Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 6

Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!

Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:

• Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
• Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
• Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects

And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!

Rookie Opportunity Dashboard

To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:

• Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
• Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.

If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.

Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 5:

• It was an impressive breakout performance from Tyrone Tracy, who took over RB1 duties with Devin Singletary unavailable. While Eric Gray was more involved as a receiver, Tracy was the lead rusher, finishing the week with a 31% opportunity share and 12.2 Expected Fantasy Points. In addition, Tracy was extremely effective with his opportunities, finishing with a higher rushing EPA than all of Singletary’s games COMBINED.
• Bucky Irving remains heavily involved for Tampa Bay, once again finishing with flex-level usage (Expected Fantasy Points) right behind Rachaad White. While this backfield will remain a committee, Irving’s dynasty stock continues to improve.
• Jordan Whittington has now finished with flex-level usage in back-to-back games, exceeding a 20% target share in each of his last two games. Assuming Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are still out of the lineup, Whittington will remain a WR3 with upside for dynasty managers.
• Brian Thomas Jr. has been a WR1 in back-to-back weeks. More importantly, though, his usage has been trending in the right direction. Thomas has finished with double-digit Expected Fantasy Points in each of his last three games, averaging a 24% target share and 34% air yards share since Week 3.
• Adonai Mitchell finished third among rookie wide receivers in expected fantasy points, though he greatly benefited from the game script and a pass-heavy game plan. He finished the week with only a 16% target share and 19% air yards share. In addition, Mitchell only participated on 24% of the routes as he continues to play behind Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.
• After a quiet last couple of weeks, Brock Bowers bounced back significantly, commanding an elite 33% target share and 26% air yards share against the Broncos. Bowers remains a weekly TE1 despite the uneven quarterback play for the Raiders.
• Theo Johnson has been the TE1 for the Giants to start the season, averaging a 70% route participation through five weeks. We finally saw that translate into fantasy production in Week 5 as Johnson set a career-high with a 16% target share and 7.7 Expected Fantasy Points.
• This was by far Caleb Williams’ most efficient week as a passer as he set a career-high in passing EPA with +15.1, finishing the week with a solid 47.4% success rate and a +2.8 Completion Percentage Over Expected. So while he did struggle to start the year, Williams continues to develop and improve, finishing as a QB1 for the first time in his young career.

Dynasty Stock Report

Drake London – Atlanta Falcons, WR

Stock Up

This was a pivotal season for Drake London, who had an uneven start to his career as the Falcons struggled through inefficient quarterback play over the last two years. Keep in mind that it was never a matter of talent as London was averaging an elite target share (26%) and targets per route run (25%) in his first two seasons. In a run-heavy, conservative offense, however, that only translated into borderline flex-level production for dynasty managers. Therefore, when the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a long-term deal, there was plenty of hope that this could finally be the breakout season we have been waiting for. Through five games, London is averaging:

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• 26.3% Target Share
• 33.5% Air Yards Share
• 25% Targets Per Route Run
• 13.9 Half-PPR Points

More importantly, London is averaging 12.5 Expected Fantasy Points, which ranks WR15 on the season. While that is still far from elite usage, it is still a significant improvement from his first two seasons. And assuming his connection with Cousins only improves, he should finish the season as a borderline WR1 in all formats. For now, London should be considered a dynasty WR1 as he finally has a capable quarterback that can elevate his ceiling.

Treylon Burks – Tennessee Titans, WR

Stock Down

Similar to London, Treylon Burks struggled to produce in his first two seasons. However, unlike London, Burks has yet to command targets at a high rate, failing to exceed a 20% target share in any of his first two seasons. He did flash some upside in his rookie year as he finished with an 18% target share, 27% air yards share, and 21% targets per route run. Unfortunately, injuries derailed his second year and Burks was unable to take advantage of his opportunities, playing behind DeAndre Hopkins in 2023. Now, in his third year, the entire Titans offense has been revamped with the recent additions of Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard, relegating Burks to be the fifth option in the Titans offense. As a result, through five games, he is averaging a career-low 52% route participation and 7% target share. Historically, this does not bode well for Burks’ dynasty value as 80% of wide receiver breakouts occur within a player’s first three seasons. In other words, it is far less common for a wide receiver to emerge after their third campaign. Unfortunately, based on his recent usage, Burks’ dynasty value will continue to decline as he is currently the WR4 in Brian Callahan’s offense.

