Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 9
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 8:
- As Jordan Mason left the game early, Isaac Guerendo assumed the RB1 role for the 49ers. As you can see above, he led all rookie running backs with 14.4 Expected Points and +3.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected. Unfortunately, this was likely a short-lived opportunity as the Niners now approach their bye week. With Mason and Christian McCaffrey likely returning in Week 10, Guerendo will resume his role as the RB3 of this offense.
- With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin unavailable, the Bucs heavily relied on their running backs. That includes Bucky Irving, who finished the game with a 24% opportunity share and a 15% target share. In fact, Irving has finished with double-digit Expected Fantasy Points in four of his last five games. While his upside will be capped due to Rachaad White’s presence, Irving profiles as a weekly flex option based on his usage in recent weeks.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. finally had a bounce-back performance after three quiet weeks (in part due to injury), finishing with 12.0 Expected Fantasy Points and +8.1 Fantasy Points Over Expected. While his production has fluctuated, usage has rarely been the issue for MHJ, commanding at least a 20% target share and 30% air yards share in six of seven healthy games. While he will continue to compete for opportunities with Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, he should remain a weekly WR2 with tremendous upside.
- Jalen McMillan has benefited significantly from a pass-heavy game script and the absence of Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Over the last two weeks, McMillan is the WR8 in Expected Fantasy Points (13.0), which signals potential WR1 volume. However, his target share is only 16.5%, which means his fantasy value has been significantly dependent on the Bucs’ pace of play. Fortunately, for those debating starting McMillan, he could walk into significant volume once again as the Bucs will need to keep up with an efficient Kansas City Chiefs offense in Week 9.
- For the second week in a row, Xavier Worthy commanded at least a 20% target share and 25% air yards share, operating as a focal point even with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins. It is worth noting that Hopkins only participated on 33% of the routes, indicating that the Chiefs were still ramping him up after being traded last week. As he ramps up to full speed, I expect Justin Watson to be significantly impacted after operating as the WR2 alongside Worthy coming out of their bye week.
- While Ladd McConkey’s performance was impressive, keep in mind that his usage remained in flex territory (outside of the top 30 in Expected Fantasy Points) as the Chargers continued to lean on their running backs. As you can see above, McConkey scored +16.7 Fantasy Points Over Expected (two touchdowns on six opportunities) against the Saints, which indicates the potential for negative regression.
- Do the Broncos have their franchise quarterback? Bo Nix has been productive over the last four weeks, performing as a borderline QB1 in both usage and fantasy scoring. From an efficiency standpoint, Nix has hovered around the top 20, ranking as the QB18 in EPA per Play (0.13) and QB16 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+1.3) since Week 5. While there is still room for improvement, Nix continues to trend in the right direction, profiling as a high-end QB2 in recent weeks.
Dynasty Stock Report
Garrett Wilson – New York Jets, WR
Stock Up
This was a pivotal year for Garrett Wilson, who has yet to finish as a WR2 (or better) in points per game for full a season. With Aaron Rodgers fully healthy, the expectation was for Wilson to finally emerge as a WR1. However, with the Jets acquiring Davante Adams, there was some concern that this could derail his breakout campaign. Surprisingly, Wilson has remained the WR1 for the Jets as he continues to command elite usage. Through eight weeks, Wilson is averaging:
- 14.7 Expected Fantasy Points (WR3)
- 29.4% Target Share
- 39.7% Air Yards Share
- 26% Targets per Route Run
More importantly, with Adams in the lineup, Wilson continues to lead the Jets in target share (27%) and air yards share (56%). While that could change as Adams becomes more acclimated to the offense, it is clear that Wilson will remain a focal point. From a dynasty perspective, this should only confirm his value as a top-10 wide receiver. The more significant concern is that Rodgers has shown some signs of decline in various efficiency metrics. While that does cloud Wilson’s long-term outlook, keep in mind that situations can change very quickly in the NFL. For now, dynasty managers should feel encouraged by Wilson’s breakout as he continues to receive WR1 usage.
Chris Godwin – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, WR
Stock Down
It has been a devastating last couple of weeks for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as they lost Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injuries. Naturally, Godwin’s injury will have a significant impact on his dynasty value as he is out for the season with an ankle dislocation and fracture. Even though Todd Bowles indicated that he could still return late in the playoffs, we likely will not see him play again until next season. Even more devastating, Godwin was playing for an extension this year, which places some uncertainty on his dynasty outlook. On a positive note, elite wide receivers usually remain productive through age 31. So even at 29 years old, Godwin can pick up where he left off in 2024, ranking as the WR5 in half-PPR points per game this year. While his landing spot remains in flux as the Buccaneers have limited cap space after extending Evans, I still expect Godwin to get paid – whether that be with Tampa Bay or a different team. For now, his dynasty value will slowly decline, which could present a buy-low opportunity for dynasty managers looking for wide receiver depth next year.
Tucker Kraft – Green Bay Packers, TE
Stock Up
Tucker Kraft has unquestionably experienced the most significant improvement in his dynasty stock among all tight ends. Before the season started, Kraft was firmly ranked outside of the top 20 as many still assumed Luke Musgrave would be involved in the Packers’ offense. However, even when Musgrave was healthy, Kraft emerged as Green Bay’s TE1 as he led them in route participation with 76%. And through eight games, Kraft is currently setting career highs in:
- Target Share (14.1%)
- Air Yards Share (8.3%)
- Expected Fantasy Points (5.6 – TE21)
- Fantasy Points Over Expected (+3.9)
- Yards After the Catch per Reception (10.2)
Because of his elite efficiency, Kraft ranks as the TE4 in half-PPR leagues, behind only George Kittle, Brock Bowers, and Trey McBride. While his production has been impressive, keep in mind that his usage value only ranks TE21, finishing as a TE1 in Expected Fantasy Points only once this season. In other words, while he has the upside to finish within the top five on any given week, Kraft has the potential to also disappoint as his lack of elite volume usually leads to a lower floor. However, despite his volatility, Kraft should still be valued as a borderline dynasty TE1 considering his age, offensive ecosystem, and long-term quarterback situation.
Will Levis – Tennessee Titans, QB
Stock Down
The Will Levis experience may have run its course in Tennessee as we head into the second half of the season. Even before he suffered a shoulder injury, Levis was inconsistent at best, ranking well below average in multiple quarterback efficiency metrics. For context, among quarterbacks with a minimum of 100 plays, Levis is currently the QB35 in EPA per Play (-0.24) and the QB33 in Success Rate (40.2%). More specifically, Levis has struggled with his deep ball accuracy, ranking only QB26 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-4.6) on downfield throws. And while Mason Rudolph’s performance has been far from impressive, he does rank ahead of Levis in each of these metrics. The good news is that Levis should be fully healthy heading into Week 9, approaching some favorable matchups in the back half of the season. However, if the Titans continue to lose (currently 1-6), they could be well-positioned to draft a franchise quarterback in the 2025 draft. In that case, I would be shocked if they entered the 2025 season with Levis as their starter, unless he turns things around significantly in their final 10 games.
Prospect Watch List
Luther Burden III entered his collegiate career as one of the highest-rated prospects, ranking second in the nation at the wide receiver position. His combination of size (5’11” and 208 pounds), elusiveness, and versatility makes him such an intriguing prospect. Throughout his career at Missouri, we have seen him dominate on the field in a variety of ways, though he is most dangerous on manufactured, short receptions where he has the freedom to create with the ball in his hands. Especially with his ability to elude defenders and break tackles in the open field, Burden is one of the most dynamic college receivers after the catch. We saw this frequently in his sophomore season as he led all Power 5 wide receivers in yards after the catch (725) and yards after contact (314) according to PFF. That translated to an impressive 35% Receiving Yards Market Share and 3.2 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt, which ranks in the 96th percentile among all drafted wide receivers since 2013. Keep in mind his production ranked ahead of Tetairoa McMillan in 2023, who is widely considered the WR1 of the 2025 class.
Fast forward to his 2024 campaign and Burden’s production has taken a significant hit. As you can see above, he still accounts for 24% of their receiving yards, though Burden has been far less efficient at only 1.62 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. However, context matters. Part of that is due to the overall decline of their offense and quarterback play as they are currently 71st in the nation in receiving yards per game (216.1) and 99th in passer rating (121.6). For context, Missouri ranked within the top 20 in passer rating last season. Even if we include his rushing production, Burden is still averaging fewer scrimmage yards per team play compared to last season. So no matter what metric we look at, Burden has been less efficient to start his 2024 campaign. Regardless, that should not completely erase what he did last season when he was one of the most dominant receivers in the nation. In fact, if we include his 2024 campaign, Burden still ranks as a 92nd-percentile wide receiver prospect in my rookie model, alongside players like DeAndre Hopkins, Brandin Cooks, and Alshon Jeffery. So while his dynasty stock has taken a hit, Burden should still be considered a top-five pick in dynasty rookie drafts next season as he will likely be selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.
For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top wide receivers through Week 9 of the CFB season:
