly focus on Caleb Williams, discussing the pressure on the Bears as they hope he will be the transformative player for the franchise. They acknowledge this is a significant burden, especially considering the team’s historical struggles at the quarterback position.

“There’s a lot of people making a big deal about the Bears… to put that kind of pressure right is hard.”

Predictions for Caleb Williams and the Bears 03:46

• The hosts express optimism about Caleb Williams‘ potential success in the NFL. They mention his unflappable demeanor and skill set, suggesting that his mindset differs from typical rookie quarterbacks burdened by the need to prove themselves.
• While they believe in his ability long term, they caution that the Bears may not be a playoff team this year, emphasizing the challenges that lie ahead before reaching success.

“I think Caleb Williams is going to break that 4,000-yard passing record.”

Announcements and Community Engagement 05:38

• An announcement is made about the ongoing Megalabowl, where every Foot Clan supporter earns a free entry into the largest fantasy football league. The hosts highlight the excitement and participation levels, noting that over 20,000 people have entered in the past few years.
• They encourage listeners to check out recent changes, including the return of trades, and detail upcoming events, including a live show, where they will be giving away signed jerseys and memorabilia.

“Every Foot Clan supporter gets a free entry to the largest fantasy football league in the world.”

Trey Benson‘s Potential and James Conner‘s Future 10:17

• The discussion centers around the potential value of Trey Benson, especially if James Conner were to get injured, which is likely given Conner’s history of not completing a full season. Benson, who is a robust running back at 216 pounds and has a speedy record of running a 4.39 40-yard dash, showcased a strong film presence during his breakout.
• It is suggested that while Benson may initially be overlooked in a dynasty league, he presents an opportunity for fantasy football players to acquire him inexpensively midway through the season before Conner’s inevitable injury occurs.
• The comparison is made to Trey McBride, who was previously also undervalued as he played behind a veteran. The discussion emphasizes that while Benson may not be heavily involved at the start of the season, his value is projected to rise as Conner’s tenure with the team comes to a close.

“Halfway through this year, if he’s really irrelevant, I would try to scoop him up.”

Deontay Foreman’s Role in Cleveland 12:20

• Deontay Foreman is highlighted as a potential deep pick for fantasy football managers, as he has shown flashes of talent in preseason outings and might secure the goal-line opportunities that were previously held by Kareem Hunt.
• With the current composition of Cleveland’s running back depth—the uncertainty surrounding how they will deploy Jerome Ford alongside Foreman—the discussion leads to possible outcomes for Foreman’s effectiveness as a touchdown scorer.
• With the potential for Cleveland to possess a strong defense and be a playoff contender, acquiring Foreman could yield dividends in the form of touchdowns, particularly if he finds himself in favorable situations during games.

“If Deontay Foreman has the goal-line opportunities, it could be huge for fantasy owners.”

Concerns About Top Wide Receivers 13:50

• Concerns are expressed regarding top wide receivers Jamar Chase, CeeDee Lamb, and Brandon Aiyuk, all of whom are currently not practicing due to ongoing contract negotiations. The importance of these players being on the field, especially during draft season, is underscored.
• The group discusses how their absence from practice can impact their readiness and the overall chemistry with their quarterbacks, which could alter draft strategies based on the perceived risk associated with them.
• Even among elite players, their current contract situations create uncertainty that could affect draft decisions, leading some managers to consider drafting other players instead, such as Bijan Robinson.

“We want certainty; we want to know what we’re doing as we’re drafting now.”

Injury Updates and Monitoring Players 19:42

• Brock Bowers, a prominent tight end, missed practice due to a sore foot and his absence from a recent preseason game is also concerning. It highlights the need to monitor his condition as the season progresses.
• Additionally, Jahn Johnson has been activated from the PUP list after undergoing foot surgery in the spring, presenting another depth issue for the Saints at tight end.
• The fantasy football landscape continues to evolve with player injuries impacting draft strategies and team configurations.

“Brock Bowers missed Tuesday’s practice with a sore foot and missed the last preseason game with the same issue.”

Bust Picks Discussion 20:29

• The hosts transition into discussing bust picks, emphasizing that they had previously covered breakout and sleeper picks in prior episodes. They express a consensus on many players but acknowledge they differ significantly on certain bust predictions.
• Mike begins by sharing his concerns about Joe Mixon‘s potential for the upcoming season. He argues that Mixon’s inefficiency has been overlooked, noting he finished as a top running back despite subpar performance metrics.
• Mixon’s lack of explosive plays and poor efficiency in key areas reveals a concerning trend that suggests he may not meet his Average Draft Position (ADP).

“He cannot keep getting away with this.”

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Joe Mixon Analysis 22:10

• Mike elaborates on Mixon’s stats, pointing out that he was the RB5 in fantasy points per game, but this statistic is misleading as it doesn’t reflect poor efficiency metrics, such as yards per route run and breakaway run percentage.
• He stresses that Mixon was largely a volume-based player, benefiting from the Bengals’ high-powered offense.
• Despite being a veteran, red flags emerge regarding Mixon’s viability in the Texans’ system under Bobby Slowick, which may favor more explosive running backs.

“I think he is being overdrafted.”

Strong Opinions on Wide Receivers 28:00

• Following the debate on Mixon, Jason highlights Jackson Smith-Njigba’s (JSN) challenges. He notes that feelings about JSN may come from wishful thinking rather than actual performance metrics from last season.
• There are concerns about JSN’s capacity to emerge as a substantial contributor, particularly due to the presence of established receivers like Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf on the team.
• Jason’s skepticism is rooted in JSN’s limited production and his competition within the current roster.

“The only way to really believe in JSN is excuse-making to a large degree.”

Rookie Underperformance and Expectations 29:45

• The discussion highlights a concerning trend among rookie wide receivers who played 10 or more games and averaged fewer than 40 yards per game. Some notable names on this underwhelming list include Quinton Johnston, Henry Ruggs, and Cory Davis, indicating that being a first-round draft pick does not guarantee performance.
• Jackson Smith-Njigba (JSN) is also mentioned within this context, as there are worries about his potential to replicate success in his rookie season due to previous usage strategies that didn’t play to his strengths. If he continues to be utilized like last year, where he primarily caught passes behind the line of scrimmage, he may struggle to contribute meaningfully.
• Comparisons are drawn with Rondale Moore, expressing concerns that JSN may get boxed in by the greater talents surrounding him—DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett—along with the uncertainty regarding the quarterback situation with Geno Smith.
• The segment emphasizes that first-round draft capital doesn’t guarantee future success, referencing failed rookie seasons of former high draft picks like Corey Coleman and John Ross.

“Being a first-round draft pick does not guarantee performance.”

Draft Value Concerns for Marvin Harrison Jr. 33:25

• Marvin Harrison Jr. is projected as a highly talented wide receiver but is cautioned against based on his fantasy draft position. Despite being an incredible prospect, the discussion focuses on the draft cost compared to the potential value he can provide during his rookie season.
• Harrison is currently being drafted as the ninth wide receiver overall, which poses a risk given that historically, achieving top-10 wide receiver status requires a significant amount of production—148 targets, over 1,366 receiving yards, and close to 10 touchdowns.
• The panel expresses that if Harrison were to produce 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns, it would be considered a fantastic rookie year. However, from a draft perspective, it would not fulfill the expectations set at his high draft position.
• The potential value that could be gained by selecting other running backs or wide receivers in a similar draft range is a significant point of discussion, suggesting that Harrison’s corresponding cost may not be justified.

“If he hits 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns, that is an amazing rookie season, but you won’t have made a good draft pick at the one-turn.”

Value Picks: Jerome Ford 39:19

• Jerome Ford is being highlighted as a value pick for fantasy football, particularly in keeper leagues. He stepped into a significant role last season when Nick Chubb suffered an injury early in the season. While his performances weren’t explosive, he was consistent enough to rank inside the top 24 running backs multiple times, reinforcing his capability as a reliable starter.
• Ford averaged nearly 16 opportunities per game and demonstrated skills as a pass catcher, ranking third on the Browns in targets per route run. His capability to accumulate fantasy points makes him an appealing target in drafts, especially given his current Average Draft Position (ADP).
• The possibility of Chubb, who has had recurrent knee issues, losing his starting role in favor of Ford is also a consideration, further solidifying Ford’s potential value as a mid-tier RB2 option.

“The fact that you can get someone who’s going to see that many opportunities is just… it’s an absolute value and a steal for me.”

Value Picks: Brian Robinson Jr. 42:51

• Brian Robinson Jr. is another value pick that has been emphasized, noted for being a consistent performer in a previously high-volume passing offense. Despite being labeled as ‘boring’, Robinson managed to rank as the RB4 in fantasy football over a significant stretch last season. His ability to catch the football is improving, which should enhance his overall fantasy output.
• The expectation of Robinson’s role in an offense under Cliff Kingsbury suggests he could see numerous scoring opportunities, particularly near the goal line. This could lead to a high number of touchdowns, bolstering his fantasy value as he is being drafted outside of the top 30 running backs.
• It’s emphasized that both Robinson and Ford can serve as valuable depth for fantasy teams, especially for managers who might opt for a zero running back strategy at the beginning of drafts.

“Brian Robinson should be the starter all year… these guys are good if you loaded up on wide receivers.”

Considerations for Drafting Running Backs 46:25

• A nuanced discussion surrounding the value of Ford and Robinson reveals that while both players are capable of exceeding their ADP, they may not be strong enough to carry a fantasy team to a championship alone. They are more suited for providing depth and stability in a roster rather than being the primary stars.
• The notion of using these players as temporary solutions while seeking higher value options or awaiting injuries to other running backs is a strategy that could be beneficial for fantasy managers. Their consistent opportunities could provide a necessary buffer early in the season.

“They help you out for a couple weeks throughout the season… you’re waiting on insurance running backs to turn into starters.”

George Kittle‘s Value in 2024 48:51

• The discussion centers around George Kittle, the tight end for the San Francisco 49ers, and his perceived value for the upcoming fantasy football season. Despite having underperformed in recent years, Kittle’s drafting position has dropped significantly, leading to a potential opportunity for value. His performance history shows that he has been a top-five tight end in five out of the last six years, which places him in the conversation for a strong rebound.
• Kittle’s stats indicate he led all tight ends in receiving yards last year; he also had the most 20-plus yard plays and excellent yards per route run, contributing to a solid floor for fantasy points. The analysis also draws attention to his connection with quarterback Brock Purdy, suggesting a higher than average percentage of games with substantial fantasy point outputs.
• His draft position has notably changed, falling to tight end seven, which often places him behind other players who may not have proven as much. The conversation highlights that with the right circumstances—like potential injury to key players on the 49ers roster—Kittle has paths to reclaiming a higher target share and even a superstar role.

“He should be a top-five tight end this year; that seems way in the range of outcomes.”

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Evaluating Tight End Performance Metrics 52:55

• When evaluating Kittle, the conversation shifts to analyzing the metrics that indicate his boom or bust potential. The discussion reveals that he averages a credible number of games where he scores over 10 fantasy points and performs well in terms of delivering weak-winning performances.
• In contrast, the frequency of games in which he falls below seven points is also considered significant, grouped with the data on other elite tight ends to provide context on his performance and risk assessment. Players like Kelce and Sam LaPorta had higher bust rates, pointing towards Kittle being relatively undervalued based on his current drafting position.

“Where he’s going, because of his positional draft position, he is the tight end seven right now.”

Upcoming Events and Community Engagement 53:00

• As the session wraps up, the commentators remind listeners of an upcoming opportunity to participate in an extensive fantasy football league through megal.com, emphasizing the excitement and community involvement that continues to grow around the sport.
• They mention the variety of draft times available, encouraging everyone to get involved and take part, noting the diverse lineup of hosts who will be drafting at different times.

“Come play in the largest fantasy football league in the known universe.”