Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 3

Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!

Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:

• Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
• Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
• Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects

And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!

Rookie Opportunity Dashboard

To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.

For reference:

• Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
• Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
• Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.

If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.

Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 2:

• After a quiet Week 1 performance, Cam Skattebo took over the Giants’ backfield. He led them in total opportunities (14) and in usage value of 11.8 Expected Points, ranking within the top-24 RBs this past week. While this offense has been more pass-heavy to start the season, Skattebo has the potential to be a weekly flex option if the coaching staff continues to lean on him as their lead RB.
• Quinshon Judkins made his debut for the Browns as he totaled 8.6 fantasy points on a 20.6% opportunity share. Surprisingly, Jerome Ford led the backfield in usage value as he was significantly more involved in the receiving game (14.6% target share) than both Judkins and Dylan Sampson. On a positive note, Judkins did lead them in rushing share (45.5%), albeit in a blowout game that was already decided early in the fourth quarter. While it was encouraging to see him immediately involved, I would temper expectations until we see the Browns fully commit to Judkins as their RB1.
• With Tank Bigsby no longer on the team, Bhayshul Tuten emerged as the RB2 behind Travis Etienne. While he did finish the week as a top-24 RB in fantasy production, his usage value of only 7.1 Expected Points still trailed Etienne’s by a significant margin. As long as Etienne remains heavily involved, Tuten should be considered nothing more than a high-end RB4 or low-end RB3 in fantasy lineups.
• Though their Week 2 performances were inefficient, I’m not concerned about Omarion Hampton and Ashton Jeanty. Both still ranked within the top 30 in Expected Fantasy Points, indicating their continued importance to their offenses. I anticipate more productive weeks from them soon.

Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

• Tetairoa McMillan continues to cement himself as a weekly WR2 with upside for dynasty managers, despite the early struggles of the Panthers’ offense. For context, McMillan has been a top 15 WR in Expected Fantasy Points (13.2), leading Carolina in both target share (21%) and air yards share (31%) through two games.
• Through two weeks, Elic Ayomanor currently leads the Titans receivers in multiple metrics (per game), including Expected Fantasy Points (9.3), half-PPR points (8.0), and air yards share (40.4%). In short, his usage continues to indicate that he will be an integral part of this offense alongside Calvin Ridley. For now, consider him a low-floor flex option in favorable matchups.
• Matthew Golden’s target share through two games is at 8.2%. His usage value is at 4.2 Expected Points per game, behind Dontayvion Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed. While that is somewhat concerning from a fantasy perspective, Reed’s unfortunate injury should lead to more opportunities for Golden going forward.
• Harold Fannin was once again a borderline TE1 in fantasy production, though we did see his target share decline to 12.2% in Week 2. On a positive note, the Browns continued to operate as a pass-heavy offense while leveraging two-TE sets at a high rate. As long as that continues, Fannin and David Njoku will remain weekly TE1 options.

Dynasty Stock Report

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Rome Odunze – Chicago Bears, WR – Stock Up

What a difference a year makes! After a slightly disappointing rookie season playing behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze entered this year with high expectations. With another offseason to develop chemistry with Caleb Williams, the departure of Allen, and the addition of Ben Johnson as their playcaller, there was a clear path for Odunze to finally break out. And through two weeks, he has done nothing but exceed those expectations. To start the year, Odunze has been one of the most productive WRs in the league, averaging:

• 29.8% Target Share
• 42.2% Air Yards Share
• 14.4 Expected Fantasy Points (usage)
• +6.1 Fantasy Points Over Expected (efficiency)

Odunze’s season has been particularly impressive,  due to his significantly increased usage. He ranks as WR12 in Expected Fantasy Points, ahead of notable players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Puka Nacua. If Johnson continues to utilize him as the Bears’ primary receiver, Odunze’s long-term outlook should only improve, solidifying his status as a top-15 WR in dynasty leagues.

Tank Bigsby – Philadelphia Eagles, RB – Stock Down

Tank Bigsby’s dynasty value continues to decline this season. After their Week 1 matchup, the Jaguars decided to send Bigsby to the Philadelphia Eagles in an unexpected trade. And while he was always going to battle for touches with Travis Etienne and rookie Bhayshul Tuten, Bigsby finds himself now in an arguably worse situation. Buried behind Saquon Barkley, who is viewed by many as the best RB in the league, his path to fantasy relevance is much more limited than it was in Jacksonville. Even in the event of Barkley having to miss time, Bigsby will have to compete for touches with A.J. Dillon and Will Shipley. Unfortunately, with Barkley recently signing an extension, Bigsby will be nothing more than a high-value backup at best for dynasty managers over the next couple of seasons. 

Tyler Warren – Indianapolis Colts, TE – Stock Up

After a five-year career at Penn State and producing as one of the most elite TEs in the nation in 2024, Tyler Warren entered the NFL as one of the most intriguing prospects. Especially after being selected in the first round, his upside as a versatile offensive weapon was always evident as he ranked well above the 95th percentile in my TE rookie model. And through two weeks, we are already seeing glimpses of his potential in the Colts offense, emerging as one of Daniel Jones’ favorite targets. So far, Warren has averaged a 26% target share and 19% air yards share, ranking as the TE2 in Expected Fantasy Points. He also leads all Colts TEs in route participation at 79%, indicating that his production should be sustainable going forward. From a dynasty perspective, this just reaffirms that Warren should already be valued as a top-five player at his position. Especially with several veterans approaching the end of their primes, players like Warren, Trey McBride, and Brock Bowers are set to take over as the next group of elite TEs in the dynasty landscape. 

Pat Freiermuth – Pittsburgh Steelers, TE – Stock Down

On the other end of the dynasty spectrum, Pat Freiermuth’s value continues to plummet after the Steelers traded for Jonnu Smith. From a fantasy perspective, Smith’s presence has clearly limited Freiermuth’s usage so far this year, averaging only a 58% route participation through two games. On top of that, Smith has been the superior TE at commanding targets with a 24% targets per route run compared to 17% for Freiermuth. As a result, the Muth has been outside of the top 25 TEs in Expected Fantasy Points, indicating that he is essentially unstartable in all formats. In addition, his long-term outlook with the Steelers is a little murky after Smith signed an extension to remain with Pittsburgh beyond this year. Freiermuth, on the other hand, has a non-guaranteed contract beyond 2025, which could lead to a trade or his release if the team decides to free up some cap space. Until then, his upside will remain limited as the TE2 for Pittsburgh.

Prospect Watch List

Jordyn Tyson from Arizona State is my early pick to be the WR1 of the 2026 rookie class. In short, he checks nearly every box we look for from a WR prospect. First off, he ranks in the 99th percentile for both EPA per Target (1.07) and Success Rate (70%), highlighting his dynamic skill set and impact on the Sun Devils’ offense. His market share production also stands out, producing 1.63 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt as a true freshman, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs drafted since 2013. Unfortunately, a knee injury would delay his breakout as he was forced to miss the majority of the 2023 campaign. However, with a full off-season to recover, Tyson returned for his third year at Arizona State and dominated in his redshirt Sophomore season. He accounted for over 40% of Arizona State’s receiving production last season (95th percentile), cementing his value as the top WR in the 2026 class. Fast forward to this year, and Tyson is all but confirming what we already know. With an elite 59.6% receiving yards market share and 3.61 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt in three games this season, he is on pace to become one of the most productive WRs drafted in recent history. Assuming he remains healthy, I would be shocked if Tyson was not selected as a top 10 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

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As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football WRs this season: