Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 8
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 7:
- Quinshon Judkins has been a top-36 RB in usage value in every game so far this season. He has also been an RB1 in Expected Points in three of the last four games. Even though his production can be partially attributed to a run-heavy game script, Judkins continues to establish himself as one of the most valuable RBs this season.
- For the first time in his career, Brashard Smith finished within the top 30 in both fantasy points (10.6) and usage value (14.8 xFP). While his 19 opportunities were encouraging, keep in mind that the Chiefs had a +90% win probability with 11 minutes left in the second quarter. In other words, the game was already decided before the second half, allowing the Chiefs to rest Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco towards the end of the game. In a more competitive matchup, Smith’s role will likely remain limited for the Chiefs.
- Similar to the Chiefs, the Chicago Bears held a comfortable lead over the New Orleans Saints heading into the fourth quarter of their Week 7 matchup. As a result, Kyle Monangai received some additional opportunities, setting a career-high with 12.0 Expected Fantasy Points. Even after a productive performance for Monangai, this backfield still belongs to D’Andre Swift, who led the Bears’ backfield once again in total opportunities and usage value.
- Of course, Travis Hunter set career-highs in multiple metrics the week after I highlighted his declining dynasty value in last week’s article. Against the Rams, Hunter set a season-high in route participation (89%), target share (29.7%), and air yards share (22.8%), leading the Jaguars in total receiving production. With Brian Thomas Jr. potentially suffering a shoulder injury in the fourth quarter, Hunter may be the de facto WR1 for the Jaguars until he returns.
Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
- With the injury to Mike Evans, Emeka Egbuka was thrust back into the WR1 role for Baker Mayfield. And even though it did not yield a lot of production, he still finished as the WR8 in Expected Fantasy Points. Expect his efficiency to regress in Week 8. In addition, keep an eye on Tez Johnson, who continues to take advantage of his opportunities, setting a season-high in target share (18%) and Expected Fantasy Points (13.8) in Week 7.
- Oronde Gadsden II officially broke out this past week, finishing as a TE1 for the first time this season and setting a career-high with 13.3 Expected Fantasy Points. With the recent improvement in snaps, route participation, and target share, Gadsden is quickly becoming a borderline TE1 for fantasy managers.
- Since the Bears’ bye week, we have slowly seen them lean away from Cole Kmet and rely on Colston Loveland. Since Week 5, Kmet has only participated in 28% of the routes, compared to 53% of Loveland. And in Week 7, Loveland set a career-high in route participation (63%), target share (16%), and Expected Fantasy Points (6.9). While that is still far from TE1 usage, his improved involvement in the Bears’ offense has been an encouraging development over the last couple of weeks.
- With the Browns relying heavily on the running game, Harold Fannin only received five total opportunities in Week 7. However, he set a career high in both route participation (87%) and target share (27.8%), dominating in usage despite a less pass-centric game plan. With David Njoku still battling a knee injury, I expect a much more productive game for Fannin against the Patriots in Week 8.
Dynasty Stock Report
Cam Skattebo – New York Giants, RB – Stock Up
In a talented RB class, Cam Skattebo slipped to the fourth round of the NFL Draft. However, he always profiled as one of the better day-three picks after producing a 99th percentile collegiate season with Arizona State in 2024. In fact, because of his production profile, his prospect comps in our Dynasty Range of Outcomes series provided some hope that he could be one of the day-three outliers to break out in this year’s class. Fast forward to this season, Skattebo is already trending in that direction after taking over as the Giants’ RB1 in Week 3. Since then, he has averaged:
- 16.6 Expected Fantasy Points
- +1.73 Fantasy Points Over Expected
- 34.7% Opportunity Share
- 16.9% Target Share
For context, Skattebo is the RB6 in Expected Fantasy Points over the last five weeks, only slightly behind Jonathan Taylor and Bijan Robinson. Assuming his heavy usage continues, Skattebo should be locked in as a fantasy RB1 for the rest of the season. As for his dynasty value, he should already be ranked as a top-20 RB in ADP, with potential to finish even higher by year’s end. And although his day-three capital presents some risk going into next season, I would be shocked if the Giants replaced him after producing at such a high level in his rookie season.
TreVeyon Henderson – New England Patriots, RB – Stock Down
Speaking of rookie RBs, TreVeyon Henderson’s role has been inconsistent so far this season as he remains behind Rhamondre Stevenson on the depth chart. Even after the injury to Antonio Gibson, his usage continued to trend in the wrong direction as he set a season-low in snaps (14%) and opportunity share (3.3%) in Week 7. We even saw Terrell Jennings receive more touches than Henderson last week, causing even more panic across the dynasty community. And with Mike Vrabel remaining non-committal to an expanded role for Henderson, we may need to hold off on his breakout season until next year. Until then, his dynasty value will continue to decline, presenting a potential buy-low opportunity for dynasty managers looking to rebuild.
Drake Maye – New England Patriots, QB – Stock Up
While Henderson’s value has taken a hit this season, Drake Maye has quickly emerged as a fantasy QB1 with the Patriots. After showing flashes in his rookie year, Maye has taken a significant step forward as one of the most accurate and efficient passers in the league. On top of that, he continues to produce on the ground, which has resulted in QB1 performances in five of his last six games. For context on how dominant Maye has been this year, he is currently the:
- QB6 in Fantasy Points per Game (20.9)
- QB7 in Rushing Share (22.7%)
- QB1 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+11.6)
- QB2 in Pass Success Rate (58.4%)
In short, Maye is quietly becoming one of the most valuable QBs in dynasty, ranking near the top in most efficiency metrics this season. Especially with his dual-threat ability, he should be one of the safer options at the QB position every week. As a result, I would comfortably rank him in the second tier of dynasty QBs, alongside Herbert and Joe Burrow.
Keon Coleman – Buffalo Bills, WR – Stock Down
Entering the year, there was some optimism that Keon Coleman could emerge as a reliable fantasy option in his second season. However, with Buffalo’s reliance on James Cook and the running game, Coleman’s opportunities have remained limited. Especially with Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid remaining heavily involved, Coleman has only averaged a 20% target share through the first seven weeks of the year. On a positive note, he leads all Bills WRs in Weighted Opportunity Rating (0.49), suggesting that his production could improve after the bye week if Buffalo decides to rely more on Josh Allen and the passing game. For now, Coleman will remain a low-floor flex option until we see his usage and volume improve.
Prospect Watch List
With a loaded RB class in the 2025 NFL Draft, Nicholas Singleton returned to Penn State for his Senior season, giving him another opportunity to improve his draft stock. Unfortunately, the opposite has happened so far this year as Singleton is currently on pace to set career lows in nearly every metric, averaging only 16% of Penn State’s offensive production. Instead, we have seen Kaytron Allen take over as their RB1, leading them in total touches and scrimmage yards this season. And even though Singleton did start his career with an 84th percentile true freshman campaign, his production has steadily tapered off over the last three seasons. While teams could still look past that and select him with day two capital, it is clear that players like Jeremiyah Love and Jonah Coleman should be ranked ahead of him. I would even argue that Darius Taylor could eventually emerge as the more valuable dynasty RB, especially if he can bounce back from his early-season injury. For now, Singleton’s dynasty stock will remain on the decline as he will likely remain the RB2 for the Nittany Lions. As a result, he currently ranks in the 80th percentile in my rookie model, well behind the most elite prospects in recent history.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football RBs this season:
