Breakout Picks + Standout Schedules | Fantasy Football 2024 – Ep. 1615

Fantasy Champions and League Updates 00:25

• The podcast promotes using FantasyChampions.com to buy trophies, belts, and special rings, which can serve as great prizes for league champions. By using the code “free ring,” buyers can get a free ring with their trophy.
• The hosts welcomed listeners to the episode, highlighting the excitement around upcoming drafts and preparations for fantasy football leagues. They laid out a schedule that includes discussions about breakouts, sleepers, and valuation picks.
• The listener league winners have been notified, with a thousand submissions received, showcasing the engagement and interest from their audience. Though only a few advance to play with the hosts, there’s always a chance for others to participate in future leagues.

“Go to FantasyChampions.com, you fantasy champions.”

Strategies for Success in Fantasy Football 07:23

• The hosts emphasize the importance of considering the beginning schedules of players when drafting. They believe that performing well in the league is strongly tied to how players start their season, which can be a crucial tiebreaker during drafts.
• The segment argues that while many may focus on player performance throughout the entire season, the first month is often overlooked despite its potential impact on team success. Drafting strategies should take early schedule strengths into account.
• They caution that relying on end-of-season schedules is less reliable, as defensive strengths can fluctuate significantly from year to year. A better approach for drafting involves looking at initial matchups, giving accurate projections based on last year’s data.

“The draft sets a great foundation; you don’t win your league at the draft.”

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Player Matchups and Draft Insights 10:27

• The discussion revolves around various players who are under-considered during drafts, particularly Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa. Their strong projected performances in high-scoring matchups signal they could be more valuable than perceived.
• Tua has impressive over/under numbers (49, 51, and 49) and a favorable matchup against Tennessee, making him a more attractive option than initially thought. A positive season start (3-0 versus 0-3) is critical for fantasy teams.
• Jared Goff‘s notable schedule makes him a targeted player, as he recorded seven top-12 finishes the previous year. Players like Josh Jacobs also show promise due to facing weaker running defenses.
• The conversation continues with potential breakout players like James Cook, who has a favorable schedule against Arizona and Miami, and Taj Spear, highlighted due to the poor performance of Tennessee’s opponents.
• It’s emphasized that patience is challenging in fantasy football, as early disappointments funnel decision-making.
• Important wide receiver options include Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, who both have strong season beginnings, and Jameson Williams, who has similar advantageous matchups as Goff.
• The tight end position sees focus on Evan Ingram, who is getting positive buzz due to his camp performance. Hunter Henry is also mentioned as a player to watch given his potential for a strong start.

“You don’t have to make a lifetime commitment to Tua, but starting the year, he’s a much better draft pick than I had been spinning the offseason thinking.”

Evaluating Rome and Caleb Williams‘ Impact 20:09

• The discussion highlights Rome’s potential as the third target for a rookie quarterback, Caleb Williams, as they start the season. Rome’s early performance in the preseason, including a deep shot down the sideline, suggests he has significant talent and could be a valuable player if he remains in two-wide receiver sets.
• While he’s ranked as the 33rd drafted wide receiver, his position ahead of more established names like Calvin Ridley raises questions about his draft value. The speaker argues for the merit of selecting talented rookie wide receivers late in drafts, emphasizing that drafting based on talent can yield rewards despite the inherent risk.
• As opportunities arise, such as injuries to starters, Rome’s impact could grow, making him someone to keep an eye on during early weeks of the season.

“Betting on talent is essential; the wild world of the NFL is unpredictable, injuries happen, and sometimes that lucky break for a rookie could be all it takes.”

Tim Patrick‘s Comeback and Potential 22:31

• Tim Patrick, returning from multiple seasons away from football, might be poised to become a top wide receiver for the Denver Broncos this year. His long absence raises questions, but his fresh legs could give him an advantage in the upcoming season.
• The gamble on Patrick is compounded by the uncertainty surrounding the Broncos’ wide receiver situation, which may open up opportunities for him.

“There is a chance that Tim Patrick just ends up being the best wide receiver on the Denver Broncos this year.”

Taysom Hill‘s Role with the Saints 23:13

• Taysom Hill remains a focal point for the New Orleans Saints, often positioned as a gadget player. Despite his varied usage, the expectation is that he will continue to receive goal-line opportunities and appear across all offensive sets.
• If utilized as a tight end in fantasy leagues, Hill could provide significant value through spike weeks, even if he is inconsistent overall. The strategy surrounding Hill hinges on his eligibility in different formats.

“If you can put Taysom Hill in as a tight end, be prepared for huge spike weeks, despite the weeks where you see nothing at all.”

Gardner Minshew Named Starting Quarterback for Raiders 24:31

• The Raiders have named Gardner Minshew as their starting quarterback for the opening week of the season, leading to excitement about his impact on the offense, particularly for wide receiver Davante Adams.
• Minshew’s performance is anticipated to be better than that of Aiden O’Connell, which could influence how the Raiders’ offensive players are evaluated. The first few weeks of the season present pivotal matchups that could affect overall team performance and quarterback stability.

“Minshew’s presence is a much better situation for fantasy players, especially for Davante Adams in the Raiders’ offense.”

