Fantasy Football Dynasty Report for Week 16
Welcome back to the Dynasty Report!
Every week, this article will highlight the most impactful storylines for fantasy football from a dynasty perspective. Since the season never truly ends in a dynasty league, changes throughout the regular season can significantly impact a player’s dynasty value beyond this year. To give you a holistic view of the dynasty landscape, you can expect the following segments each week:
- Rookie Opportunity Dashboard: Overview of Rookie Performances in the NFL
- Dynasty Stock Report: Recap of the Risers & Fallers in the Dynasty Landscape
- Prospect Watch List: Production Profiles & Analysis for CFB Prospects
And if you are looking for an even deeper look into dynasty football, be sure to tune in every week to the Fantasy Footballers Dynasty Podcast with Borg, Betz, and a Baller!
Rookie Opportunity Dashboard
To keep the dashboard concise, I will focus only on the most fantasy-relevant rookies at each position. For reference:
- Expected Fantasy Points (xFP) are synonymous with volume and usage. We want to target rookies that rank highly in this metric, as it could potentially signal future opportunity and fantasy success.
- Fantasy Points Over Expected or FPOE signifies efficiency relative to a player’s usage. FPOE is the variance between each player’s actual fantasy points and their expected fantasy value. This metric will usually fluctuate and regress to the mean (zero), which is why we isolate it from their baseline production (xFP) to determine which players we can rely on.
- Opportunity Share is the percentage of targets and rush attempts that a player accounts for on their team.
If you want me to include other metrics or have any questions on the data below, let me know on X or Twitter @FF_MarvinE. Data courtesy of @nflfastR.
Rookie Observations after Week 15:
- It was a relatively quiet week for rookie running backs, in part due to Bijan Robinson’s lack of usage. For the first time in his last seven games, Robinson finished with fewer than 15 opportunities. While his fumble did impact his usage, Robinson was still splitting touches with Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier in the first half. Fortunately, the Indianapolis Colts are one of the best matchups for running backs, so I anticipate a much better performance from Bijan this week. This is assuming that Arthur Smith does not continue to bench him after his untimely fumble from Week 15.
- Jahmyr Gibbs had his most productive performance in his last five games with 23.8 half-PPR points. However, his usage remains limited in the Lions’ offense. As you can see above, he finished the game with only 10.2 Expected Points, which ranked outside of the top 20 this past week. In addition, he only received 22% of the team’s opportunities, which ranked well behind David Montgomery at 33.3%. Based on these recent trends, I would temper my expectations as Gibbs’ efficiency is likely to regress this week.
- Rashee Rice once again led the Kansas City Chiefs wide receivers in usage with 11.2 Expected Fantasy Points, finishing the game with a 25.7% target share and 24% targets per route run. Rice also set a career-high in route participation at 93%. At this point in the season, Rice can be safely started as a WR2 with upside in all formats.
- Dontayvion Wicks’ usage has slowly improved over the last four weeks, culminating in a career game in Week 15. Against the Buccaneers, Wicks finished with 76% route participation and 23% targets per route run. He also set a career-high in target share (19.4%) and air yards share (24.7%). Unfortunately, with Christian Watson set to return in the coming weeks, Wicks’ usage could be drastically impacted as we close out the season.
- Jordan Addison led all rookies in Week 15 with 26.1 half-PPR points. However, his production was heavily driven by efficiency at +16.2 Fantasy Points Over Expected. So while he did finish the week as the WR1, his usage value ranked well outside of the top 24 as Justin Jefferson continued to dominate the targets and air yards in the Vikings’ offense. With that being said, Addison could have another productive week despite his inconsistent usage as Minnesota is set to face a Detroit defense that struggles to defend the wide receiver position.
- Tucker Kraft set a career-high in route participation (93%) and Expected Fantasy Points (9.6) as he continues to be more involved with Luke Musgrave out of the lineup. In addition, it was encouraging to see that two of his six targets this past week came in the red zone. As long as Musgrave is on injured reserve, Kraft can be viewed as a high-end TE2 in most formats.
- Aidan O’Connell finished Week 15 with the most productive game of his career, throwing for four touchdowns on only 34 attempts against the Chargers. While he did finish the week as a top 10 quarterback in EPA per Play (0.32), he only totaled a -7.3 Completion Percentage Over Expected (QB25). This implies that his performance was likely driven by the favorable matchup, facing a Chargers secondary that struggles to contain the quarterback position. Considering this was likely an outlier performance, I expect O’Connell’s efficiency to regress against a much tougher Chiefs defense in Week 17.
Dynasty Stock Report
Sam LaPorta – Detroit Lions, TE
Stock Up
Over the last decade of fantasy football, we have only had one rookie tight end finish in the top five in half-PPR points per game: Evan Engram – who was the TE4 in 2017. Sam LaPorta could be the next player to join this short list as he is currently on pace to finish as the TE2 this season. Through week 15, LaPorta is averaging:
- 21% Target Share
- 23% Air Yards Share
- 80% Route Participation
- 9.5 Expected Fantasy Points
LaPorta’s performance in his first season is a great example of why production and efficiency matter for college prospects as tight ends with a positive production profile usually have a higher chance of breaking out in the NFL. From a dynasty perspective, LaPorta is already a contender to be the TE1, given his impressive performance. In fact, Keep Trade Cut has him currently ranked as the highest-rated dynasty tight end. Although Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson are also in the running for the TE1 spot, LaPorta might just be a more valuable dynasty asset, considering his age, offensive ecosystem, and recent surge in production.
Since 2013, we have only seen one rookie Tight End finish in the top 5 in half-PPR per game:
Evan Engram with 9.4 PPG (TE4)
The next rookie TE who could join this list?
Sam LaPorta – currently TE2 with 12.2 PPG pic.twitter.com/qa395PgpRu
— Marvin Elequin (@FF_MarvinE) December 19, 2023
Austin Ekeler – Los Angeles Chargers, RB
Stock Down
It has been a disappointing year for Austin Ekeler. After producing four straight RB1 seasons in points per game, many (including myself) assumed Ekeler had at least one more productive season in him before he inevitably hit the age cliff that we so often see with running backs later in their careers. Historically, we generally see that decline after their age-28 season. Unfortunately, Ekeler may already be in the midst of that decline. Not only is he averaging the lowest Expected Fantasy Value (usage) since his 2020 season, but his efficiency has dropped significantly as well, averaging the lowest yards per touch (4.9) of his career. Coupled with his impending free agency and uncertain future, his dynasty ADP has dropped to RB24. With no guarantee that he will return to the Chargers, I would not be surprised if he found himself outside of the top 30 in dynasty value as we head into the 2024 season.
Jayden Reed – Green Bay Packers, WR
Stock Up
Outside of Rashee Rice and Puka Nacua, Jayden Reed has been one of the biggest risers among rookie wide receivers over the last few weeks. Since Week 12, Reed is third among rookie wide receivers in Expected Fantasy Points (usage value), behind only Rice and Nacua with an 11.6 xFP. In that timespan, Reed has been a focal point of the Packers’ offense, averaging the following:
- 22.3% Target Share
- 15.8% Air Yards Share
- 60% Route Participation
- 11.8 Half-PPR Points
Naturally, there is still plenty of room for improvement in his usage. Because he plays primarily out of the slot, his depth of target (or air yards) and route participation are lower than most of the top wide receivers. However, when he is on the field, the Packers aim to involve him early and often. Over the last four weeks, he has led the team with an elite 33% Targets per Route Run, while also accounting for 6.7% of the team’s rushing attempts. In fact, Deebo Samuel and Reed are the only two wide receivers with a +5% rushing share over the last month of football. Coupled with his usage as a receiver, Reed is shaping up to be a reliable flex option for fantasy managers. So assuming his toe injury is not a long-term concern, Reed’s dynasty value should only improve as we close out the season.
Tank Bigsby – Jacksonville Jaguars, RB
Stock Down
Remember when the dynasty community was worried about Tank Bigsby taking away significant touches from Travis Etienne?
Through 14 games, Etienne has been far and away the lead running back for the Jaguars, accounting for over 33% of the team’s opportunities. That translates to an Expected Fantasy Value of 14.9 xFP, ranking RB5 on the season. In other words, his role in the backfield has even improved year over year. On the other hand, Bigsby has taken a backseat to both Etienne and D’Ernest Johnson, averaging only the third-highest opportunity share in the Jaguars’ backfield at 4.6%. And through 14 games, he has exceeded five opportunities only twice, while totaling only ONE rush attempt in his last three games. Despite his declining dynasty value, Bigsby should be a priority trade target for all dynasty managers who roster Etienne. With Etienne’s fifth-year option looming, the Jaguars could move on after next season, which could lead to an expanded opportunity for Bigsby down the line. Until then, his production will continue to be limited as Etienne is clearly the RB1 for Jacksonville.
Prospect Watch List
While the 2024 class lacks depth at tight end and running back, it makes up for it with several intriguing prospects at the wide receiver position. Naturally, the dynasty community is enamored by the upside of Marvin Harrion Jr. and Malik Nabers, though we should not forget about some of the other high-upside receivers in this class. That includes Xavier Worthy, a three-year prospect from the University of Texas. If you read my offseason article titled “An Early Look at the 2024 Wide Receiver Class,” you already know how much I like Worthy’s draft profile. As a four-star recruit, he was an immediate difference-maker as a true freshman, averaging over 37% of the team’s receiving yards in his first season. To put his production into perspective, his 2.84 Receiving Yards per Team Pass Attempt ranks in the 99th percentile among all true freshman wide receivers drafted since 2013.
Unfortunately, multiple injuries affected his production in his final two seasons as he never met or exceeded his true freshman numbers. For context, Worthy reportedly played with a broken hand in 2022, while dealing with lower body injuries in 2023. Despite that, he still finished both seasons with respectable numbers, accounting for over 24% of the team’s receiving yards in both campaigns. Assuming his injury history does not affect him long-term, I am still a believer in Worthy’s upside, especially after his elite true freshman season. Naturally, draft capital will be crucial for his dynasty outlook. As of today, the NFL Mockdraft Database has him projected as an early second-round pick. A few months ago, he was projected even higher as a first-round selection. Assuming he is drafted somewhere in that range, my prospect model has him tentatively graded in the 90th percentile. As a result, Worthy should still be one of the highest-ranked receivers in this class and firmly entrenched in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts.