Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 7
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report!
In this weekly series, I will be highlighting the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective. While most of this article will focus on NFL players, this piece will also include a brand new segment called the Prospect Watch List. My goal is to provide you with an overview of some of the best prospects entering the league to help gauge the potential value of your dynasty picks. Since there are quite a few prospects to follow, I will focus on a different position each week. In today’s piece, we will take a look at the most productive Tight Ends in College Football. In short, you can expect the following segments every week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of rookie performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 6
To keep the dashboard concise, I will only be highlighting the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position every week. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points or xFP is a value that signifies volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the difference between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually regress closer to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on for fantasy
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team
If you would like me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Observations after Week 6:
- Breece Hall’s RB1 usage continues as he finished as the RB9 in Expected Fantasy Points (14.1) this past week. This marks the fourth week in a row in which Hall has received top-12 usage. His xFP has actually declined slightly over the last two weeks, as he’s averaged only two targets per game compared to an 8.5 average from Weeks 3 and 4. However, while the Jets have relied on him more as a rusher, his efficiency has improved drastically since Week 5, averaging +8.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected (RB4). Regardless, Hall should retain weekly RB1 upside as long as this trend continues.
- In the first start of his career, Brian Robinson Jr. took over the backfield, accounting for 60.7% of the team’s rushing attempts and 34% of their total opportunities. His lack of involvement in the passing game is slightly concerning, however, since it does limit his upside. If the Commanders find themselves trailing and are unable to establish the run, Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic may be the more involved running backs in this offense. But considering the barren landscape at the running back position, Robinson should at the very least be a flex option for your dynasty teams moving forward.
- Romeo Doubs has received a +20% target share in three of his last four games. But against an improving Jets secondary, every Packers wide receiver struggled to produce outside of Allen Lazard. Regardless, Doubs should continue to be heavily involved in this Packers offense, which still holds plenty of fantasy value despite their inefficiencies.
- Alec Pierce has finished with double-digit Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) in the last two games. While his target share has fluctuated (only 12.5% this past week), he continues to receive a significant amount of Matt Ryan’s air yards. This should lead to explosive plays more often than not, as evidenced by his 32-yard touchdown reception from Week 6.
- Wan’Dale Robinson is back! After suffering an injury in Week 1, Robinson led all Giants wide receivers in target share at 16% (tied with Marcus Johnson) and scored the most fantasy points at 11.2. Keep in mind, he accomplished this despite finishing last among Giants receivers in snap share at 23%. Robinson clearly has the upside to be this team’s WR1, so if you are looking to acquire him for your dynasty team, NOW is the time to send out those trade offers.
- Tyquan Thornton received a season-high 16.1% target share and was by far the most efficient rookie wide receiver, scoring +9.1 Fantasy Points Over Expected. His usage and snaps continue to improve, which is something to monitor as Mac Jones will likely return from his ankle injury in the coming weeks.
- Daniel Bellinger might be a streamable tight end going forward. He received a +20% target share for the second time this season, finishing the week as the TE7 in half-PPR leagues. Behind Saquon Barkley and Wan’Dale Robinson, it would not surprise me if Bellinger operated as the 3rd receiving option going forward.
- Jake Ferguson looked impressive as he filled in for Dalton Schultz, who was surprisingly inactive this past week. Ferguson received a 16.2% target share and was the TE8 in half-PPR points (12.0). Assuming Schultz is still battling a knee injury, Ferguson could remain heavily involved in this offense.
Dynasty Stock Report
Saquon Barkley – New York Giants, RB
With so many injuries at the running back position, Saquon Barkley has been one of the bright spots for fantasy managers this year. While the last couple of seasons were far from positive, there was always hope that his second-year after his ACL surgery would be far more efficient and productive. In fact, our injury expert Matthew Betz outlined this in detail in his off-season article highlighting the impact of ACL surgeries on running backs. Through six weeks, Barkley seems to be much closer to his pre-ACL levels of production as he is currently averaging a career-high in rushing attempts per game (19.8) and the second-highest yards per touch of his career (5.5). From a usage standpoint, Barkley is currently the:
- RB3 in Opportunity Share (41.7%)
- RB5 in Target Share (17.2%)
- RB6 in Expected Fantasy Points (15.9)
- RB7 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+3.1)
From a dynasty perspective, he should be firmly entrenched as a top-5 running back after experiencing a slight decline in ADP last season. Whether you should hold on to him or trade him at peak value depends on the status of your dynasty team. If you are a contender, I would hold on to Barkley as he should help you win a title this year. If you are outside of the playoff picture, now might be the time to trade him away before he reaches the age cliff for running backs (generally ages 27 or 28). Especially if you can recoup his value in the form of multiple 2023 first-round picks, you might have a chance to replace him with an impressive running back class entering the league next year. It is important to note that Barkley did appear to reinjure his shoulder in Week 6, eventually returning later in the game, so that will be something to monitor going forward.
Marquise Brown – Arizona Cardinals, WR
Injuries are the worst part of football. After losing both Javonte Williams and Rashaad Penny over the last couple of weeks, Marquise Brown is set to miss extended time due to a foot fracture suffered last week. It is extremely unfortunate as Brown was clearly operating as the WR1 for Kyler Murray to start the season. Even after his breakout campaign with the Baltimore Ravens last season, he was in the midst of an even better year, setting career highs in a variety of metrics:
- Target Share (26.3% – WR18)
- Air Yards Share (40.5% – WR5)
- Expected Fantasy Points (14.4 – WR6)
At only age 25 and as one of the most consistent wide receivers to start the season, Brown was quickly approaching dynasty WR1 territory before his injury. While the initial reports suggest that he could return later this year, he may not be available until much closer to the fantasy playoffs. If the Cardinals are already eliminated from the postseason once Brown is ready to return, it would not surprise me if they shut him down entirely. Per our injury expert Matthew Betz, the good news is that this injury will not require surgery, which means Brown should bounce back next season as he approaches the final year of his rookie deal.
Kenneth Walker III – Seattle Seahawks, RB
With Rashaad Penny out for the year, Kenneth Walker was next in line to assume the lead running back role for the Seahawks’ offense. Reminiscent of his final collegiate season at Michigan State, Walker showcased his explosiveness this past week. He generated four explosive runs (10+ rushing yards) against the Cardinals, one of which he took into the end zone. And from a usage standpoint, there was no question he was the RB1 for this team. Walker accounted for 91.3% of the Seahawks’ running back rush attempts while averaging an impressive 40% opportunity share.
For fantasy, we can see below that Walker was well above the RB12 threshold in Expected Fantasy Points with 14.9 xFP. In other words, assuming this type of usage continues, Walker should be treated as a top-12 running back in all league formats. In dynasty leagues, he should already be considered an RB1. An argument could also be made that only Jonathan Taylor, Breece Hall, and D’Andre Swift hold more value long-term, especially with multiple running backs approaching the production age cliff over the next couple of years. Of course, it is tough to truly evaluate a player after their first game as a starter. However, based on his film, production profile, and draft capital, Walker should be one of the most valuable dynasty running backs for the foreseeable future.
Cam Akers – Los Angeles Rams, RB
One of the most disappointing running backs this season has been Cam Akers, who has finished outside of the top 24 in each of his first five games. Even in Week 2 when he received a season-high 18 opportunities, he only managed to put together 7.2 half-PPR points. After a series of disappointing games, Akers was a healthy scratch in Week 6 as the Rams decided to move forward with Darrell Henderson as their RB1. Per multiple reports, the Rams are fielding offers for Akers, and his future with the team seems to be all but over. While there are teams that could use an improvement at the running back position, such as the Denver Broncos or Atlanta Falcons, it is difficult to envision many situations where Akers would improve his dynasty ADP. At this point, fantasy managers are better off holding on to Akers as they would just be trading him at the lowest value of his young career.
Prospect Watch List: Week 7 – Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid – Utah
A few weeks ago, I highlighted Michael Mayer’s potential as an immediate producer for dynasty teams due to his impressive production profile. A player who is currently outproducing him in a couple of metrics is Dalton Kincaid out of Utah, a five-year prospect set to declare for the 2023 draft. This comes after Kincaid had an absolutely dominant game in which he set a single-game career-high in receiving yards (234) and receptions (16) in Utah’s win over USC.
While he is currently having the best season of his career, we also saw flashes of production last year when Kincaid averaged 1.35 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt in 2021. Even back in his days at San Diego (FCS), he totaled 835 receiving yards and eight touchdowns in his sophomore season. In short, throughout his career, Kincaid has displayed an intriguing receiving skill set that could make him an impactful fantasy tight end at the next level. As of right now, the NFL Mock Draft Database has him only projected as a 5th-round pick, which would be far from ideal for his fantasy outlook. However, Kincaid’s stock should be on the rise if he can maintain his elite production for the rest of the year.
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