Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 2
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective, as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and one of the Ballers!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position.
For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric closely tied to volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between their actual production and expected fantasy value. This metric will generally fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share represents the percentage of targets and rush attempts a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 1:
- With Quinshon Judkins only recently signing his contract, Dylan Sampson operated as the RB1 for the Browns. He totaled 20 opportunities, which translated to 16.8 Expected Fantasy Points. To put that into perspective, the only RBs with higher usage in Week 1 were Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, and Jahmyr Gibbs. As long as Judkins remains out of the lineup, Sampson has the potential to be a top 20 RB every week.
- As anticipated, Ashton Jeanty immediately took over as the RB1 for the Raiders, earning an impressive 36.8% opportunity share and a 79.2% rushing share. He concluded the week as a borderline RB1 in usage value with 13.4 Expected Fantasy Points, highlighting his potential as a top-12 RB this season. Surprisingly, the Raiders were one of the most pass-heavy offenses in Week 1, ranking third in Pass Rate Over Expected. However, this shouldn’t hinder Jeanty’s potential as long as he continues to secure the majority of the Raiders’ RB opportunities.
- At face value, Omarion Hampton had a disappointing debut with the Chargers, finishing outside of the top 25 in fantasy scoring. However, he did rank as the RB18 in usage value, despite a pass-heavy game plan from the Chargers. While his efficiency needs to improve, it was encouraging to see Hampton receive the majority of the RB opportunities in Jim Harbaugh’s offense.
- Tetairoa McMillan finished the week outside of the top 20 fantasy WRs. However, his usage value indicated that he could have had a much more productive week if he had connected on one or two more opportunities. He finished as a top 15 WR in expected fantasy points, commanding an impressive 26.5% target share and 40.5% air yards share. In short, he was clearly Bryce Young‘s WR1, and I anticipate more productive weeks in the near future.
- Even though he only produced 2.3 fantasy points, Elic Ayomanor’s usage was very encouraging. While he was outtargeted by Calvin Ridley, Ayomanor finished with a higher usage value in Week 1 as he received an absurd 45.9% air yards share. He was clearly an integral part of the offense, which should eventually translate into consistent fantasy production.
- By far the most surprising player on this list was Harold Fannin Jr. In his first game, he led all Browns receivers in target share (21.4%) and Expected Fantasy Points (13.5), while finishing the week as the TE2 in usage value. Even more encouraging, he was able to produce despite David Njoku’s 84% snap share. If the Browns continue to frequently use two-TE sets, Fannin could be a viable TE1 option most weeks.
Dynasty Stock Report
Emeka Egbuka – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, WR – Stock Up
Emeka Egbuka joined the NFL following a successful four-year career at Ohio State. Although he was sometimes overshadowed by the Buckeyes’ elite WR corps, his potential was always clear as Egbuka was one of the safest picks in dynasty drafts. For reference, my rookie model ranked him in the 91st percentile, placing him just behind Tetairoa McMillan in this year’s class.
Fast forward to Week 1, and we are already seeing glimpses of his tremendous upside as Egbuka finished with 67 receiving yards and two TDs against the Falcons. More impressively, Egbuka was by far one of the most efficient WRs this past week. On six opportunities, he finished as the WR6 in EPA per Target (1.00) and the WR1 in Fantasy Points Over Expected (+12.1). While that would indicate some potential for negative regression, Egbuka also commanded a 20% target share and 23% air yards share, which should lead to fantasy points in one of the most high-powered offenses in the league. With Chris Godwin likely out of the lineup for a little while longer, Egbuka’s dynasty value should continue to improve as he cements himself as one of Baker Mayfield’s top targets.
Isaac Guerendo – San Francisco 49ers, RB – Stock Down
With the recent acquisition of Brian Robinson, Isaac Guerendo’s dynasty stock took a significant hit as he was set to compete for RB2 duties behind Christian McCaffrey. Unfortunately, if their Week 1 usage was any indication, Guerendo may have just moved down the depth chart, as Robinson and McCaffrey were the only RBs involved on offense. While Guerendo was dealing with a shoulder injury leading up to the game, he was able to practice in full throughout the week, indicating that his limited role was not health-related. Assuming McCaffrey and Robinson remain in the lineup, Guerendo will likely be limited to a special teams role, hurting his long-term value in dynasty leagues.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt – Washington Commanders, RB – Stock Up
To be fully transparent, I was fairly low on Jacory “Bill” Croskey-Merritt as a prospect due to his late college breakout and seventh-round draft capital. However, at this point, his improved dynasty value is undeniable as he continues to carve out a significant role in the Commanders’ offense. In their matchup against the Giants, Austin Ekeler was still heavily involved as he led the backfield in Expected Fantasy Points and target share. On the other hand, Croskey-Merritt led them in total carries and was by far the most efficient rusher on the team. As you can see above, he led all RBs this past week in EPA (Expected Points Added) per attempt, ahead of players like Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, and Travis Etienne. Realistically, his efficiency will likely regress, so we need to see an improvement in his usage before we can comfortably start him in our lineups. Especially after finishing the game with only 6.5 Expected Fantasy Points, Croskey-Merritt’s Week 1 production is likely unsustainable unless he can carve out a larger share of the Commanders’ backfield opportunities. While I am tempering expectations, his efficient performance is an encouraging start to his career as his dynasty value continues to improve.
Joe Mixon – Houston Texans, RB – Stock Down
Joe Mixon has been dealing with an ankle injury that has caused him to miss the first four weeks of the season, as he was placed on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) list. Of greater concern is that Nick Caserio, the general manager of the Texans, has not committed to Mixon’s return, indicating that they will need to reevaluate his situation later this year. While I remain hopeful that Mixon will return this season, there has always been a concern that he could be nearing the end of his prime. RBs typically begin to experience a decline in production between the ages of 28 and 29. Additionally, it’s important to note that Mixon’s contract for 2026 is non-guaranteed, which would allow the Texans to release him and save a significant amount of cap space next year. If his ankle injury continues to be an issue, Mixon’s dynasty value could take a substantial hit in the upcoming offseason, as Houston may look to replace him with a younger option through free agency or the NFL draft.
Prospect Watch List
Makai Lemon could be following in the footsteps of successful USC receivers like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, and Jordan Addison, as he is poised to be one of the first receivers selected in the 2026 NFL draft. After a quiet freshman campaign, Lemon significantly improved in 2024, contributing nearly 24% of the team’s receiving yards and averaging 1.75 receiving yards per team pass attempt. While this marked a substantial leap, his 67th percentile market share production suggested further opportunity to take his game to another level. On a positive note, Lemon’s efficiency profile always stood out as one of the best in this class, ranking second in EPA per Target (0.79) and Success Rate (69%) over the last two years.
Fast forward to the 2025 season, Lemon is already off to an electric start. He is currently averaging an elite 4.35 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt, while accounting for over 30% of the team’s receiving production. Even more impressive, he is averaging a ridiculous 87.5% EPA Success Rate, highlighting just how consistently dominant he has been to start the year. While USC’s matchups were likely part of his productive start, it was still encouraging to see Lemon operate as the clear WR1 ahead of Ja’Kobi Lane. With some more challenging opponents coming up, keep an eye on Lemon’s production as he continues to cement himself as one of the top receivers in the 2026 class.
As we approach the 2026 NFL Draft, here is a list of the most productive college football WRs this season:
