Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 17
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between actual production and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE.
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 16:
- Despite a disappointing performance in Week 15, last week’s dynasty report highlighted that Tyrone Tracy was still leading the Giants’ backfield in usage value (expected fantasy points). That was once again the case in Week 16 as Tracy finished with nearly 4x the usage value as Devin Singletary. Equally important, he continues to lead the backfield in route participation (54%) and target share (10.8%), commanding a majority of their high-value touches at the running back position.
- Bucky Irving has been extremely consistent for dynasty managers in recent weeks. Excluding the game in which he left early due to a back injury, Irving has finished with double-digit fantasy points in each of his last five healthy games. On top of that, Irving has been a top-20 running back in my usage model, signaling that his production should be sustainable as we close out the season. With a couple of favorable matchups coming up, Irving should be locked in as an RB2 for fantasy managers.
- Xavier Worthy has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks, totaling double-digit expected fantasy points in four of his last five games. That includes back-to-back games finishing within the top 10 in usage value. In addition, he finished Week 16 with over 25% of the team’s targets and air yards, leading the Chiefs’ receivers in both metrics.
- Brian Thomas Jr. has accounted for over 25% of the team’s targets and air yards in four of his last five games. In fact, BTJ has finished as a WR1 in my usage model in four straight weeks, signaling elite usage for the Jaguars. With his recent surge in production, Thomas Jr. is arguably a top-10 dynasty wide receiver as we head into the offseason.
- It has been a rough stretch for Marvin Harrison Jr., who has finished outside of the top 24 in each of his last three games. A significant reason for that is his lack of consistent usage as the Cardinals remain one of the most run-heavy teams in neutral situations. In fact, they rank in the bottom 10 in Pass Rate Over Expected this season, relying heavily on James Conner to move the chains. So despite commanding over 20% of the team’s targets in 11 of 15 games, MHJ will remain a riskier flex option until Arizona decides to lean into their passing game.
- Jayden Daniels had an impressive performance, finishing as the overall QB1 in Week 17. Most impressively, Daniels was especially impactful on the ground, finishing with +10.3 rushing EPA (Expected Points Added). For context, that is the highest rushing EPA generated by a quarterback in a single game this season. With his consistent usage in the running game, Daniels will remain a top-tier QB1 in both usage and production as we close out the season.
Dynasty Stock Report
Rico Dowdle – Dallas Cowboys, RB
Stock Up
Since Ezekiel Elliott’s prime, the Cowboys have not had a consistent option at the running back position. As a result, this opened up an opportunity for Rico Dowdle to take over as their RB1. And over the last six weeks, we have seen his usage and efficiency steadily improve, leading to multiple top-15 performances. Even after a quieter game in Week 16, Dowdle is averaging:
- 13.7 Expected Fantasy Points (RB15)
- 35.4% Team Opportunity Share
- 6.9% Target Share
- 13.0 Half-PPR Points
In other words, Dowdle has been a reliable weapon for an offense that has had to reshape its identity without Dak Prescott. From a dynasty perspective, this does improve his long-term outlook. However, keep in mind that Dowdle is in the final year of his contract, which does put his future with the Cowboys at risk. Especially with a deeper running back class set to enter the league, I would not be shocked if Dallas did not extend him and, instead, used the draft to find their next Ezekiel Elliott. In fact, there are multiple mock drafts already labeling Dallas as a potential landing spot for Ashton Jeanty, who will likely be the first running back selected next spring. As a result, with so much uncertainty regarding Dowdle’s contract, dynasty managers should take advantage of his inflated dynasty value and trade him before the Cowboys pivot in a different direction.
MarShawn Lloyd – Green Bay Packers, RB
Stock Down
Entering the season, there was some hope that MarShawn Lloyd could carve out a consistent role in the Packers’ backfield after being selected in the third round. Unfortunately, Lloyd has only played in one game, dealing with multiple injuries since the start of the season. In addition, he was recently diagnosed with appendicitis, forcing him to miss additional time. On top of that, Jacobs has been one of the most productive running backs in the league, ranking as the RB5 in half-PPR scoring. So even if Lloyd returns later this year, he is unlikely to emerge as a major contributor as Jacobs should remain the lead running back for the foreseeable future. Long-term, however, Jacobs’ contract does give the Packers an option to cut him after this year, potentially saving a significant amount of cap space. However, considering Jacobs’ performance this season, it is very likely they will retain him for the majority of his contract. With that in mind, Lloyd’s dynasty value continues to trend in the wrong direction as he remains the RB3 on the Packers’ depth chart.
