Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 8

Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!

Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:

• Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
• Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
• Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.

And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!

Rookie Opportunity Dashboard

To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:

• Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
• Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.

If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.

Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 7:

• It was a quiet week for rookie running backs as only two finished with over 5.0 Expected Fantasy Points (usage value) in Week 7. One of those running backs was Tyrone Tracy, who still led the Giants’ backfield in total opportunities (nine) and opportunity share (20%). With New York trailing the entire second half against the Eagles, they quickly abandoned the running game, limiting Tracy’s production for most of the game. It is worth noting that the Giants were likely easing Devin Singletary back into action after recovering from a groin injury.
• Like most of the Chiefs’ offense, Xavier Worthy had an inefficient game against a stout 49ers defense, finishing with -11.0 Fantasy Points Over Expected. However, this was by far the most that Worthy was involved, finishing with a career-high target share (32%), air yards share (62%), and targets per route run (31%). While it did not yield many fantasy points, Worthy’s improved volume coming out of the bye week should give us hope for a potential second-half breakout.
• Keon Coleman had a breakout game, setting season-highs with 11.4 Expected Fantasy Points and a 22% target share. However, keep in mind that Amari Cooper was still being eased into the offense as he only participated on 34% of the routes, and still commanded an elite 42% targets per route run. While Coleman’s breakout was encouraging, I expect Cooper to take over as the WR1 as soon as next week.
• Malik Nabers struggled as the entire Giants offense was inefficient against the Eagles. However, he still commanded an elite 30% target share and 55% air yards share, indicating that more productive weeks are ahead. I fully expect Nabers to bounce back with some favorable matchups coming up.
• Troy Franklin’s usage continues to trend in the right direction. Even though his route participation remained static week over week at 67%, he set a career-high in target share (24%) and Expected Fantasy Points (9.1). Through seven games, he now leads all Broncos receivers in targets per route run at 24%, continuing to command targets at an impressive rate.
• With Brandon Aiyuk tearing his ACL and Deebo Samuel dealing with pneumonia, Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing could walk into some additional volume going forward. While most dynasty managers will gravitate towards Pearsall, who led the team in route participation (86%) in Week 7, I am intrigued to see what Cowing can do with more snaps considering how productive he was at UTEP and Arizona. Keep in mind that he led San Francisco with a 25% targets per route run against the Chiefs, indicating that he was already heavily involved despite limited snaps.

Dynasty Stock Report

Brian Thomas Jr. – Jacksonville Jaguars, WR

Stock Up

Brian Thomas Jr. has seen his usage steadily improve over the last five weeks. While his production has fluctuated due to the inconsistency of the Jaguars’ offense, it is clear that BTJ has become one of the primary receiving options for Trevor Lawrence. Through the first seven games, Thomas leads Jacksonville’s wide receivers in:

Unlock Exclusive Tools + Bonus Episode

Join the FootClan

• Expected Fantasy Points (9.5 xFP)
• Target Share (21.3%)
• Air Yards Share (30.7%)
• Targets per Route Run (23%)

Specifically over the last five games, BTJ is the WR11 in half-PPR points with 14.2. However, while his production has been trending in the right direction since Week 3, he only ranks as the WR21 in Expected Fantasy Points (10.9) as the Jaguars continue to rely heavily on the running game (20th in Pass Rate Over Expected). Therefore, while he certainly has WR1 upside, BTJ still profiles as a low-end WR2 most weeks. But from a dynasty perspective, he is undeniably the most valuable player on the Jaguars’ offense as he continues to emerge as one of the most productive receivers in the 2024 class.

Brandon Aiyuk – San Francisco 49ers, WR

Stock Down

Injuries continue to pile up, especially for the 49ers who are now without Brandon Aiyuk for the rest of the season. After being tackled awkwardly by two defenders and leaving the game early, it was recently confirmed that Aiyuk tore both his ACL and MCL this past week. In addition, according to Matthew Betz’s Injury Recap, he could have also suffered additional damage to his cartilage and meniscus, which may lengthen his recovery. Unfortunately, this injury will heavily impact his dynasty value as he will now be out for the foreseeable future. Even before the injury, there were already concerns regarding Aiyuk’s usage as he was only the WR34 in Expected Points (9.9 xFP) through the first six weeks. The good news is that Aiyuk recently signed a long-term extension, locking him into the 49ers’ plans at least through the 2026 season. So even if next season starts off slowly, Aiyuk will only be 27 and should have plenty of opportunities to bounce back once he is fully healthy. For now, rebuilding dynasty managers should take this as an opportunity to potentially acquire one of the best route runners at a significant discount.

Caleb Williams – Chicago Bears, QB

Stock Up

It started slowly for the Chicago Bears, but they have quickly picked it up as Caleb Williams continues to improve and acclimate to the league. Especially over the last five weeks, he ranks as one of the most accurate and efficient quarterbacks. As a result, the Bears have won their last three games as the entire offense has benefited from Wiliams’ elevated quarterback play. In fact, since Week 3, Williams is the:

• QB5 in EPA per Pass Attempt (0.34)
• QB7 in Pass Success Rate (53%)
• QB5 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+6.9)
• QB9 in Fantasy Points per Game (20.3)

Those are truly impressive efficiency numbers as he ranks among some of the best quarterbacks in the league. Yes, he did have some favorable matchups that likely boosted his production, but it was still encouraging to see Williams steadily improve. For now, I would still view him as a high-upside, weekly QB2 as the Bears continue to rely on the running game, slightly lowering Williams’ floor. From a dynasty perspective, he should be firmly entrenched as mid-tier QB1, but that could quickly change if Williams continues to perform efficiently coming out of their bye week.

Greg Dulcich – Denver Broncos, TE

Stock Down

Heading into the 2024 campaign, the Denver Broncos were entering a new era. With a rookie quarterback set to lead their offense, there was some hope that Greg Dulcich could be an integral part of their offense now that he is fully recovered from his hamstring injury. Unfortunately, the exact opposite has happened as Dulcich has been a healthy scratch from the active roster over the last three weeks. Even before that, he only averaged an 8% target share, struggling to command consistent opportunities in the Broncos’ offense. As a result, Sean Payton has instead relied on Lucas Krull, who has led the Denver tight ends with a 58% route participation since Week 5. Even if Dulcich were active, their passing attack has relied heavily on their wide receivers, which likely would have limited any opportunities for a breakout season. For now, Dulcich can be dropped in most shallow dynasty leagues as he remains unstartable for the foreseeable future.

Prospect Watch List

While Ashton Jeanty has rightfully received most of the attention, the strength of the 2025 class is defined by its depth at the running back position. That includes Omarion Hampton, a 6’0” and 220-pound running back who has been a focal point for the Tar Heels’ offense over the last two years. As you can see above, in 2023, Hampton accounted for about 28% of the entire offense (yards and touchdowns) and averaged 1.80 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play. To put that into perspective, his sophomore production ranks in the 85th percentile among all drafted running backs since 2013. In addition, Hampton was also one of the most elusive and dynamic running backs, leading the nation in yards after contact with 1,072.

Get the 2026 Ultimate Draft Kit!

Preorder the 2026 UDK

Even though he already had an impressive breakout campaign, there was still room for improvement. Ideally, we want to see running backs exceed 2.00 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play as that typically denotes elite production. And so far this season, Hampton is setting career highs across across the board, averaging a 30% Dominator Rating in seven games. His 2.03 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play is equally impressive, which ranks in the 85th percentile since 2013. The only glaring negative in his profile this year is his efficiency, averaging only 5.9 yards per touch. Regardless, assuming North Carolina continues to lean on him, he will likely profile as a top-five running back in next year’s class. For context, if we account for his current trajectory, my rookie model will rank Hampton as an 83rd-percentile rookie prospect. And while that likely ranks as the RB5 in next year’s class, he would have been the RB2 behind Jonathon Brooks in this year’s draft. Keep an eye on Hampton’s draft stock as he will likely be a top 12 pick in dynasty drafts next year. 

For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top running backs through Week 8 of the CFB season: