Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 9
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report!
In this weekly series, I will be highlighting the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective. While most of this article will focus on NFL players, this piece will also include a brand new segment called the Prospect Watch List. My goal is to provide you with an overview of some of the best prospects entering the league to help gauge the potential value of your dynasty picks. Since there are quite a few prospects to follow, I will focus on a different position each week. In today’s piece, we will look at the most productive Wide Receivers in College Football. In short, you can expect the following segments every week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of rookie performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 8
To keep the dashboard concise, I will only be highlighting the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position every week. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points or xFP is a value that signifies volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually regress closer to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on for fantasy
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team
If you would like me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Observations after Week 8:
- Tyler Allgeier has seen his usage improve each week since Cordarrelle Patterson was placed on IR after Week 4. And this past week, he set a season-high in expected fantasy points (11.3) and target share (10.7%) against the Panthers. The receiving work was a pleasant surprise as Allgeier has only received two targets in his first six games. We know he will continue to receive around 15 carries per game as the Falcons establish the run. However, if he can also maintain his involvement in the passing game, that could further improve Allgeier’s floor into RB2 territory.
- Dameon Pierce had by far his most inefficient game on the ground as he only managed to average 2.3 yards per carry on 15 attempts. Despite his inefficiency, Pierce was still able to finish as an RB2 due to his 17.2% target share, scoring the first receiving touchdown of his career. I have mentioned this in previous articles, but Pierce’s floor will remain high due to tremendous usage as both a rusher and receiver in the Texans’ offense. So even if he has an inefficient game on the ground, his receiving work can help carry his fantasy production most weeks.
- After a quiet Week 7 performance, Romeo Doubs was the focal point of the Packers’ passing offense as he accounted for 55.7% of their air yards on an impressive 24.1% target share. In other words, if the Packers needed a big play in the passing game, Doubs was usually the intended target. And while he has been inconsistent over the last three weeks, he should be a flex option against a Detroit Lions‘ defense that has been very fantasy friendly to opposing wide receivers this season.
- Welcome back, Garrett Wilson. After a solid start to the season, Wilson has been very quiet since Zach Wilson took over at quarterback. However, this past week, it was clear that the Jets wanted to get him more involved. On several plays, they ran him in motion and got the ball in his hands quickly, allowing him to create yards after the catch. And with a couple of deep targets mixed in as well, Wilson had a career-high 115 receiving yards and 19.2 yards per reception.
- Isaiah Likely finally had his breakout game with Mark Andrews leaving the game early. He essentially slotted in as a direct replacement, running routes all over the field and commanding a high number of their targets. Despite playing only 67% of the snaps, Likely finished the game with an impressive 20.6% target share and 30.9% air yards share. Very rarely are backup TEs fantasy relevant. But in an offense that relies heavily on that position, Likely should be considered a TE1 as long as Andrews is sidelined with a shoulder injury.
- Speaking of TE1s, Greg Dulcich continues to impress as a receiving option for the Denver Broncos, finishing as a TE1 in each game this season. And while his target share took a slight decline from last week (20% in Week 7), Dulcich set a season-high 39.3% air yards share. As long as he remains this heavily involved in the passing game, especially as an intermediate and deep target, Dulcich should be considered a borderline TE1 every single week.
- While there was a lot of excitement surrounding Malik Willis, he finished with 1.40 fantasy points and -5.33 points below expected. Considering his upside was always tied to his rushing ability, fantasy managers were likely expecting more than 12 rushing yards and an 11.1% rushing share in his first career start.
Dynasty Stock Report
Stock Up
Rhamondre Stevenson – New England Patriots, RB
Can we finally trust a New England Patriots running back?
Based on Rhamondre Stevenson’s performance in recent weeks, he might just be a viable high-end RB2 for the rest of the season. Since Week 2, after Stevenson saw an improvement in his snap share, he has been one of the most heavily utilized and most productive running backs in the league. Over the last seven weeks, he ranks:
- RB8 in Half-PPR Points Per Game (16.3)
- RB9 in Expected Fantasy Points (14.5)
- RB8 in Opportunity Share (34.6%)
- RB4 in Target Share (17.7%)
What immediately caught my eye is his heavy usage as a receiver, as only Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Austin Ekeler have received a higher target share over the last seven weeks. Coupled with a healthy number of carries, Stevenson is currently one of the safest running backs in fantasy. Keep in mind, Damien Harris will be an unrestricted free agent and could be on a different team next year. But even if he does return, the Patriots have clearly shown a willingness to feature Stevenson in their offense, which makes him a top-24 dynasty running back going forward.
Stock Down
Skyy Moore – Kansas City Chiefs, WR
It has been a tough rookie season for Skyy Moore, who has barely received any playing time, slotting in behind Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Mecole Hardman on the depth chart. To add to that, the Chiefs recently acquired former first-round pick, Kadarius Toney, who flashed some elite efficiency in his rookie season with the Giants. How this will affect Moore’s playing time going forward remains to be seen. But considering the Chiefs felt the need to add on to their wide receiver corp after Moore’s slow start to the season lowers his likelihood of a second-half breakout.
Keep in mind, Juju Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman will both be free agents after this season, so Toney’s acquisition could also be a precaution in case they are unable to retain both receivers. Regardless, we should not forget that the Chiefs invested a second-round pick in Moore, who was one of the most productive college wide receivers over the last three seasons. Therefore, if dynasty managers are panicking and willing to trade Moore at a discount, this could present an opportunity to buy low on a talented wide receiver.
Stock Up
Geno Smith – Seattle Seahawks, QB
While many were concerned that the Seattle Seahawks‘ offense would take a step back with the departure of Russell Wilson, the exact opposite has happened thanks to the breakout and resurgence of Geno Smith. In fact, when healthy, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have remained in the WR2 range most weeks with Smith under center. As for Smith’s production, he has been one of the most accurate and efficient quarterbacks through the first eight weeks. In eight games, Smith is the:
- QB9 in Points Per Game (17.8)
- QB9 in Rushing Share (17.6%)
- QB6 in EPA Per Attempt (1.74)
- QB6 in Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (8.2)
- QB1 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+8.0)
And as you can see in the chart below, his efficiency has him ranked among some of the most elite quarterbacks in the league.
As for his dynasty value, if you had asked me during the off-season, I would have likely told you that Smith was nothing more than a bridge quarterback for the Seahawks. However, if he can keep up this level of production, it would not surprise me if they re-signed him to a shorter extension before the end of the year. Especially with the Seahawks currently fighting for a playoff spot, they are unlikely to select one of the top quarterbacks in next year’s draft. Therefore, depending on the cost, Smith could be a worthwhile investment in SuperFlex leagues. Because based on his current production, he should be a high-end QB2 for the rest of the season with the potential to be the Seahawks’ starting quarterback beyond this year.
Stock Down
Zack Moss – Indianapolis Colts, RB
The NFL trade deadline has come and gone, and Zack Moss is now a part of the Indianapolis Colts‘ backfield!
Even before the trade, his dynasty value was already trending in the wrong direction after the Buffalo Bills drafted James Cook in the second round. As a result, Moss has been slowly fazed out of the Bills’ offense this season. After averaging a meager 22.2% snap share and 8.0% opportunity share in his first five games, Moss has been a non-factor since Week 6, receiving a grand total of zero opportunities.
With a change in scenery, he goes from operating as the RB3 for the Bills to the likely RB3 for the Colts, assuming Deon Jackson holds on to that backup role. Regardless, it will remain difficult for Moss to gain any weekly fantasy relevance behind arguably the best running back in the league, Jonathan Taylor. And as long as Taylor remains healthy, Moss will be nothing more than a player to stash at the end of your dynasty bench.
Prospect Watch List: Week 9 – Wide Receivers
Jalin Hyatt – Tennessee
One of the most electric wide receivers in college football right now is Jalin Hyatt out of Tennessee, a true Junior who is eligible for the 2023 draft. You may have heard his name a couple of weeks ago when he put on an impressive performance against a stout Alabama defense, totaling 207 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Per ESPN, Hyatt is the first player to post at least 100 receiving yards and five touchdowns against a Nick Saban-coached Alabama team. In addition, per Cole Cubelic, Hyatt is also the first player since DeVonta Smith in 2019 to achieve 200 receiving yards and five touchdowns in a single game. Needless to say, it was a truly historic performance. And over the last three weeks, Hyatt is averaging an absurd 173 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns per game. As a result, he is now ranked first among all Power 5 wide receivers in Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (3.61) to go along with career-highs in Receiving Yards Market Share (32.1%) and Weighted Receiving Dominator Rating (36.4%).
While these numbers rank among some of the best in the country, Hyatt had to perform at this level to even be considered a day-two wide receiver. In his first two seasons, he totaled only 515 receiving yards on a 12.3% receiving yards market share, which means he likely would have been a day-three prospect at best before his breakout. But because of the lack of production to start his career, there are not many players that mirror his trajectory, making him a tough player to project at the next level. The closest comparison I could find was Diontae Johnson, who also has a similar frame at around 5’10” and 180 lbs. In addition, Johnson was also relatively unproductive in his first two collegiate seasons but had an elite campaign in his redshirt sophomore year at Toledo. Regardless, draft capital will be key to Hyatt’s dynasty value. If he can climb his way into day-two draft capital, he should be selected in the second round of dynasty rookie drafts (potentially higher) considering the upside we have seen from him in his Junior year.