Tee Higgins – Cincinnati Bengals, WR
Stock Up
While Tee Higgins has missed multiple games this season, he remains one of the most productive wide receivers when healthy. In 10 games this year, Higgins has averaged a solid 24% targets per route run, earning and commanding opportunities at a high rate. In fact, his volume and usage rank within the top six so far this year, averaging:
- 26.8% Target Share
- 34.7% Air Yards Share
- 91% Route Participation
- 13.2 Expected Fantasy Points
Unfortunately, considering Higgins’ outstanding play, he may be forced to part ways with Cincinnati as they will also need to extend Ja’Marr Chase next offseason. And even though they have the cap space to do both, I would not be shocked if they let Higgins test free agency. While that does place some uncertainty on Higgins’ future, he should remain a borderline WR1 option regardless of where he lands. If he stays in Cincinnati, we already know that Joe Burrow is talented enough to sustain multiple fantasy-relevant wide receivers. If he decides to leave the Bengals, he will likely receive a massive contract to be a different team’s WR1. So regardless of where he lands, Higgins’ dynasty stock is trending in the right direction as he approaches free agency in 2025.
Ty Chandler – Minnesota Vikings, RB
Stock Down
With Aaron Jones approaching the end of his prime, many (including myself) believed that his days as an RB1 were in the past, potentially opening up a path for Ty Chandler to assume a more prominent role. Jones has clearly proven his doubters wrong, currently ranking as the RB9 in Expected Fantasy Points (14.3) this season. As a result, Chandler’s role in the Vikings’ offense has steadily declined, averaging less than 20% of the team’s offensive snaps since their bye week. In addition, he was recently demoted to RB3 on the depth chart as Minnesota re-acquired Cam Akers earlier this year. Dynasty managers will need to keep a close eye on the Vikings’ backfield as they approach the 2025 offseason with Chandler as the only running back still under contract. While I would not rule out Aaron Jones receiving a second short-term deal from Minnesota, I would not be surprised if they also leveraged the NFL draft to add some talent to their backfield. Regardless, based on their current depth chart, Chandler is almost guaranteed to receive some added competition as we head into next season.
Prospect Watch List
While Ashton Jeanty is the consensus RB1, there are multiple running backs in the 2025 draft who could emerge as immediate contributors. That includes Quinshon Judkins, a junior out of Ohio State, who is one of the most elusive and explosive running backs in this class. In fact, he led all Power 5 running backs in his first two seasons in missed tackles forced (154) and yards after contact (1,800), showcasing his ability to consistently generate positive yardage. From a production standpoint, Judkins started his career as one of the most productive true freshman running backs in the nation. As you can see above, he averaged an impressive 1.70 Yards per Team Play, which would rank in the 97th percentile among all drafted running backs since 2013. As a result, Judkins has one of the earliest breakout ages in this class at 18 years old.
Unfortunately, his first campaign would be his most efficient as his production would steadily decline in his final two seasons. In 2023, he would only average 4.5 yards per touch as he set career lows in nearly every metric. As a result, his season would only rank in the 68th percentile, marking a significant decline from his freshman year. Fast forward to 2024, Judkins transferred to Ohio State, forming one of the most talented running back committees with TreVeyon Henderson. As expected, Judkins’ production would take a sizable hit, commanding only 17.2% of the team’s total yards through 13 games. However, we should not hold that entirely against him as the Buckeyes evenly distribute their backfield opportunities among their two talented running backs in 2024.
With that in mind, how should we evaluate Judkins? For starters, assuming day-two capital, he still ranks in the 88th percentile in my rookie model. A significant reason for that is his early career production, which holds significant weight in his profile. In fact, Judkins will likely finish his career with a positive experience-adjusted production score (one of the most predictive college metrics), heavily driven by his true freshman campaign. So while he likely will rank behind players like Ashton Jeanty, Omarion Hampton, and TreVeyon Henderson, Judkins remains one of the most intriguing prospects in a stacked running back class.
For a list of prospects to keep an eye on as we head into the 2025 NFL Draft, below are the most productive CFB running backs this season:
