Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 6
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 5:
- Cam Skattebo once again finished within the top 10 in Expected Fantasy Points. Even with his inefficiencies on the ground, as long as he receives RB1 usage, Skattebo should remain a weekly top-20 option in your fantasy lineups.
- For the second week in a row, Ashton Jeanty has been an RB1 in usage value. A significant reason for that is his improved usage in the passing game, setting a career high in target share with 19.4% against the Colts. The Raiders have one of the most favorable schedules for RBs to close out the season, which means Jeanty should find plenty of success as the year progresses.
Peter Casey-Imagn Images
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt finally saw the lion’s share of the Commanders’ backfield opportunities as he finished with a career-high 11.3 Expected Fantasy Points and +14.7 Fantasy Points Over Expected. Assuming this was a preview of their backfield rotation going forward, Croskey-Merritt could be a weekly RB2 for the rest of the season.
- Just when we thought Woody Marks was taking over the backfield, Nick Chubb led the Texans in usage value and total opportunities in Week 5. Especially after finishing outside of the top 30 in usage value, Marks will remain a risky start in all formats as long as Chubb is in the lineup.
- In Week 5, Dillon Gabriel‘s first start saw him heavily favor David Njoku and Isaiah Bond. They were the only Browns players to command over 20% of the team’s target share. For Bond, this marked career highs in target share (21.9%), air yards share (45.2%), and Expected Fantasy Points (11.7).
- Jack Bech did not light up the stat sheet, but he did receive a season-high route participation at 46%. In addition, he also commanded the highest target share of his young career at 13.9%. While he remains unstartable in most league formats, Bech is trending in the right direction heading into Week 6.
- Mason Taylor might be a weekly TE1 option based on his recent surge in usage. After setting a career-high in target share (25.9%) last week against the Dolphins, Taylor set the bar even higher with a 27.2% target share in Week 5. More importantly, he finished the week as the TE1 in usage value with 17.1 Expected Fantasy Points. And with Justin Fields back in the lineup, Taylor is quickly becoming a startable TE in all formats.
Peter Casey-Imagn Images
- For the second week in a row, Jaxson Dart has been a borderline QB1 in usage value, as he continues to push the ball downfield with the eighth-highest air yards per attempt (8.4) in Week 5. On top of that, he once again finished with over five rushing attempts and 50 rushing yards. While it was an inefficient performance in the passing game, Dart remains a high-upside QB2 for dynasty managers.
Dynasty Stock Report
Javonte Williams – Dallas Cowboys, RB – Stock Up
One of the most exciting storylines so far this season has been the resurgence of Javonte Williams. After two inefficient campaigns following his knee injury, Williams has been one of the most productive RBs for fantasy football, ranking as an RB1 in both production and usage value to start the year. For context, through five games, Williams is the:
- RB10 in Expected Fantasy Points (14.4)
- RB3 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (4.6)
- RB10 in Rushing Share (63.2%)
- RB4 in Half-PPR Scoring (19.0)
In short, it has been an impressive season for Williams, who has clearly cemented his role as the lead RB for Dallas. And even though he is currently on a one-year contract, I would not be shocked to see him secure an extension before the end of the season. Especially at only 25 years old, Williams is still approaching the peak of his prime and could produce at a high level for another season or two. For now, Williams will remain an RB1 for fantasy managers as his dynasty stock continues to improve this season.
Chase Brown – Cincinnati Bengals, RB – Stock Down
After an impressive breakout campaign last year, Chase Brown has had an inefficient start to the season as the Bengals have struggled since the Joe Burrow injury. On top of that, their offensive line has not done him any favors, as Brown is currently the RB57 in Run Blocking Rating (-9.5) through five weeks. Yes, that was not a typo. There have been 56 other RBs who have received better run blocking than Brown this season. On a positive note, he continues to command the majority of the Bengals’ backfield opportunities, leading them in Expected Fantasy Points every week this season. In fact, he is still the RB20 in usage value with 12.5 Expected Points. Unfortunately, Brown has failed to finish within the top 20 in every matchup so far, averaging 4.4 Fantasy Points BELOW Expected. In addition, considering he is approaching the final year of his contract, there is a scenario where his inefficiencies force the Bengals to find a replacement sooner rather than later. Assuming he is unable to turn things around this season, Brown’s dynasty value could take a significant hit this upcoming offseason.
Quinshon Judkins – Cleveland Browns, RB – Stock Up
After missing the entire pre-season due to off-field issues, Quinshon Judkins has quickly emerged as the Browns’ RB1. After spending his first two games ramping him up to a full workload, Judkins has been a top-12 RB in Expected Fantasy Points (usage value) in each of the last two weeks. For context, since Week 4, Judkins is the:
- RB9 in Expected Fantasy Points (15.5)
- RB3 in Opportunity Share (40%)
- RB1 in Rushing Share (74.5%)
In other words, Judkins has been a borderline RB1 in usage and fantasy production, despite the Browns’ offensive struggles. However, there is some uncertainty about his availability, as a potential suspension still looms due to his off-field issues from July. Assuming it does not affect him beyond this season and he only misses a handful of games, Judkins should be valued as a dynasty RB1 by the end of the year.
Tre Harris – Los Angeles Chargers, WR – Stock Down
Heading into this season, there was some belief that Tre Harris could carve out a meaningful role in the Chargers’ offense after being selected in the second round. Unfortunately, with Keenan Allen’s return and the emergence of Quentin Johnston, Harris has been relegated to WR4 on their depth chart. To start the year, Harris has participated in only 23% of the available routes, while averaging a low 12% Targets per Route Run. With several obstacles preventing him from gaining more volume, Harris’ dynasty value will continue to decline as the Chargers’ passing offense will run through Allen, Johnston, and Ladd McConkey for the foreseeable future.
Prospect Watch List
Duce Robinson was a 5-star TE recruit who committed to USC and eventually made the transition to WR early in his collegiate career. He is a 6’6” and 220-pound prospect who possesses a unique combination of size, fluid route running, and a tremendous catch radius, allowing him to be a mismatch nightmare all over the field. While his limited usage and production at USC stand out, that can be attributed primarily to the team’s depth at WR, as they currently boast two prospects projected to be drafted within the first three rounds of the 2026 NFL draft. One of them is Makai Lemon, who is arguably the best receiver in college football this season. As a result, Robinson finally broke out after transferring to Florida State, immediately emerging as the WR1 for the Seminoles. To start the year, Robinson is averaging nearly 32% of their entire receiving production. In addition, he ranks near the top in receiving yards per team pass attempt (3.2), which is one of the most predictive metrics for prospect evaluation. While his late breakout does hurt his draft profile, his Junior season so far has given us a glimpse of his immense upside as a versatile receiving threat. Assuming he continues to dominate this year, Robinson has an opportunity to emerge as a day-two pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football WRs this season:
