Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 5
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 4:
- Bucky Irving was by far the most productive rookie running back this past week as his usage continues to expand. More on his dynasty value in the Dynasty Stock Report!
- Braelon Allen remains heavily involved in the Jets’ offense. However, this was his lowest usage value since Week 1. Keep in mind that Breece Hall remains the only Jets running back to average double-digit Expected Fantasy Points in any week this season.
- Trey Benson saw a slight improvement in opportunity share from Week 3, though it was entirely driven by garbage time. Eight of his nine opportunities came on their final drive with four minutes left as the game was already decided. For now, Benson remains the RB2 behind James Conner.
- Malik Nabers continues his elite rookie season, marking the third time with over 20.0 Expected Fantasy Points in a single game. He is now one of only two rookie wide receivers since 2022, alongside Garrett Wilson, to exceed that threshold three times.
- With Adam Thielen being placed on injured reserve, Xavier Legette saw a significant boost in usage as he set a season-high in route participation at 88%. Because of the increase in opportunities, he commanded a 25% target share and 30% air yards share. That equated to borderline WR1 usage with 14.7 Expected Fantasy Points. If this is any indication of his usage while Thielen is out, Legette could be a high-upside flex option for the next couple of weeks.
- Brian Thomas set a season-high in usage value with 14.1 xFP this past week as he commanded an impressive 28% target share and 35% air yards share. While Christian Kirk remains the WR1 on that team, Thomas has clearly separated himself as the WR2 ahead of Gabe Davis.
- Ja’Lynn Polk set a season-high in route participation with 87%, which led to his best target share and air yards share through four games. While it did not translate to fantasy production, Polk’s usage has steadily improved in recent weeks.
- Jordan Whittington seems to have overtaken Tyler Johnson on the depth chart as he led all Rams receivers in usage value (10.8 xFP), target share (28%), and air yards share (26%) in Week 4. While his production may be short-lived if and when Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua return, Whittington could be a decent flex option if he can maintain his usage.
- Even with Rashee Rice missing most of the game, Xavier Worthy only received a 14.3% target share. While he did make the most of his opportunities (+9.3 Fantasy Points Over Expected), his usage value needs to improve to rely on him as a consistent fantasy option going forward. However, if Rice were to miss extended time, I fully expect Worthy’s usage to improve.
- It was a quiet week for rookie tight ends, even for Brock Bowers. Ja’Tavion Sanders did set a career-high in usage value, though his route participation remained steady at only 21%. Until we see him run more routes than Tommy Tremble (currently the TE1 for Carolina), Sanders will remain unstartable for fantasy managers.
Dynasty Stock Report
Jayden Daniels – Washington Commanders, QB
Stock Up
While there was plenty of hype surrounding Caleb Williams as the QB1 of the 2024 class, Jayden Daniels was an equally intriguing prospect for fantasy football because of his immense rushing ability. For context, he led all quarterbacks in his class in college career rushing share (32%), while also boasting an 80th percentile adjusted yards per pass attempt (9.5). So even though the upside was certainly there, I’m not sure anyone expected him to be this productive and efficient to start his NFL career. For context, through four weeks, Daniels is the:
- QB1 in Fantasy Points per Game (23.4)
- QB4 in Expected Fantasy Points (19.9)
- QB2 in Rushing Share (34%)
- QB1 in Pass Success Rate (59%)
- QB1 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (+11.2)
While the first three metrics should not come as a surprise due to his rushing ability, his accuracy as a passer is what truly stands out. In other words, Daniels has been a true dual-threat quarterback in his first four games. As a result, while Caleb Williams still holds plenty of upside long-term, Daniels is undeniably now the highest-valued rookie quarterback in this class. Assuming he can maintain his production for the rest of the year, Daniels will likely be valued as a top-five dynasty quarterback by the end of the season.
Blake Corum – Los Angeles Rams, RB
Stock Down
Blake Corum entered his NFL career as a productive prospect coming out of Michigan. While his efficiency profile was far from elite, he still totaled over 1,300 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns in each of his final two seasons. As a result, I fully expected Corum to carve out an immediate role for the Rams, potentially impacting the usage value of Kyren Williams. However, through the first four weeks, Corum has been far from involved in the Rams’ offense, playing behind Williams and Ronnie Rivers to start his rookie year. In fact, he has been active only once so far this season as he has yet to establish himself as a consistent contributor. From a dynasty perspective, I am not panicking yet as Kyren Williams was similarly uninvolved to start his rookie year. However, if this trend continues, I expect Corum to be valued outside of the top 50 dynasty running backs by the end of the year.
Bucky Irving – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, RB
Stock Up
Throughout the pre-draft process, there was some momentum that Bucky Irving could be selected with day two capital, especially after an efficient final two seasons at Oregon. In fact, if he was selected in rounds two or three, Irving would have ranked as a top-three running back in my rookie model for the 2024 class. However, because he slipped to the fourth round, his dynasty value plummeted. Naturally, we should be cautious about day three running backs as their hit rates hover around 10% based on historical data. While there is no guarantee that Irving is one of those outliers (especially with such a small sample size), there are a few reasons to be optimistic. As you can see above, Irving finished with 11.1 Expected Fantasy Points, which is the highest usage value of his short career. Week 4 was also the first time in which Irving had a higher usage value than Rachaad White, signaling a potential changing of the guard. He also accounted for 60% of the team’s rushing attempts inside the five-yard line, receiving goal-line opportunities on two separate drives. As a result, his dynasty value will only improve as he continues to carve out a significant role in the Bucs’ offense. And while I do expect White to remain involved, Irving holds immense upside if he can eventually take over this backfield.
Mark Andrews – Baltimore Ravens, TE
Stock Down
What is going on with Mark Andrews? To start the season, Andrews is only averaging a 64% route participation and 9% target share, ranking behind Isaiah Likely in both metrics. His route percentage has declined even further over the last two weeks, finishing as low as 35% in Week 3. For context, in his most productive season back in 2021, Andrews averaged a route participation of 84% in 17 games. As the Ballers discussed on Tuesday’s episode, his role in this offense has changed as the Ravens have relied heavily on Derrick Henry to start the year. In addition, his targets per route run of only 11% has been equally concerning, especially after consistently averaging over 20% in his last three seasons. In other words, even when Andrews is running routes, he is no longer commanding targets at an elite rate. As a result, Isaiah Likely has been far more involved as a receiver for the Ravens. While I am not fully panicking, we may need to adjust our expectations as Andrews may no longer be the consistent, elite TE1 we have grown accustomed to over the last five years.
Prospect Watch List
Ashton Jeanty has been one of the most dominant running backs in the nation this season. He currently leads the FBS in rushing yards, yards from scrimmage, rushing yards per attempt, and total touchdowns as he continues to operate as the focal point for Boise State. This should not come as a surprise as Jeanty had an elite breakout season in 2023, accounting for nearly 40% of the team’s entire offense and averaging 2.43 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play. For context, his sophomore campaign ranks in the 98th percentile among all drafted running backs since 2013.
Shockingly, Jeanty is setting the bar even higher this season, averaging career-highs in multiple metrics. To put his production further into context, his junior campaign would rank in the 99.9th percentile as Jeanty would become the ONLY running back in the last decade to finish a season averaging over 3.00 Scrimmage Yards per Team Play. Naturally, his production could still regress this season. But based on his body of work so far, Jeanty continues to separate himself as the clear RB1 of the 2025 class. As you might already expect, he ranks extremely high in my rookie model as well. Assuming he does receive day one or two capital, Jeanty currently projects to be a 97th percentile running back prospect, which places him in my model among some of the most elite NFL running backs in recent history – Dalvin Cook, Jonathan Taylor, and Ezekiel Elliott. So while TreVeyon Henderson, Ollie Gordon, and Quinshon Judkins hold plenty of upside as prospects, Jeanty is currently my 2025 rookie RB1 and should be in contention as the 1.01 in dynasty drafts next season.
For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top running backs through five weeks of the CFB season:
