Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 7
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report!
This article will highlight the most important storylines from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in a dynasty league, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s dynasty value beyond this year.
To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 6
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) are synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between each player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually regress closer to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team
Rookie Observations after Week 6:
- If you started Bijan Robinson, you may have been slightly disappointed by his 10.5 half-PPR point performance. However, this was one of Bijan’s highest usage values so far this season at 18.3 Expected Points. That number ranked well within the top five at his position as he accounted for nearly 29% of the team’s opportunities. This was also the first game this season in which Bijan totaled over 2% of the team’s air yards. To start the season, the Falcons have mainly utilized him as a receiver behind the line of scrimmage. In this game, however, he a received an average depth of target of 5.0 yards – a significant improvement from previous games.
- This may be Trey Palmer’s first appearance in our Rookie Dashboard as he set a career-high target share with 18.9% in Week 6. His air yards share was especially impressive at 34.8%, finishing within the top five this week in total air yards at the wide receiver position (154). Chris Godwin and Mike Evans will remain the top two options for the Bucs, though it seems Palmer has clearly established himself as the WR3.
- We have seen Gardner Minshew throw the ball 138 times this season. Of his available targets, Josh Downs has averaged a solid 21.4% target share and 16.1% air yards share. While Michael Pittman remains the WR1 for this team (by a significant margin), Downs should still command flex-level volume most weeks.
- It was a quiet week for Puka Nacua with 4.6 half-PPR points. Despite that, he averaged a 33.3% target share and 19.3% air yards share. His market share numbers remain very high even with Kupp back in the lineup. So while it was an unproductive week (by his standards), Nacua should remain in your lineups as a WR2 with WR1 upside.
- Considering the hype surrounding Jordan Addison entering last week, it was a slightly disappointing performance considering he finished outside of the top 40 in Expected Points (7.6). He still led all Vikings receivers in fantasy usage and was the WR9 in Expected Points in Week 5. Therefore, I fully expect Addison to bounce back in the coming weeks as he remains the WR1 for the Vikings with Justin Jefferson on injured reserve.
- Coming out of the bye week, Jaxon Smith-Njigba averaged a career-high route participation of 81%. Despite that, he received the second-lowest targets per route run (13%) and target share (13.5%) of his career, as he continues to be limited by the presence of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf. While I still believe in the talent and draft capital, it is becoming increasingly evident that JSN’s opportunity could remain limited in his rookie year.
- At this point, Sam LaPorta should remain in your lineup as a TE1. Over the last six weeks, we have seen him produce with both volume and efficiency, ranking as the TE3 in Targets Share (21.9%) and TE5 in Expected Fantasy Points (9.3). In addition, he is also the TE2 in Targets Per Route Run (25% – minimum 30 routes), behind only Travis Kelce this season. So while he only produced 5.6 half-PPR points in Week 6, his usage values continue to stand out.
Dynasty Stock Report
D’Andre Swift’s usage was unpredictable during his time with the Detroit Lions, as he never fully dominated the backfield snaps and opportunities in his first three seasons. Despite the inconsistent workload, Swift still finished as a top-20 running back in points per game each year, partially relying on his efficiency to produce. As a result, there was a lot of optimism when he was traded to Philadelphia as the backfield was wide open for the taking. And over the last five games, Swift has quickly established himself as the RB1 for the Eagles. In that timespan, he ranks as the:
- RB6 in Expected Fantasy Points (16.4)
- RB15 in Opportunity Share (31.9%)
- RB9 in Target Share (14.9%)
- RB10 in Half-PPR Points (16.7)
In addition, Swift also leads all Eagles running backs in route participation (55%) and attempts inside the five-yard line (61%), taking full command of the high-value opportunities within that backfield. Keep in mind, while this is his fourth season, Swift is only 24 years old and is still relatively young for a running back. The uncertainty in his dynasty value stems purely from his contract situation, as he is in the final year of his rookie deal. Despite that, I would still comfortably rank him as a top 15 dynasty running back, with the assumption that he remains healthy and that the Eagles are likely to re-sign him next off-season.
Rashod Bateman was one of my favorite prospects in the 2021 class after producing at an elite rate at the University of Minnesota. Unfortunately, his breakout never materialized as he struggled through multiple injuries to start his NFL career. Over the last two seasons, Bateman has only played 18 games as he missed extensive time due to a foot and groin injury. While he did flash some upside last season, finishing as a WR2 or better in his first two games, Bateman has taken a step back in his third campaign. His route participation is only at 54% as he continues to rotate with Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor. Instead, Zay Flowers has clearly taken over the WR1 role for the Ravens as he leads them in a variety of volume metrics. As a result, Bateman’s dynasty stock continues to decline, clearly operating as the WR3 (at best) in this offense.
There has been a lot of hype surrounding Sam LaPorta, who has rightfully established himself as a dynasty TE1. However, Michael Mayer was an equally impressive prospect coming out of Notre Dame, leading this TE class in weighted dominator rating at 24.8% (percentage of their collegiate team’s total receiving production). Unlike LaPorta, who was an immediate contributor for the Lions, Mayer started the season in a rotation with Austin Hooper, who led all Raiders’ tight ends in route participation in their first four games. However, over the last two weeks, we have seen Mayer’s role evolve as he continues to ramp up in usage and volume. And in Week 6, he finally had a breakout game, finishing with career-highs in:
- Target Share (19.3%)
- Air Yards Sahre (19.5%)
- Route Participation (67%)
- Targets Per Route Run (27%)
In addition, as you can see below, his usage value of 8.8 Expected Points is a significant improvement from his first five games. Considering Hooper is set to be a free agent next off-season, it only makes sense for the Raiders to develop Mayer as their future TE1. Combined with his second-round capital and elite collegiate profile, I expect his dynasty stock to only improve going forward.
Van Jefferson – Atlanta Falcons, WR
With the return of Cooper Kupp in Week 5, Van Jefferson was relegated to the WR4 role as he only participated on 2% of the routes against the Eagles. As a result, Jefferson was traded the following week to the Atlanta Falcons, which is unlikely to be a more favorable situation for the fourth-year receiver. Not only do they already have an established receiving corps with Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Jonnu Smith, but they are also the most run-heavy team in the league. With Bijan Robinson also accounting for a sizable number of opportunities, there is very little room for Jefferson to make an impact. And considering he was unable to carve out a meaningful role for the Rams while Kupp was on injured reserve, he will likely remain on your bench for the remainder of the year.
Prospect Watch List
My optimism for the 2024 running back class continues to wane with each passing week of college football. However, the wide receivers continue to impress me, as several potential 2024 prospects have elevated their game this season. One of those players is Troy Franklin, a third-year wide receiver at Oregon. At 6’3″ and 187 pounds, Franklin has the length and athleticism to be an effective receiver in all areas of the field. In addition, one of the most impressive aspects of his game is his speed variation, as he is extremely shifty and explosive both in his route running and after the catch.
From a production standpoint, Franklin had his breakout campaign as a sophomore as he and Bo Nix connected for 891 receiving yards and nine touchdowns last year. That equated to an impressive 24% Receiving Yards Market Share and 2.06 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (RY/TPA). However, there was always room for improvement as we generally want to see wide receivers cross the elite 2.75 RY/TPA threshold at least once in their collegiate careers. Through six games, Franklin is currently on that trajectory, setting career highs in multiple production metrics. In fact, he is one of only nine Power 5 receivers currently averaging over 3.00 RY/TPA. Assuming he can maintain his current production, Franklin should be locked in a second-round pick in next year’s class. And considering he will be an early-declare receiver with a positive production profile, he should be a borderline first-round pick in dynasty rookie drafts next off-season.