Poking the Bear and Breakout Picks 29:26

• The discussion starts with a humorous exchange between hosts about trade dealings, particularly involving Stafford and Shanahan, creating a playful vibe. Mike then transitions into breakout picks for the upcoming fantasy football season.
• The crew mentions the consensus breakout picks available in the Ultimate Draft Kit, emphasizing personal favorite selections that could become significant fantasy contributors. They highlight their strong convictions about certain players’ potentials based on previous performances and draft capital.
• Among the rookies, Brian Thomas Jr. of the Jacksonville Jaguars stands out as a key breakout candidate, being drafted as the wide receiver 46 in the middle of the ninth round on Sleeper. His ADP offers a favorable opportunity compared to other highly drafted rookies like Marvin Harrison and Malik Neighbors.
• Thomas, recruited 23rd overall out of LSU, had an impressive college season with 17 receiving touchdowns, the highest at a Power Five school since DeVonta Smith in 2020. The hosts note that social media buzz around Thomas has been growing, indicating interest in his talent and potential impact in fantasy leagues.
• They acknowledge concerns about Trevor Lawrence‘s performance but remain optimistic about his ability to help rookie wide receivers like Thomas thrive in a competitive environment. The consensus is that the value of Thomas lies in his average draft position and his strong college performance, making him a solid target in fantasy drafts.

“Brian Thomas Jr. is a go-to rookie that I think you should try to get in more drafts than not.”

Rashee Rice‘s Potential as a Breakout Player 34:30

• The conversation shifts to another rookie, Rushy Rice from the Kansas City Chiefs, who is gaining attention as a potential breakout candidate as well. Previous concerns about his availability have eased, as reports suggest he may not face any legal issues impacting his playtime.
• In his rookie season, Rice gradually became integral to the Chiefs’ offense, especially in the second half of the season when he emerged as a top target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, demonstrating a strong rapport by being the sole target as Kelce’s performance dipped.
• The hosts highlight Rice’s impressive stats post-bye week: an average of 9.3 targets and 7.2 receptions per game, which extrapolates to a staggering potential of 122 receptions if maintained throughout the season. His yards-after-catch ability, where 70% of his receiving yards came after the initial contact, showcases his skill set in the open field.
• Overall, there’s strong enthusiasm for Rice’s prospects this season, especially given his current ADP, which is quite low. The hosts suggest that if Rice continues on this track and becomes the number one target for Mahomes, he could deliver significant fantasy value.

“Rushy Rice is really good, and it’s not inconceivable to say he will out-target Travis Kelce this season.”

Analysis of Rice’s Draft Value and Bowers’s Potential 38:54

• The discussion highlights concerns surrounding wide receiver Rice’s potential due to legal issues, impacting perceptions of his draft value. Despite these worries, his ability and involvement on the field are emphasized as strong points.
• Rice has seen a drop in his draft stock, currently going in the eighth round, which is surprising given his talent. Analysts expected him to move up to the sixth or fifth round as the season approached.
• Additionally, Bowers, a rookie tight end with the Las Vegas Raiders, is highlighted as a breakout pick. Currently going in the late seventh round, his elite college performance raises expectations for his NFL impact.
• Bowers’ college accolades include being a two-time Mackey Award winner and leading a powerhouse Georgia team in receiving. His position versatility and the effectiveness of his play are considered benefits for potential fantasy owners.
• The suggestion is that Bowers can achieve significant success with fewer standout plays compared to other tight ends, making his potential even more appealing.

“Rice is a top 20 type of wide receiver to me but just has this risk of maybe he’s going to miss games.”

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Evaluating Davante Adams‘ Status 48:32

• The discussion centers on Devonte Adams being viewed as one of the top wide receivers in the NFL, with some considering him the best of all time. Despite concerns about age and team performance, many still regard him highly in terms of talent and skill.
• It is noted that while Adams had a challenging season, he still finished as the wide receiver 11, demonstrating his ability to perform despite obstacles. However, doubts arise regarding his age and whether this affects his potential for future seasons.
• The conversation touches on the risks of selecting older players like Adams early in drafts, particularly when younger alternatives are available.

“The talent is there… I don’t want to hold the bag with those compared to younger guys.”

Trade Choices for Keeper Leagues 49:56

• A question about a keeper league trade involving Breece Hall indicates the varying values of players based on their current round draft position. The consensus suggests that trading Hall for a fourth-round pick would not be wise, given the value in that round.
• Discussions of performance metrics illustrate how certain players can outscore others on a per-game basis, making detailed assessment of player trajectories crucial for decision-making in trades.
• The analysis emphasizes that although projecting player success can be challenging, understanding the potential upside based on individual skill and league dynamics is essential.

“There’s a world where I’m not sure you do that with Malik neighbors…”

Rookie Running Backs Trends 51:30

• The conversation highlights the unusual trend of rookie running backs this year, noting a lack of impactful players in contrast to previous seasons where multiple rookies emerged as significant contributors to fantasy performance.
• It is expressed that injuries often create opportunities for backup players to step up, suggesting that fantasy managers should remain adaptable as player situations change.
• The rarity of standout rookie running backs this time makes it a unique year for drafting, with many viable options likely appearing on the waiver wire.

“There’s literally no one that you’re drafting right now.”