Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 6
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report!
This article will highlight the most important storylines from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in a dynasty league, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s dynasty value beyond this year.
To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Week 5
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) are synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between each player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually regress closer to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on.
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
Rookie Observations after Week 5:
- Tyjae Spears continues to carve out a significant role in the Tennessee backfield, having just set a career-high in Expected Points (11.4) and opportunity share (21.4%) in Week 5. While his usage metrics still rank outside of the top 40 for the full season, it is clear that his presence will continue to hurt Derrick Henry‘s fantasy upside. For context, Henry finished with an opportunity share of over 30% in all but one game last year, but he has already finished below that threshold twice in five games this season.
- With James Conner leaving the game early due to a knee injury, Emari Demercado took an expanded role as he accounted for 25% of the team’s opportunities on 77% snap share. In fact, last week, we already saw him set a career-high target share (9.7%) as Keaontay Ingram was unavailable. With Conner placed on IR, Demecardo is primed for additional opportunities with the potential to lead the Cardinals’ backfield in attempts and targets.
- De’Von Achane continues to perform efficiently, scoring +13.0 Fantasy Points Over Expected in each of his last three games. While his limited usage will keep him as a low-end RB2/flex play, he should be started every week due to his week-winning ability. Hopefully, his knee injury will not keep him out for an extended period of time, as he is on pace to have one of the most efficient rookie seasons in recent history.
- Zay Flowers has received a +20% target share in all but one game this season. He is also currently one of only two rookies to average over a 25% target share and 30% air yards share on the season. At this rate, Flowers will be a top 20 dynasty wide receiver by the end of the year.
- With Justin Jefferson likely landing on IR due to a hamstring injury, Jordan Addison is set to receive added opportunities in one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league. He finished the week as the WR8 in Expected Points (14.2), commanding an impressive 20% target share and 29% air yards share with Jefferson out of the lineup. Hopefully this was a preview of what to expect from Addison going forward as he will likely take on the WR1 role for the Vikings for the foreseeable future.
- If anyone was worried about Puka Nacua’s usage with Cooper Kupp, they can now breathe a sigh of relief. While Kupp did lead the team in target share (35.3%) and air yards share (40.1%) in Week 5, Nacua was not far behind as both receivers ranked within the top 15 in Expected Points.
- Sam LaPorta continues to impress in his rookie season, ranking as a TE1 in both usage (8.1 xFP) and efficiency (+3.8 FPOE) through five weeks. While his target share has fluctuated as the Lions have relied more on the run this season, LaPorta remains a borderline TE1 due to the scarcity at the tight end position.
- While we did see an improvement in fantasy production from Bryce Young in Week 5, his efficiency remains below average. Against the Lions, Young was only the QB22 in EPA per Attempt (0.03) and the QB18 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+2.2). And on the season, he is only the QB50 in total Pass EPA (-35.9), ahead of only Zach Wilson and Daniel Jones. While he could still improve as the year progresses, his efficiency profile through five games has not been overly encouraging.
Dynasty Stock Report
Bijan Robinson entered his NFL career as a highly-touted prospect after a successful career at Texas. Coupled with first-round capital and a top-tier athletic profile, Bijan was one of the highest-graded prospects in my RB rookie model over the last 10 seasons. He graded in the 98th percentile, behind only three running backs:
His production over the first five weeks only confirmed what we already anticipated: Robinson will be an RB1 to start his career. So far in his rookie season, Robinson is averaging a 30.3% opportunity share, 15.6% target share, 12.6 Expected Points, and 14.3 half-PPR points. While those numbers are already impressive, there is still room for improvement in his usage as Tyler Allgeier continues to be heavily involved. But as long as Atlanta remains a run-heavy offense (32nd in Pass Rate Over Expected), Bijan will be an RB1 despite having to share the backfield. In short, there should be very little debate that Robinson is rightfully the dynasty RB1 as he provides the perfect blend of immediate production and long-term value for fantasy managers.
It pains me to write about Treylon Burks in the “Stock Down” segment of this series, as he was one of my favorite prospects coming out of Arkansas. Unfortunately, his second season is off to a shaky start, as he is clearly playing behind DeAndre Hopkins while also struggling through a knee injury. Through five weeks (three games), Burks is averaging a 16% target share and a 30.8% air yards share, which is very much in line with his production in his rookie year. While the Titans’ run-heavy scheme is partially to blame for his lack of production, Hopkins’ 2023 season is proof that a receiver can command WR1 volume in this offense. For comparison, Hopkins is averaging a 30% target share and 42% air yards share. While both receivers have underperformed, it does make you wonder what could have been if the Titans had not signed Hopkins this offseason. Regardless, I am still willing to invest in Burks considering his cost is likely the lowest it’s been this year. Keep in mind, if the Titans were to miss the playoffs for a second consecutive year, it would not surprise me if they moved on from their veterans to reset the trajectory of the franchise. In this case, they could save $14 million by releasing Hopkins ($0 guaranteed in 2024) next offseason, which would vault Burks back into the WR1 role.
It was a shocking development this offseason as Brock Purdy not only recovered from a shoulder injury in time for Week 1 but also cemented his value as the QB1 for the 49ers. In fact, San Francisco felt confident enough in Purdy’s development that they traded Trey Lance for very little draft capital in return. They clearly made the right decision as Purdy is currently one of the most productive and efficient quarterbacks this season. Among players with at least 20 pass attempts, he ranks as the:
- QB1 in Pass EPA per Attempt (+0.49)
- QB1 in Adjusted Yards per Attempt (10.7)
- QB4 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+7.7)
- QB6 in Fantasy Points per Game (19.9)
In short, Purdy has had an outstanding start to the season. While he has clearly elevated his game, keep in mind that he will remain a volatile fantasy quarterback (only QB27 in Expected Points at 14.7) due to his heavy reliance on efficiency and lack of consistent rushing production. In other words, if his efficiency does regress to the mean, his floor is much closer to a low-end QB2. As a result, I would still rank him well below some of the elite fantasy quarterbacks. But as long he remains in the Shanahan system, Purdy should be viewed as a high-end QB2 in dynasty leagues.
Khalil Shakir – Buffalo Bills, WR
Despite flashing some big-play ability at various points in his rookie year, Khalil Shakir has not taken the step forward that some may have hoped. Instead, he has been buried behind both Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield this season, averaging a lower target share through five weeks. To be fair, he did deal with a head injury in Week 4. But even if we exclude this game, Shakir has only averaged a 1% target share to start the season. While his athletic profile and explosiveness are certainly intriguing, this offense will continue to run through Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and James Cook. And with the ascension of Dalton Kincaid, there is very little room for Shakir to break out in the foreseeable future.
Prospect Watch List
In the 2023 draft, we saw a pair of Texas running backs drafted in Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson. Sitting behind both of them on the Longhorns’ depth chart over the last two seasons has been Jonathon Brooks – a four-star recruit out of Halletsville, Texas. Naturally, playing behind one of the most accomplished running back prospects in recent history, Brooks received very few opportunities to shine in his first two collegiate seasons. However, with both Robinson and Johnson declaring for the NFL, Brooks’ path to lead the backfield was wide open. And while he did split touches to start the year, we have seen Texas rely on him more over the last four games.
Since Week 3, Brooks has been averaging 22.3 opportunities per game, with a very efficient 7.8 yards per touch. He also ranks in the top five in Yards per Team Play (1.99) among Power 5 running backs, making him one of the most elite running backs in the nation. As a rusher, Brooks’ patience and vision are two of his most impressive skills. Combined with his shifty footwork, we have seen him generate some explosive plays this season. And while most mock drafts currently have him projected as a day-three pick (similar to Roschon Johnson last year), I would not be surprised to see his stock rise into day-two territory as his breakout continues this season.