Tank Bigsby – Jacksonville Jaguars, RB

Stock Up

Tank Bigsby entered the league after a productive career at Auburn, breaking out as a true freshman and averaging over 20% of the team’s offensive production every season. While he did receive day-two capital, his upside was always going to be capped due to the presence of Travis Etienne. As a result, Bigsby only finished once within the top 36 in his rookie year. Fast forward to his second campaign, Bigsby has quickly emerged in the Jacksonville backfield, ranking as the RB3 this season in EPA (Expected Points Added) per rush attempt among running backs with a minimum of 15 carries. That resulted in a career-high usage value of 11.0 Expected Fantasy Points against the Colts, ranking within the top 20 for the first time in his career. With multiple explosive plays, Bigsby finished Week 5 as the RB1 in half-PPR scoring. While his usage and efficiency are trending in the right direction, Etienne will undoubtedly remain involved. However, this backfield could quickly transform into a committee, which could make Bigsby a weekly flex RB option. From a dynasty perspective, keep in mind that Etienne is also approaching the final year of his contract and will be looking for an extension in 2025. If Bigsby continues to flash significant upside, I would not be shocked if the Jaguars moved on from Etienne and committed to the cheaper running back.

Deshaun Watson – Cleveland Browns, QB

Stock Down

Deshaun “Voldemort” Watson has struggled significantly this season as he is currently only the QB26 in points per game. More importantly, his efficiency profile has been atrocious, ranking outside the top 20 in nearly every metric. Through five games, Watson is the:

• QB32 in EPA per Pass Attempt (-0.08)
• QB34 in Pass Success Rate (35.7%)
• QB34 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-4.3)
• QB33 in EPA per Carry (-0.08)

In short, Deshaun Watson‘s performance as a quarterback reveals inefficiencies as both a rusher and a passer. In addition, from a dynasty perspective, his contract offers minimal cap relief until 2027. This leaves the Cleveland Browns in a predicament, as they are stuck with Watson as their signal-caller for the foreseeable future, likely keeping them out of playoff contention. Consequently, dynasty managers are left with no choice but to bench Watson as he remains unstartable across all fantasy formats.

Prospect Watch List

With Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce no longer as dominant as they once used to be, there is an opening for a younger tight end to take the TE1 crown. While Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta, and Trey McBride make up the top tier of dynasty tight ends, Colston Loveland out of Michigan could join them in the coming years. At 6’5” and 245 pounds, Loveland checks every box athletically. He has the speed to break away from the defense and the strength and quickness to get open on shorter and intermediate routes. With his combination of length, size, and fluid route running, Loveland projects to be a volume-heavy TE1 at the next level. 

In terms of production, Loveland stands out following an outstanding breakout season. As you can see above, he was only marginally involved as a freshman, playing behind Luke Schoonmaker in 2022 (Dallas’ second-round pick in 2023). As a sophomore, Loveland took over as the TE1, operating as the focal point alongside Roman Wilson and Blake Corum. He averaged 1.80 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt in 15 games, which would rank in the 94th percentile among all drafted tight ends since 2013. Even more impressive, Loveland has elevated his game even further this season. He is currently accounting for 36% of the team’s entire receiving production, averaging an elite 2.16 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt (96th percentile). In short, if Loveland can maintain his current pace, he will likely rank as my TE1 in the 2025 NFL Draft. For context, he is currently a 95th percentile prospect in my tight end rookie model, which would place him between Noah Fant and Tyler Eifert. So while he may not be the elite prospect that Brock Bowers was entering the 2024 draft, Loveland still boasts an impressive profile. As a result, he should be considered a top-10 prospect in next year’s dynasty drafts, especially in tight end premium leagues. 

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For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top tight ends through six weeks of the CFB season: