Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 7
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 6:
- After a slow start to the season, Ashton Jeanty has now finished as an RB1 in usage value (Expected Fantasy Points) in each of the last three games. In Week 6, he received truly elite volume, finishing with over 20.0 Expected Fantasy Points and an impressive 49.1% opportunity share. With one of the most favorable schedules going forward, Jeanty should continue to produce RB1 numbers.
- Even with the return of Tyrone Tracy, Cam Skattebo remained the lead RB for the Giants, accounting for nearly 32% of their opportunities. He finished with over 16.0 Expected Fantasy Points, dominating the high-value opportunities for New York. In fact, he accounted for 100% of the Giants’ rush attempts inside the five-yard line, converting them into three TDs. If Week 6 was any indication, this backfield belongs to Skattebo for the foreseeable future.
- It was a career game for Matthew Golden, setting season-highs in target share (19.2%), Expected Fantasy Points (9.6), and Fantasy Points Over Expected (+2.1). While it is from elite usage, Golden’s role in the Packers’ offense continues to improve. For now, he will remain a low-floor flex option as he still trails Romeo Doubs on the depth chart.
Cory Knowlton-Imagn Images
- Tetairoa McMillan had by far the most efficient game of his career, finishing with +8.5 Fantasy Points Over Expected. And while he only received five total opportunities, he still accounted for 23.8% of Carolina’s targets and 38% of their air yards. With McMillan operating as their lead receiver, it was only a matter of time until he finished as a WR1 in fantasy production.
- With Emeka Egbuka leaving the game early, Tez Johnson set a career-high in route participation with 84%. He finished with a modest 13% target share, but with an elite 36.4% air yards share. Assuming he continues to receive additional opportunities with Egbuka, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin potentially unavailable, Johnson will hold some flex-level upside in Week 7.
- This was quietly one of the most productive weeks for rookie TEs, as three of them finished within the top 10 in usage value. For Oronde Gadsden, this was a career-high in target share (21%) and air yards share (19.5%). He also received a season-high 77% route participation, despite the return of Will Dissly. With all signs pointing to Gadsden assuming the TE1 role, he should be a startable option in one of the most efficient passing offenses in the league.
- While Dillon Gabriel’s volume should have resulted in a much more productive performance, he instead finished with one of the most inefficient games by a QB this year. For context, his -14.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected is the fourth-lowest performance by a QB this season, behind only Russell Wilson (Week 3), Geno Smith (Week 2), and Joe Flacco (Week 4). Ironically, Flacco’s performance in Week 4 is what ultimately led to his benching and Gabriel’s first opportunity as the starter.
- On the other hand, Jaxson Dart continues to showcase QB1 upside as he remains heavily involved on the ground. With significant regression from his Week 5 performance, Dart finished as a QB1 for the second time in his last three games.
Dynasty Stock Report
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Seattle Seahawks, WR – Stock Up
After an impressive breakout campaign in his second season, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has elevated his game to another level. As the unquestioned WR1 for the Seahawks, JSN is currently on pace to crush his Sophomore numbers and set career-highs across multiple metrics. Through six weeks, Smith-Njigba is averaging:
- 18.0 Half-PPR Points
- 36.4% Target Share
- 50.5% Air Yards Share
- 34% Targets per Route Run
Those are exceptional usage metrics that only a select few WRs have achieved in recent years. For context, since 2013, only four players have averaged over 50% of their team’s air yards for an entire season: Alshon Jeffery, A.J. Brown, and Malik Nabers. Smith-Njigba has the potential to join this very short list. In addition, he is on track to become one of only two WRs to achieve a 35% target share for a full season since 2013, with DeAndre Hopkins being the other player to reach that milestone. In summary, Smith-Njigba is having an outstanding season. At just 23 years old, he is rapidly establishing himself as one of the top WRs in dynasty formats.
Travis Hunter – Jacksonville Jaguars, WR – Stock Down
Entering his rookie year, there was plenty of uncertainty regarding Travis Hunter’s offensive role. While he clearly had the skillset to make an impact on both sides of the field, dynasty managers (in non-IDP leagues) were hoping that he would spend most of his rookie year playing the WR position. Over the course of six weeks, we have seen his route participation steadily improve, ultimately resulting in a career-high 84% in Week 6. However, after a 23.4% target share in Week 1, Hunter has failed to account for more than 16% of Jacksonville’s targets since his first game. With Brian Thomas Jr. as their WR1 and with Dyami Brown still consistently involved, Hunter’s production will continue to be limited in his rookie year.
Daniel Jones – Indianapolis Colts, QB – Stock Up
One of the most surprising storylines from a dynasty perspective has been Daniel Jones‘s bounce-back campaign. While many expected him to be the backup for Anthony Richardson, Jones has emerged as the QB1 for the Colts and has been the driving force behind their 5-1 start this season. In fact, Jones is currently one of the most efficient QBs in the league, ranking as the QB6 in Success Rate (56.7%) and QB8 in EPA per Attempt (0.31). To put that into perspective, the chart above places Jones in the top-right quadrant alongside some of the best passers in the league. In addition, he has been equally effective on the ground, on pace to finish as the QB6 in EPA per Rush Attempt (0.48). In short, Jones has been consistently efficient this year, resulting in productive campaigns for Jonathan Taylor, Michael Pittman, and Tyler Warren. And even though he is only on a one-year deal with Indianapolis, I would not be surprised if Jones managed to secure himself a short-term extension, considering how productive he has been to start the year. In that case, he should be valued as a dynasty QB2, as he will likely remain a startable option for the remainder of the year.
Cam Ward – Tennessee Titans, QB – Stock Down
While Daniel Jones’ dynasty value continues to trend in the right direction, Cam Ward has experienced the opposite so far this year. We can clearly see that reflected in the chart above, as Ward is currently one of the most inefficient QBs in the league, sitting in the bottom-left quadrant alongside Russell Wilson, Dillon Gabriel, and Joe Flacco. That has led to a disappointing start from a fantasy football perspective, with Ward failing to rank within the top 20 in every game this season. On a positive note, the Titans recently fired Brian Callahan, which could infuse some much-needed change for their team. This also opens the door for a more creative play-caller to join them in the off-season, which could lead to a second-year breakout for Ward similar to what we’re seeing from Drake Maye and Caleb Wiliams this season. As a result, even with his dynasty value trending in the wrong direction, Ward still holds plenty of upside as a potential trade target for dynasty teams looking to rebuild this year.
Prospect Watch List
Jeremiyah Love is currently projected to be one of the first RBs selected in next year’s draft. While I was still hesitant to rank him that high due to his underwhelming production profile, Love has taken a significant step forward this season as he continues to cement his value as a top-three RB in the 2026 class. Through Week 7, Love is setting career-highs across the board, averaging the highest receiving yards market share (9.1%), yards per team play (1.83), and total dominator rating (31%) of his young career. From an efficiency standpoint, Love’s 47% EPA Success Rate this season highlights his consistent and positive impact on Notre Dame’s offense, leading their backfield in multiple metrics. And even with the slower start to his career (playing behind Audric Estime and splitting touches with Jadarian Price), Love still projects as a 92nd percentile prospect in my rookie model after we adjust for strength of schedule and projected capital. With multiple teams looking for a long-term option at RB, Love could be an immediate three-down playmaker at the next level. As a result, dynasty managers should keep an eye on his production this season as Love projects to be one of the top prospects in next year’s dynasty drafts.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football RBs this season:
