Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 16
Welcome back to another edition of the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines from a dynasty perspective as changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL.
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape.
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects.
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) is a metric synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between actual production and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on each week.
- Opportunity Share equates to the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on Bluesky @MarvinJE or Twitter @FF_MarvinE
Rookie Stats and Observations from Week 15:
- Despite entering the week with injuries, Isaac Guerendo would lead all rookie running backs in usage value (expected fantasy points) with 12.2 as he accounted for 40% of the 49ers’ opportunities. This now marks back-to-back games in which he received top-16 running back usage, indicating that he should be an RB2 most weeks based on his volume alone. In favorable matchups, however, Guerendo will continue to hold RB1 upside (as evidenced in Week 14) as the 49ers continue to be one of the more efficient offenses in the league.
- Even though he was battling multiple injuries, Bucky Irving still finished the week as a mid-tier RB2, totaling over 100 rushing yards for the second time in his young career. Keep in mind that Rachaad White was once again heavily involved, though that did not prevent Irving from finishing as a top-20 running back. I expect this trend to continue, with Irving being ranked as an RB2 in usage value for four of his last five games.
- While Tyrone Tracy Jr. finished the week outside of the top 30 running backs, he still led the Giants’ backfield in usage value with 10.3 Expected Fantasy Points. Singletary did lead the backfield in goal-line opportunities (two)—one of which he converted into a touchdown—while Tracy was stopped behind the line of scrimmage on his only goal-line carry. It also did not help that the Giants were down to their third-string quarterback (Tim Boyle), while also facing a significant deficit against the Ravens heading into the second half. Regardless, Tracy continues to lead the backfield in opportunities, so he should bounce back in a more competitive matchup against the Falcons and Colts over the next two weeks.
- Brian Thomas Jr. continues to trend in the right direction, finishing as a WR1 in usage value in each of his last three games. For context, since Week 13, Thomas has been the WR3 in Expected Fantasy Points, behind only Ja’Marr Chase and Davante Adams. He has also been averaging an impressive 31% target share and 45% air yards share since their bye week. Assuming his elite usage continues, BTJ should remain a borderline WR1 as we close out the season.
- Xavier Worthy set a career-high in Expected Fantasy Points (16.9), averaging a 29% target share and 27% air yards share against the Browns. He also continues to lead the Chiefs’ wide receivers in route participation, finishing above 65% in every game this season. While Worthy remains a risky high-upside option, we may need to temper expectations if Patrick Mahomes’ ankle injury keeps him out for multiple weeks.
- Jalen Coker returned to the lineup and picked up right where he left off. In back-to-back games, Coker has received over 20% of the team’s targets and over 30% of their air yards. More importantly, his return negatively impacted Xavier Legette’s usage, participating in only 34% of the team’s routes (fourth among Carolina wide receivers). In short, Coker seems to be cemented as the WR2 for this offense as Legette is a distant fourth on the depth chart. Regardless, Adam Thielen continued to operate as the WR1, finishing the week with a 27% target share for the Panthers.
- Despite only finishing with 17.5 fantasy points, Drake Maye was one of the most efficient quarterbacks this past week. He finished within the top 15 in EPA per Play (0.14), while also ranking within the top 10 in Success Rate (56.7%) and Completion Percentage Over Expected (+12.0). While he remains a volatile QB2, Maye continues to flash potential as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league.
Dynasty Stock Report
Chase Brown – Cincinnati Bengals, RB
Stock Up
Following Joe Mixon‘s trade to the Texans, there was a sizable opportunity for either Zack Moss or Chase Brown to emerge as an RB1 for the Bengals. While Moss initially led the Bengals’ backfield, Chase Brown‘s role progressively grew starting in Week 4. And when Moss was placed on injured reserve, Brown’s usage and production substantially increased, solidifying his position as the Bengals’ primary running back. Since Week 9, Brown has averaged a:
- 85.6% Rushing Share
- 14.7% Target Share
- 66% Route Participation
- 20.6 Expected Fantasy Points (RB1)
- 20.4 Half-PPR Points
While his production has been elite, as a day-three pick, the risk remains that he could be replaced next year. However, there are a couple of reasons to believe he could retain the RB1 role for the Bengals. First off, since 2000, only three second-year running backs have averaged more half-PPR points than Brown: Domanick Williams, Kyren Williams, and Devonta Freeman. In other words, day-three running backs rarely produce at Brown’s level. The few who do usually stay fantasy-relevant for multiple seasons. Secondly, with Tee Higgins approaching free agency and several needs on the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals are better off not spending their cap space on a replacement running back. As a result, Brown should remain their primary running back for the foreseeable future, justifying his value as a borderline RB1 in dynasty leagues.
A.D. Mitchell – Indianapolis Colts, WR
Stock Down
Despite receiving day-two capital, A.D. Mitchell was one of the toughest players to evaluate in the 2024 draft after averaging only a 15.6% receiving yards market throughout his collegiate career. Even after breaking out in his third campaign, his junior season would only rank in the 48th percentile among all drafted wide receivers since 2013. In short, there were multiple red flags in his production profile. Unfortunately, he has yet to emerge in the NFL, ranking fourth among Colts’ receivers in route participation (39%) through 15 weeks. From a production standpoint, Mitchell has finished only once within the top 24, averaging a 12% target share in his rookie year. In his defense, the Colts have rotated quarterbacks multiple times this season, which makes it difficult for any receiver to establish a rhythm. However, if he continues to play behind both Josh Downs and Alec Pierce (both under contract next season), Mitchell is unlikely to break out at any point with the Colts.
Zach Charbonnet – Seattle Seahawks, RB
Stock Up
With Kenneth Walker missing multiple games this year, Zach Charbonnet has received several opportunities to showcase his ability to lead a backfield. In four games as their RB1, he was a borderline top-10 option, performing as one of the most efficient fantasy running backs this season. As the starter for the Seahawks, Charbonnet is averaging:
- 36.4% Opportunity Share
- 14.7% Target Share
- 14.7 Expected Fantasy Points
- +7.2 Fantasy Points Over Expected
- 21.9 Half-PPR Points
While Walker’s return is imminent, it does not change the fact that Charbonnet remains one of the most valuable backups in the league. Especially with Walker approaching a contract season, I would not be surprised if Charbonnet emerges as the lead running back for Seattle by the end of the 2025 campaign. Regardless, he should already be valued as a top-30 running back in dynasty leagues, holding RB1 upside if and when he finally receives the opportunity to lead Seattle’s backfield.
Nick Chubb – Cleveland Browns, RB
Stock Down
There was not a single player I was rooting for more than Nick Chubb, who has dealt with multiple devastating knee injuries in his career. Especially after missing most of the 2023 season, I was looking forward to seeing him back on the field, dominating like he did in years past. Unfortunately, his 2024 campaign has abruptly come to an end after suffering a season-ending injury, breaking his foot in the Browns’ matchup against the Chiefs. Considering this was a potential contract season, it was truly a heartbreaking way for his year to end. From a dynasty perspective, this clouds his future significantly as he approaches his age-30 season. Especially with a deeper running back class in next year’s draft, his dynasty value could be drastically impacted depending on where he lands in free agency.
Prospect Watch List
TreVeyon Henderson is a tougher running back to evaluate due to the multiple factors that have impacted his analytical profile. As you can see above, Henderson started his career on a high note as he was an integral part of a stacked 2021 Buckeyes offense, averaging 1.71 Yards per Team Play in 13 games. If we compare his true freshman season to all drafted running backs since 2013, his campaign would rank in the 97th percentile. Unfortunately, his second season would be impacted by injuries as he played through a broken sesamoid bone that limited his ability to push off the turf. As a result, his efficiency declined as he also split touches with Miyan Williams. That led to his least productive campaign as he only accounted for 15% of the team’s offense in eight games.
With an entire offseason to recover, he entered his junior campaign fully healthy, which led to a career year across multiple metrics. In 2023, Henderson set career-highs in receiving yards market share (9%), scrimmage yards per team play (1.85), and weighted dominator rating (29%). While his production was not entirely elite (79th percentile), it was still significantly improved from his injury-riddled 2022 campaign. Despite trending in the right direction, many expected his production to decline in his senior year as he was set to share the backfield with Quinshon Judkins—a projected second-round pick in next year’s draft. As a result, his overall usage and production declined in 2024 as he only averaged a 16.2% weighted dominator rating. Despite that, he did have his most efficient campaign on a per-touch basis—setting a career-high 7.0 yards per touch.
While there are flaws in his production profile, a lot of it can be explained by injuries and roster competition. Despite that, Henderson remains one of the more complete running backs in his class. He is a capable pass blocker, an outstanding receiving threat, and an elusive runner with excellent vision. Barring an unexpected drop in draft capital, Henderson will be one of the highest-rated running backs in my rookie model (projected in the +85th percentile).
For a list of prospects to keep an eye on as we head into the 2025 NFL Draft, below are the most productive CFB running backs this season:
