Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 7
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 6:
- With James Cook unavailable, Ray Davis assumed the RB1 role for the Bills. He accounted for 41% of the team’s opportunities and finished the game with an elite 17.4 Expected Fantasy Points. In other words, he was a true workhorse RB1 in usage value. More importantly, he looked impressive as a rusher, consistently breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact throughout the game. While Cook will remain the lead running back, it will be interesting to see if Davis has earned an expanded role after an effective performance in Week 6.
- Bucky Irving assumed a more featured role with Rachaad White inactive, setting a career-high 11.6 Expected Fantasy Points. However, as you can see above, he finished with only a 22.5% opportunity share as Sean Tucker was a significant part of the Buccaneers’ gameplan. Surprisingly, Tucker finished with a higher usage value (12.7 xFP), while scoring +20.1 Fantasy Points Over Expected. With Tucker and Irving flashing significant upside in recent weeks, this backfield could quickly become a three-way committee if and when White is back in the lineup.
- Kimani Vidal had an impressive breakout performance, finishing the week as an RB2 with 12.1 half-PPR points. However, keep in mind that most of his production came on one reception, primarily driven by efficiency as he scored +6.6 Fantasy Points Over Expected. As a result, his usage value equated to only 5.5 Expected Fantasy Points, which ranked outside of the top 36. If anything, Week 6 confirmed that JK Dobbins will be the featured RB1 as he finished the game with three times the usage value (18.5 xFP) as Vidal.
- While Quentin Johnston has been heavily involved this season, Ladd McConkey has been the WR1 for Justin Herbert through six weeks. In every game so far this year, McConkey has received a +20% target share and +20% air yards share, leading the Chargers’ wide receivers in both metrics. However, because the Chargers are typically a run-heavy offense, McConkey’s usage value has consistently ranked outside of the top 30…until this past week. With Herbert setting a season-high in pass attempts, McConkey finished with 11.4 Expected Fantasy Points. While this was likely an outlier, we could see McConkey eventually become a consistent WR2 if the Chargers decide to throw the ball at a higher rate.
- With Chris Olave ruled out early due to a concussion, Bub Means received an expanded opportunity as the WR2 for the Saints, setting a season-high in route participation (71%), targets per route run (24%), and Expected Fantasy Points (10.9). With Olave very likely to miss their next matchup, Means could remain a flex option for one more week, especially in deeper leagues.
- While he likely remains unstartable due to his lower usage, Troy Franklin’s stock continues to improve as he just set a season-high 68% route participation and 10.6 half-PPR points. Courtland Sutton remains the WR1 for the Broncos, though it has been encouraging to see Franklin’s snaps and routes trending in the right direction in recent weeks.
- Over the last two weeks, Ja’Tavion Sanders has been the TE1 for the Carolina Panthers, leading them with 73% route participation and 20% targets per route run. As a result, Sanders was a borderline TE1 in Week 6, finishing with 7.4 half-PPR points and 6.9 Expected Fantasy Points. Boasting an intriguing athletic and receiving profile coming out of Texas, Sanders always had the talent to produce in the NFL. Now that he is entrenched as Carolina’s TE1, he could be a streamable option in favorable matchups.
- Drake Maye and Spencer Rattler made their debuts as starting quarterbacks in Week 6. While Rattler had his moments in a high-scoring game against the Buccaneers, it was Maye who had the more efficient game. In fact, Maye was the QB10 in Success Rate (48.9%), finishing the week as a borderline QB1 with +3.8 Fantasy Points Over Expected. While he does have a favorable matchup in Week 7 against the Jaguars, Maye faces a tougher test the following weeks against the Jets, Titans, and Bears – three defenses that rank in the top 12 in Dropback EPA per Play allowed this season.
Dynasty Stock Report
Brock Bowers – Las Vegas Raiders, TE
Stock Up
After a productive career at Georgia, Brock Bowers was the unquestioned TE1 for the 2024 class. Ranking in the 99th percentile in my rookie model, it was only a matter of time until he emerged in the NFL. To no surprise, it only took a couple of games for Bowers to assert himself as a top-tier option for fantasy football. Even though the Raiders remain one of the most inefficient offenses in the league, Bowers has received enough volume and usage to remain a TE1. Through six games, Bowers is currently the:
- TE4 in Target Share (22.5%)
- TE4 in Air Yards Share (19.8%)
- TE1 in Yards After the Catch (204)
- TE3 in Expected Fantasy Points (9.8)
As you can see in the chart above, Bowers has been an elite TE1 in usage value in four of his first six games. Keep in mind that he continues to produce despite receiving targets from Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. Just imagine what Bowers could become if and when the Raiders eventually find their franchise quarterback. Despite that, Bowers should already be in the conversation as the TE1 in dynasty football, making him one of the most valuable assets for fantasy managers.
Trey Benson – Arizona Cardinals, RB
Stock Down
Trey Benson was one of only four running backs selected with day one or two capital in this year’s NFL draft. Despite his premium draft capital, Benson entered the league with a slightly flawed collegiate profile as he never truly broke out at either Oregon or Florida State. His most productive season came as a senior in 2023, averaging 24% of Florida State’s entire offensive production. For context, the most elite college running backs average around 30% of their team’s production, ideally earlier in their careers. As a result, while he was a top-three running back in a weaker 2024 class, Benson was far from an elite prospect. That brings us to his production to start his career, receiving inconsistent opportunities and clearly playing behind James Conner through Week 6. While it is still early in the season, it is concerning that Benson is only the RB70 in Expected Fantasy Points with 4.1 xFP. That could still change as the year progresses. Until then, Benson’s dynasty stock continues to trend in the wrong direction as he remains the RB2 in the Cardinals offense.
Tyrone Tracy – New York Giants, RB
Stock Up
With the recent injury to Devin Singletary, Tyrone Tracy has stepped up as the RB1 for the Giants over the last two weeks. In that timespan, Tracy has been an RB1 in both usage value and production, averaging 16.6 half-PPR points. He accounted for 33% of the team’s total opportunities, while also averaging a 12% target share and 56% route participation in his last two games. More importantly, Tracy has been a far more effective rusher and receiver than Singletary this season. If we take a look at their Expected Points Added (cumulative impact on the game), Tracy leads with +0.04 EPA per opportunity. Despite playing four games as the starter, Singletary’s EPA per opportunity is only -0.15. In other words, Tracy has been the more impactful running back on the Giants’ offense. Therefore, while Singletary will likely return to the lineup this week, I would be shocked if Tracy did not remain an integral part of the Giants’ offense going forward.
Christian McCaffrey – San Francisco 49ers, RB
Stock Down
What should dynasty managers do with Christian McCaffrey? While uncertainty remains about when he could return this year, reports indicate that he could be available after their Week 9 bye. Assuming he does not suffer a setback in his recovery, we can likely expect him to return sometime in November. Knowing that he could still return this year, should dynasty managers hold onto McCaffrey or trade him away now while he still holds value? Surprisingly, while his dynasty value has declined, he is still valued as the dynasty RB10 on Keep Trade Cut. This would indicate that there is still a trade market for McCaffrey. As a dynasty manager, I would take this opportunity to trade away a running back who is approaching the end of his prime. In my dynasty lifecycle series, I highlighted that most running backs experience a sizable decline in production starting at age 28. In addition, only 16% of top-24 running back seasons have come from running backs ages 29 or older. Considering McCaffrey has already shown signs of slowing down, now might be the perfect time to part ways. So while it may be tempting to hold onto him even as a contender, I would consider trading him away for a first-round pick or even a younger, unproven running back such as Jonathon Brooks.
Prospect Watch List
While Colston Loveland is likely the consensus TE1 in the 2025 class, Harold Fannin Jr. out of Bowling Green State has made an impressive case to join that conversation. Over the last two seasons, Fannin has been a focal point of the Falcons’ offense, generating absurd production numbers since 2023. As you can see above, he averaged over 30% of the team’s receiving production (dominator rating) as a true sophomore, finishing the year with an elite 2.13 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. For context, that would rank in the 98th percentile among all drafted tight ends since 2013. His sophomore numbers alone already make him an intriguing prospect from an analytical standpoint.
Fast forward to his 2024 campaign and Fannin is on pace to have one of the most productive seasons by a tight end in recent history. Nearly every one of his production metrics ranks in the 99th percentile, accounting for well over half of the team’s receiving production. To provide some context, we have yet to see a drafted tight end average over 3.00 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt in a single season. If he can maintain his efficiency, Fannin could be the first one to check that box. Unfortunately, his size is one of the more glaring negatives in his profile. While Fannin is an intriguing athlete who can accelerate and break tackles in the open field, he only weighs 230 pounds, significantly lighter than most in-line tight ends. That raises some concerns about his ability to block effectively at the next level. However, that may not impact his dynasty outlook as long as he finds himself on a team willing to leverage his versatility on offense. Whether he lines up in the slot, in the backfield, or as a traditional in-line tight end, Fannin can be a legitimate threat as a receiver. As a result, when we factor in his current production, his projected athletic profile, and his strength of schedule, Fannin is currently an 88th-percentile prospect in my rookie model. Assuming his stock continues to improve, he will likely be a top-20 pick in dynasty rookie drafts next season.
For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top tight ends through Week 7 of the CFB season:
