Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 3
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
2024 Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between a player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 2:
- While the 2024 rookie running back class has mostly struggled so far this season, we did see an improvement from both Braelon Allen and Trey Benson this past week. Allen was significantly more involved in Week 2 as he set career highs in target share (13.7%), opportunity share (20.7%), and snaps (36%). More importantly, his usage value of 8.9 Expected Fantasy Points ranked within the top 36 at the running back position. In other words, while we should not expect consistent RB1 production, Allen could be a flex option if he can maintain his Week 2 usage going forward.
- Trey Benson saw a similar boost in opportunities, finishing with a 19.7% opportunity share and 23% route participation. However, as you can see above, Benson was far from efficient as he finished with a -5.9 Fantasy Points Over Expected. While his improved usage was encouraging, the Cardinals’ backfield clearly belongs to James Conner, likely limiting Benson’s production for the remainder of the season.
- Malik Nabers had a historic performance against the Commanders as he finished with an elite 67% target share and 75% air yards share. That translated into one of the highest usage values we have seen from a rookie wide receiver. For context, his 27.7 Expected Fantasy Points ranks second among all rookie receivers since 2013, behind only Odell Beckham Jr. While I do not expect Nabers to receive this kind of usage every week, his consistent involvement in the Giants’ offense should lead to top 20 performances more often than not.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. is a perfect example of why we should NOT overreact to Week 1. After only receiving a 10% target share in his first game, Harrison bounced back significantly in Week 2. Outside of the two touchdowns that resulted in +13.2 Fantasy Points Over Expected, his usage value was equally encouraging. He finished the week with a 38% target share, 70% air yards share, and 33% targets per route run. Considering he entered the league as one of the most accomplished college wide receivers in recent history (99th percentile in my rookie model), I fully expect him to continue to dominate this season.
- Usage Stat of the Week: The average usage value of a WR36 (threshold for flex-level production) since 2013 equates to 9.5 Expected Fantasy Points. As you can see above, only two receivers exceeded that value in Week 2. In other words, if we want to rely on a rookie receiver as a flex option, we ideally want to see them exceed this threshold every week.
- Brock Bowers is a TE1. I mentioned it in last week’s article, and his performance this week only confirmed that. With a usage value of 13.6 xFP, Bowers will continue to hold a very high baseline regardless of the matchup.
- While every rookie quarterback struggled this past week, Jayden Daniels’ usage value continues to stand out. For context, Daniels is averaging 19.3 Expected Points through two weeks, which ranks QB6 this season. As for Caleb Williams, there are legitimate concerns regarding his performance so far this season. Among all quarterbacks with a minimum of 30 plays, Williams ranks QB29 in Success Rate (35.2%), QB29 in Completion Percentage Over Expected (-9.8), and QB31 in EPA per Play (-0.28). While I still believe in the talent, we may have overrated his landing spot as the entire Bears offense continues to struggle.
Dynasty Stock Report
De’Von Achane – Miami Dolphins, RB
Stock Up
Since joining the league, De’Von Achane has been nothing but productive, averaging over 17.0 half-PPR points in 13 games. For context, since 2013, Achane has been the RB3 in fantasy production, behind only Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams in points per game. He also ranks second among running backs in Fantasy Points Over Expected (FPOE) at +6.30 per game. Realistically, averaging that many points above expected would signal that a running back is bound for regression. However, Achane has yet to taper off in efficiency through two games this season, finishing with over +4.0 FPOE in each of his last two games. More importantly, the Dolphins relied on him heavily with Raheem Mostert ruled out in Week 2. Against the Bills, Achane finished with a:
- 40.8% Opportunity Share
- 18.9% Target Share
- 65% Rushing Share
- 47% Route Participation
Those are elite RB1 numbers as Achane finished with a career-high in usage value with 21.7 Expected Fantasy Points. Especially with Tua Tagovailoa unavailable over the next four weeks, the Dolphins may need to lean on Achane even more. So despite Mostert’s imminent return to the lineup, I fully expect Achane to remain an RB1 for the rest of the season. And from a dynasty perspective, he should be firmly entrenched as a top-five running back going forward.
Curtis Samuel – Buffalo Bills, WR
Stock Down
When the Bills decided to trade away Stefon Diggs, it opened up an opportunity for a new receiver to emerge as the WR1. As a result, with Curtis Samuel signing a three-year deal, there was some hope that he could be a consistent target for Josh Allen this season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case through the first two weeks. Over the last two games, Samuel is averaging a 34% route participation and 9.8% target share, clearly operating as the third or fourth option on offense. For context, even Mack Hollins has been running more routes (72%) than Samuel through the first two weeks. So despite Samuel’s new contract that ties him to the team through 2025, it is evident that Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir will be the primary wide receivers to roster in the Bills’ offense.
Jordan Mason – San Francisco 49ers, RB
Stock Up
With Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell both on injured reserve, Jordan Mason’s dynasty value has improved drastically over the last month. Especially after his last two games, Mason continues to showcase RB1 upside in Kyle Shannahan’s offense. So far this season, Mason is averaging a:
- 65% Route Participation
- 43% Opportunity Share
- 20.04 Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
For context, Mason is the RB5 in Expected Points over the last two weeks, signaling truly elite usage that mirrors what we saw from McCaffrey last year. As a result, he likely slots in as an RB1 every single week as long as CMC is unavailable. However, for dynasty managers who do not have McCaffrey on their roster, now might be the perfect time to trade Mason away at his inflated value. Keep in mind that he is currently in the final year of his rookie contract after going undrafted in 2022. We have also seen countless examples of undrafted free agents – James Robinson, Phillip Lindsay, Isaiah Crowell, and Jeff Wilson to name a few – who were fantasy-relevant at various points in their careers but were eventually replaced. Therefore, I would be cautious about overvaluing Mason’s dynasty value despite his productive start to the season.
Marvin Mims – Denver Broncos, WR
Stock Down
It has been a disappointing career so far for Marvin Mims, who was selected with second-round capital in last year’s draft. Unfortunately, Mims has struggled to produce through his rookie year, averaging a 43% route participation and 13% targets per route run in 16 games. In that timespan, he only finished once in the top 30 in half-PPR leagues. Fast forward to this season, Mims has failed to make an impact as he continues to operate behind multiple wide receivers. Through two weeks, Mims’ route participation has declined to 14%, while only commanding a disappointing 4% target share. Surprisingly, he has played behind Devaughn Vele and Josh Reynolds, who both joined the Broncos only earlier this year. As a result, Mims’ dynasty value will continue to decline as he now ranks outside of the top 80 dynasty wide receivers on Keep Trade Cut.
Prospect Watch List
Entering the 2024 college football season, Tetairoa McMillan was widely regarded as the WR1 of the 2025 NFL Draft. When watching him on the field, what immediately stands out is his unique athleticism, allowing him to create separation in multiple ways. At 6’5” and 212 pounds, McMillan can beat defenders with his quickness at the line of scrimmage or by leveraging his length and strength at the catch point. Equally important, his athletic ability has translated to one of the most impressive production profiles in recent history. Even as a true freshman, McMillan was already heavily involved, averaging 18.4% of the team’s receiving yards. However, it was not until his sophomore year that he truly emerged as a potential WR1 of the 2025 rookie class. In 2023, he finished the season with 1,405 scrimmage yards, 10 total touchdowns, and an elite 3.02 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. For context, his production ranked in the 95th percentile among all wide receivers drafted since 2013.
After his breakout season, it was difficult to imagine McMillan setting the bar even higher this year. Yet through three games, he is on pace to finish with a 99th-percentile junior year, accounting for 66% of the team’s entire receiving production and averaging 4.6 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt. To put into perspective just how unique his profile is shaping up to be, below is a list of all wide receivers drafted since 2010 to exceed +3.00 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt as a sophomore and +4.00 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt as a junior:
- Dez Bryant
- Tetairoa McMillan
End of list. In short, if he can maintain his current pace, McMillan will be the unquestioned WR1 in rookie drafts and should be selected with a top-three rookie pick in dynasty leagues.
For a list of other prospects to keep an eye on, below are the top wide receivers through three weeks of the CFB season: